Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[LDC]

Kick me for my optimistic delusions... but surely they won't relax restrictions on the 21st? Cases and hospitalizations are going up significantly now, even under this set of restrictions, if they get relaxed even further things will be out of control very quickly?

 

[glitch hiker]

A couple of weeks ago, we first went back over 3,000 cases a day, yesterday it tipped over 6,000, today it's gone over 7,500 new cases, 7-day average up 66%.

Definitely a third wave, IMO.

I would say theyd be fools to open now but...

 

[Teaboy]

Definitely a third wave, IMO.

Ceratinly looks that way. All eyes now on the hospitalization numbers.

I would say theyd be fools to open now but...

but indeed.

 

[elbows]

Kick me for my optimistic delusions... but surely they won't relax restrictions on the 21st? Cases and hospitalizations are going up significantly now, even under this set of restrictions, if they get relaxed even further things will be out of control very quickly?

The data and the changing mood music and words from various quarters have set the scene for a delay. So thats which direction I lean towards, but I like to hedge my bets and dont like to be surprised, so I keep the other possibilities open in my mind. If they dont do what we expect, I will wait to hear their choice of justifications before getting into depth on the details.

 

[zora]

The thing I don't get is - the 'end' of restrictions was surely not meant to end testing, self-isolation for positive cases and quarantine for contacts? And while that's still ongoing, surely high case numbers, even if they didn't lead to a strain on the health service, are hugely disruptive to people's lives? As has been seen already in the huge numbers of children who continue to miss school, but it's surely shit as well for businesses with staff affected, and for people booking events/holidays and not being able to go?

Eta: Just had a little google around the topic, and found some articles from beginning of May in which the idea of daily lateral flow testing replacing quarantine was pitched, pending a study outcome - seems like the trial that somehow Gove got on...

 

[elbows]

Yes and there would probably have been a whole host of other terrible ideas for us to rage about by now if their review into social distancing etc measures had not been delayed.

 

[FridgeMagnet]

A couple of weeks ago, we first went back over 3,000 cases a day, yesterday it tipped over 6,000, today it's gone over 7,500 new cases, 7-day average up 66%.

But there are a lot of stories and comments about how this doesn't really matter because we've "broken the link between cases and deaths".

 

[elbows]

But there are a lot of stories and comments about how this doesn't really matter because we've "broken the link between cases and deaths".

I would certainly expect that if the government press ahead with final stages, or do other shit when it comes down to the detail, this will form a major part of their justification.

Certainly it was a big part of the framing they put in place months ago, around the time when they originally announced the unlocking plans. "cases and R will rise as we unlock, but dont worry about it in the ways we did previously' was part of that framing, but this variant has complicated matters and there are still limits as to how much bad news in data that stuff can absorb without dying on its arse.

I tend to complain that what is described by some as 'breaking the link between cases and hospitalisations/deaths' is actually a gradual weakening of such links, changing the ratios between these things, not utterly smashing all links. But those who have been coming out with that sort of thing this week are still really keen to push the language beyond reasonable limits. Even when the likes of Hancock were conceding that the links were not yet completely broken, I think he then used another inappropriate word such as severed!

The extent to which immunity acquired via vaccination and via previous infection is able to reduce these links is the billion dollar question when it comes to the size of this wave, how many u-turns will be required to cope with it, etc. There is still something in recent data that optimists etc can latch onto to maintain such hopes in their largest form, eg by looking at the ages of people being hospitalised as hospitalisations rise. Given the apparent features of the Delta variant, I consider it unwise to make confident statements about what the reality will turn out to be at this stage.

Unknowns about this sort of thing, and the power of the Delta variant are the primary reasons why a large range of possibilities still exist in my mind when it comes to the size of this wave in terms of hospitalisations and deaths. It is not very likely that I will be able to narrow this range a lot until we see for ourselves what actually happens. Other factors include human behaviours and how seriously people still take the threat of this virus. Given the 'they think its all over' shit thats been encouraged and highly sought in many minds these days, things dont look too promising on that front either.

 

[elbows]

Another factor relates to timing - some who favour an approach that really tests our luck in the 'variant vs vaccine' battle would probably have been hoping that this wave built up at a fairly slow rate, in order that english school summer holidays arrived, with their associated reduction in R, in time to do some of the heavy lifting in the battle against this wave. Again I am not terribly optimistic about whether this variant and peoples behaviours and what is already open will allow that sort of timing to work out. Its obviously somewhat different timing in Scotland as their holidays come sooner, but they also seem to be ahead in terms of the wave. Well I say ahead, maybe not ahead of the North West of England, but rather other regions and nations.

 

[elbows]

Now if I place to one side my standard desire to keep an open mind and hedge my bets, I would now be very tempted to say:

EMERGENCY, EMERGENCY, hideous wave with horrific potential. Adjust your expectations now if you havent already. Be prepared for some bad times ahead, far beyond a delay to final steps.

But there is still room for me to be wrong about that. But I must warn people that the higher end of the range of possibilities I consider plausible are a bloody nightmare. I so badly need to be wrong about this. I so hope I am wrong. The last thing I want is for us to be facing the worst wave yet, with a lot more mess on many fronts. And there are a bunch of ways that I can turn out to be wrong on this, lets hope one or more of them prove to be valid! I've been warning all this year about the limits to how much pandemic weight I think vaccines can reasonably be certain to achieve on their own. I do not want those warnings to turn into reality. They might, they might not, in which case I can retire from the pandemic in peace (at least for this period).

 

[elbows]

That last message is partly sponsored by the fact that when I decided last weekend to start using optimists, certain sorts of rightwingers etc as an experimental guide, eg by monitoring their response to new data over time, I was expecting a slower evolution of their stance, But some of them have really started to fear that their expectations for a moderate wave are already very far adrift from the data we are actually seeing at this stage. One of my other motivations for listening to them was supposed to help me find some balance between their views and my default assumptions and attitude, but the opposite has happened, some of their attitudes have changed so much so quicly that its actually made me more afraid of the scale of whats to come than I was before.

 

[magneze]

Today's stats seem to show a doubling of cases in a week.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Today's stats seem to show a doubling of cases in a week.

If you call a 66% average increase over a week, a doubling of cases in a week, yes they do.

 

[elbows]

This is really not the week I want to see daily UK vaccines given stats doing what they've been doing in recent days either.

 

[magneze]

If you call a 66% average increase over a week, a doubling of cases in a week, yes they do.

OK. Yes I've misread a digit in the figures I was looking at.

 

[weepiper]

Covid in Scotland: Recorded cases in children reach highest level

The number of weekly cases among 0-14 year olds is now higher than in early January, figures show.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[elbows]

 

[elbows]

 

[cuppa tee]

it took me three clicks from that tweet to get to someone telling me that Dr Hillary off breakfast telly is one of Bill Gates henchmen and that the variants are all made up, (via a load of people saying ‘open up the nightclubs it’s just a cold)

 

[elbows]

Mood music changes have probably been sposored not just by recent data but by updated modelling:

Sage modelling warns of risk of ‘substantial’ Covid third wave

Growing pessimism over 21 June reopening plan amid fears of surge in cases to rival January’s second wave

www.theguardian.com

New modelling for the government’s Sage committee of experts has highlighted the risk of a “substantial third wave” of infections and hospitalisations, casting doubt on whether the next stage of Boris Johnson’s Covid roadmap can go ahead as planned on 21 June.

Government sources suggested the outlook was now more pessimistic but stressed that a decision would be taken after assessing a few more days’ worth of data on the effect that rising infections are having on hospitalisations.

Johnson is understood to be personally frustrated at the prospect of delaying the reopening, but a No 10 source said there were now clearly signs for concern in the data.

Key ministers and officials are expected to discuss a range of options on Sunday, when Johnson will still be hosting the G7, including a two- to four-week delay, as well as the possibility of a watered-down reopening that keeps some rules in place.

A Whitehall source said it was “broadly correct” that the outlook was now more pessimistic. “Cases are obviously higher and they are growing quickly,” the source said.

Prof Neil Ferguson, of Imperial College London, said modelling updated this week suggested there was a risk of a surge in infections and hospitalisations that could rival the second wave in January.

“There is a risk of a substantial third wave,” Ferguson said. “It could be substantially lower than the second wave or it could be of the same order of magnitude, and that critically depends on how effective the vaccines are at protecting people against hospitalisation and death.”

There is really quite a lot more detail in the article than I've quoted there, I havent managed to highlight every important point with these quotes.

 

[elbows]

One more quote which still doesnt complete this collection of important quotes from the article but without which my previous quotes may be quite off balance.

Evidence is firming up around the Delta variant being 60% more transmissible than the Alpha variant, with estimates ranging from 40% and 80%. The variant is somewhat resistant to vaccines, particularly after one dose.

While Ferguson believes we may see fewer deaths in the third wave compared with in January, the latest modelling does not rule out what he called a “disastrous” third wave if transmission and vaccine resistance are at the higher end of the best estimates.

 

[elbows]

Too many things are aligning into perfect storm territory. Vaccines are our storm shelter. I hope the roof doesnt get blown off.

 

[Sunray]

I found Tim Spectors video today very interesting. Saying London’s R value is at 1.8 so look out for that by next week.
The other notable thing he said, from the beginning of May the symptoms have changed.

It’s now very like a cold and they are starting to think this is driving infection, people are going about their business thinking they have a moderate cold. Headache, sore throat and runny nose. Loss of taste is rarely reported, coughing is number 5 in the list.
If you aren’t vaccinated or have only had one dose and you get a cold, which is unusual at this time of year, get tested.

 

[maomao]

And there are other colds going round. I've got one at the moment though I've had one jab and have been doing daily lateral flow tests since it came on (all negative).

 

[wtfftw]

The narrow symptom list has always been an error imo. But there was testing capacity and disruption to think of. In theory pretty much every household is doing twice weekly lateral flows at the mo. I'd be interested to know if that's really happening.

 

[IC3D]

It has always seemed likely it will become a common cold. That's a good thing, going away with a whimper hopefully now.

 

[Raheem]

In theory pretty much every household is doing twice weekly lateral flows at the mo. I'd be interested to know if that's really happening.

Eh? Some households, but I don't think it's anything close to every household. Mine hasn't done a single one.

 

[l'Otters]

The thing I don't get is - the 'end' of restrictions was surely not meant to end testing, self-isolation for positive cases and quarantine for contacts? And while that's still ongoing, surely high case numbers, even if they didn't lead to a strain on the health service, are hugely disruptive to people's lives? As has been seen already in the huge numbers of children who continue to miss school, but it's surely shit as well for businesses with staff affected, and for people booking events/holidays and not being able to go?

Eta: Just had a little google around the topic, and found some articles from beginning of May in which the idea of daily lateral flow testing replacing quarantine was pitched, pending a study outcome - seems like the trial that somehow Gove got on...

Short thread on this issue here: There are ~400 schools across England involved in the govt’s [unethical] experiment to see if you can replace self-isolation with lateral flow tests in schools.

 

[NoXion]

Eh? Some households, but I don't think it's anything close to every household. Mine hasn't done a single one.

Indeed. I've had precisely one (1) PCR test since this pandemic started, and nothing else. That was part of the REACT study I participated in.

 

[wtfftw]

Well there we go then. Lateral flow tests are available for everyone. In theory you do twice a week and we catch more infectious cases. In practice this isn't happening unless you have to for work.