elbows
Well-Known Member
They tweet a lot and a number of their tweets have featured here of late. Which ones are you referring to?
Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion
- Thread starter Sasaferrato
- Start date
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
I was talking to a friend in San Francisco a couple of months back, he's had both jabs as he's a teacher while his wife (not a teacher) was waiting for a second jab. In some ways they're approaching things better by jabbing people who're needed in work than our just doing it by age and vulnerability. At least in sf
cupid_stunt
Chief seagull hater & farmerbarleymow's nemesis.
The top 25 hotspots of where the Delta variant is rising rapidly, based on data from the Zoe app.
metro.co.uk
Map reveals 25 areas in UK where cases of Indian variant are rising fastest
Stirling in Scotland now has the highest prevalence of the variant and cases are still going up.
metro.co.uk
Sunray
Its sunny somewhere.
Download starts tomorrow, it's the tester festival.
Totally agree though. Far too quick to demonise groups, the young, the maskless, the ravers etc.
Afaik this article is still true. Perhaps the Kumba Mela was, but it's common to sleep in dorms which isn't very COVID safe.
How the beach 'super-spreader' myth may have hampered UK Covid reaction
News that no outbreaks were linked to beach trips highlights important message about outdoor transmission, says expert
Even in the winter, we probably could have done something more than the 1 person in the park outdoors to improve peoples quality of life without impacting the health service.
Perhaps I've misunderstood. Download has been postponed this year.Download starts tomorrow, it's the tester festival.
Totally agree though. Far too quick to demonise groups, the young, the maskless, the ravers etc.
Afaik this article is still true. Perhaps the Kumba Mela was, but it's common to sleep in dorms which isn't very COVID safe.
How the beach 'super-spreader' myth may have hampered UK Covid reaction
News that no outbreaks were linked to beach trips highlights important message about outdoor transmission, says expertwww.theguardian.com
Even in the winter, we probably could have done something more than the 1 person in the park outdoors to improve peoples quality of life without impacting the health service.
Sunray
Its sunny somewhere.
You did, starts tomorrow. Two-stage test event.
I am sitting here grumpy as I was invited to work it but there were limited places and I was really in a groove at work and didn't see my alert so missed out.
BAH
AverageJoe
...
I was wondering whether P7 were getting a completely free pass. 
elbows
Well-Known Member
I will try to wind down for a few days before the Monday announcement. I may not be too successful if there are lots of interesting news items.
Another 'reformed Nick Triggle' article:
Sounds like the government have asked the NHS to start differentiating between people hospitalised because of their Covid symptoms, and people in hospital for other reasons who test positive for Covid (presumably including people who catch it in hospital). It will be good to see this detail, just so long as the government dont use this split to distort or suppress one side of this picture, and dont use it to justify terrible pandemic policies.
www.independent.co.uk
Another 'reformed Nick Triggle' article:
June 21: Why lockdown easing may be delayed
The UK should be braced for a surge in infections - but what's coming will be quite different to before.
www.bbc.co.uk
Sounds like the government have asked the NHS to start differentiating between people hospitalised because of their Covid symptoms, and people in hospital for other reasons who test positive for Covid (presumably including people who catch it in hospital). It will be good to see this detail, just so long as the government dont use this split to distort or suppress one side of this picture, and dont use it to justify terrible pandemic policies.
NHS told to identify patients actually sick from Covid-19 separately to those testing positive
Exclusive: Changes to the way hospitals collect data will make the impact of the virus on the NHS look better
www.independent.co.uk
elbows
Well-Known Member
They are an early glimpse at the picture. We may expect ratios of vaccinated/partially vaccinated/fully vaccinated people with Delta who still end up hospitalised to change over time, if the outbreaks spread into older age groups and if there are hospital outbreaks, care home outbreaks etc. Lots of itfs, just have to wait and see.
Here is a BBC article about the PHE technical report:
Covid: Unvaccinated most at risk from Delta variant
There have been nearly 30,000 new cases of the variant in the UK in the past week.
www.bbc.co.uk
The real bad news for now is the risk of being hospitalised being double with this variant, and the 60% increased transmission. These have big implications for the burden that will be felt in this wave. If these estimates hold, then they point towards the scary wave graphs shown in previous modelling, rather than the lower end of projections.
bimble
floofy
Can’t help it I think this should have been anticipated & understood, just by looking properly at what was happening in India, the rates of infection & hospitalisation within families etc. It was pretty plain to see, imo. But I suppose everyone was hoping the vaccination rate would be our salvation.
elbows
Well-Known Member
Much of the media framing of events continues to be about the next step of unlocking, rather than the possibility that we will actually have to go backwards to cope with this variant.
Still find people in such articles saying what a difficult decision delaying the next step will be. Its actually become a much easier decision in the last week or so, apart from all the shitheads in the press etc wanking on about freedom day.
Whether we have to go backwards to cope depends in great part on the strength of the wall that vaccines have built against high levels of disease in older people, and the ability of the vaccine-induced picture to protect hospitals and care homes. As such I do not have a confident prediction as to whether we will need to go backwards, but it is certainly an option I would not bet against.
June 21: Delay lockdown lifting, urge local health leaders
The government is warned that unlocking in England on 21 June risks the country "going backwards".
www.bbc.co.uk
Still find people in such articles saying what a difficult decision delaying the next step will be. Its actually become a much easier decision in the last week or so, apart from all the shitheads in the press etc wanking on about freedom day.
Whether we have to go backwards to cope depends in great part on the strength of the wall that vaccines have built against high levels of disease in older people, and the ability of the vaccine-induced picture to protect hospitals and care homes. As such I do not have a confident prediction as to whether we will need to go backwards, but it is certainly an option I would not bet against.
elbows
Well-Known Member
You were far ahead of the picture being painted in the UK as a result of the fact you did pay attention to that stuff.
You werent alone, privately these fears will have been present in a significant proportion of the relevant sceintific and expert communities in this country, even when they werent shouting about it publicly.
bimble
floofy
So a third of the people who are known to have died after catching the delta variant had been fully vaccinated 2 weeks or more before?
That really doesn’t seem like great news does it. That seems like relying on vaccination and no behavioural measures would be a kind of madness, given the rest of the stuff that’s being learned about it.
That really doesn’t seem like great news does it. That seems like relying on vaccination and no behavioural measures would be a kind of madness, given the rest of the stuff that’s being learned about it.
cupid_stunt
Chief seagull hater & farmerbarleymow's nemesis.
Very much depends on factors like age & underlying health conditions in those 12, compared to the other 30 deaths.
bimble
floofy
How so? I mean even if those 12 vaccinated people were very old & all had underlying conditions, whilst the other 30 were neither, how would that change things greatly ? I’m just not following what you mean.
elbows
Well-Known Member
Not quite a third.
A lot of people were encouraged to get the wrong idea about how much pandemic weight vaccines could carry on their own. I've been boring on about this for most of 2021. In great part because as far as I'm concerned, even without this variant it is incredibly stupid to manage a pandemic at this stage via vaccines alone, with all behaviours returned to the old normality.
Even without this Delta variant dominating in the UK, earlier modelling suggested there could have been a notable wave this summer.
elbows
Well-Known Member
For example a SAGE modelling group paper from the end of March said this:
cupid_stunt
Chief seagull hater & farmerbarleymow's nemesis.
If it means fairly healthy people are not dying after 2 jabs, but fairly healthy unvaccinated people are, and bearing in mind most people that have had 2 jabs will be somewhat older than those that haven't, so without that second jab would be at greater risk of dying, it makes a big different.
The devil is in the details, when the figures are that low.
R at 1.2-1.4 now
eta - in England
That low?
I'm sceptical. I suppose its an average. I reckon most big urban areas will be closer to 1.7 / 1.8.
two sheds
Least noticed poster 2007
I hear from a neighbour that a load of journalists in a Falmouth hotel are having to isolate because of coronavirus detected there. I said I hope they include Mail journalists who are all gung ho about getting out of lockdown. He said "yes they brought it with them 
"
Correction: St Ives hotel
"Correction: St Ives hotel
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elbows
Well-Known Member
Those R estimates are usually out of date by the time we hear of them. And yes there will be substantial variation between different places, cohorts and settings.
Its possible to derive estimates of such numbers from other publicly available data, though its not something I attempt myself. Others do though, eg:
Its possible to derive estimates of such numbers from other publicly available data, though its not something I attempt myself. Others do though, eg:
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