Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[Sue]

Suspect there's going to be less mud but shitter music...

 

[bimble]

I don't think vaccination rates would be the only ranking where Vermont comes first and Mississippi comes last - according to this list, if the UK was a state it would rank 28th in terms of the proportion fully vaccinated, between Illinois and Florida.

States ranked by percentage of population fully vaccinated

Vermont has the highest percentage of its population fully vaccinated against COVID-19, according to the CDC's COVID-19 vaccine distribution and administration data tracker.

www.beckershospitalreview.com

Between Illinois and Florida sounds bad, as a place to be, in any context.
The thing these numbers don't show is what's down to availability and what's down to refusal.

 

[elbows]

Posting this both for the info it contains and because of the unfortunate typo.

 

[sheothebudworths]

Are the figures for the U.S. (or anywhere) actually comparable to ours when it's the proportion of 'people', rather than 'adults' (I think?), vaccinated?

 

[elbows]

Are the figures for the U.S. (or anywhere) actually comparable to ours when it's the proportion of 'people', rather than 'adults' (I think?), vaccinated?

Ye that is certainly one of the thingss to watch out for when making comparisons.

Meanwhile in the North West of England:

 

[MrSki]

Well not a surprise that George Eustice has a car crash trying to defend the red listing of India. What a twat.

 

[elbows]

Meanwhile in the North West of England:

Although thanks to one of his other tweets I figured out that I can actually get daily dashboard data that shows age groups for hospitalised cases. Its a real pain to process that data, and its annoying that one of the age groups used is a very broad 18-64, but its something. This wide age group does make me tut slightly at the 'younger adults' language he used. I expect I will post my versions of it from time to time when there is a story to tell beyond that which he tells in this tweet/graphs.




Another limitation with this sort of analysis is that they tend to shy away from 'patients in mechanical ventilation beds' data, but I will cover that myself occasionally too.

 

[elbows]

And I should also point out that this Oliver person is an example of optimists etc with a rather different pandemic stance to me starting to become alarmed by data.

 

[elbows]

I see the travel industry are predictably unhappy about this, but the US would be mad to put the UK on a safer travel list at the moment.

Travel: US eases travel rules for 61 countries - but not UK

The US public health agency has lowered 61 countries to Level 3, including Japan and France.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[elbows]

And now the talk of a 2 week delay is joined by talk of a 4 week delay and Sunaks view.

Covid: Sunak could accept four-week delay to ending restrictions in England

Guardian understands chancellor not fixated on 21 June date for enacting final stage of roadmap

www.theguardian.com

 

[elbows]

That article also contains various bollocks and stuff about Whitty and Vallance being at the more optimistic end of SAGE, in contrast to previous reports about their recent meeting.

In regards whether Bolton type tactics could work elsewhere, I note that the BBCs Nick Triggle is still a somewhat reformed character compared to his failings in the March to October 2020 period. I'm referring mostly to what he said in the second quote below.

The tactics deployed in Bolton over the past month are now being seen as the template for how to curb the Delta variant.

When infection rates took off in early May the area was flooded with testing, while there was a big push on getting people to come forward for vaccination - the numbers receiving their first jab more than trebled in the space of a few weeks.

The result has seen a drop in infection rates - they are down by more than a quarter in the past 10 days - without the need to impose extra restrictions.

With other parts of Greater Manchester seeing big rises, the hope now is that the tactics will work on a wider footprint.

But these tactics have their limitations. At the moment the rise in cases in England is largely being drive by what is happening in the North West - more than 40% of all cases over the past week were in this region.

If other parts of the country start to see more significant rises, the approach becomes more difficult to pull off as resources become more stretched.

Covid: Greater Manchester and Lancashire to get extra help

The measures include military support and in-school testing in areas hardest hit by the Delta variant.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[elbows]

There may be an upside after all....



Meanwhile the fucking Daily Mail resorts to making shit up. Well the 1% thing could be true, temporarily, I havent checked.

 

[elbows]

This BBC reality check article even manages the include the Warwick Uni modelling graph for early May that showed what effect different increases in transmissibility caused by variants would be expected to have on hospitalisations. One of the graphs I posted a number of times in the past and that others have also drawn attention to recently.

Lockdown easing: Four numbers to look for ahead of the 21 June decision

The key numbers that offer clues as to whether "freedom day" will proceed as planned on 21 June.

www.bbc.co.uk

Almost all the narratives in the media and even from the likes of Indie SAGE inolve whether step 4 delays are necessary or not. Almost none are continually pointing out that certain relaxations were reliant on what a government review of remaining social distancing guidance etc came out with, and that the review has already been delayed beyond its original expected date on the end of May. Nor are they talking about whether we shouldnt have gone ahead with step 3, the step that got us into the current predicament, or whether we will have to go backwards with the unlocking. I'm quite prepared to talk about those things, although there probably isnt that much I can say at this stage beyond what I've already been saying for months. I certainly wont be forgetting that even Johnson didnt use his 'irreversible' rhetoric for very long before he felt the need to keep sticking words like 'hopefully' in front of it.

 

[Thora]

I’m in a well known UK holiday resort at the moment and there seems to be a bit of an outbreak going on Lots of people who stayed last week and over the weekend are reporting on the Facebook page that they either tested positive or have been told to isolate by the app. Heard nothing from the resort management itself though...

 

[Steel Icarus]

Fucking Freedom Day, honestly
Love how the anti-any-restrictions-to-their-selfish-fucking-lives crowd wave the low numbers due to resistrictions around as "evidence" everything should open immediately

 

[SpookyFrank]

Fucking Freedom Day, honestly
Love how the anti-any-restrictions-to-their-selfish-fucking-lives crowd wave the low numbers due to resistrictions around as "evidence" everything should open immediately

There's a lot of this where I work. Most people are vaccinated now, we should just go for it. Although of course the Venn diagram of people who express this view and people who have already had their vaccine is a circle. Just add it to the ever-growing pile of entirely legitimate grievances the young are going to have against everyone else before this is over.

And of course it's young people who have to work most of the front of house jobs in all the pubs and restaurants and hotels and venues that all the people who don't have to work there are insisting reopen with no restrictions.

 

[Steel Icarus]

Has to be said COVID is testing my ability to adhere to the self- and wife- ban from arguing with the general public on local Fb groups

 

[LeytonCatLady]

I'm just sick of the conspiracy theories in general. I've got four housemates, three of whom buy into a lot of the propaganda. These are people I like and consider friends, and we usually manage to agree to disagree. But with conspiracy nuts in general, I resent their patronising air of authority and "you poor little fool" attitude.

 

[elbows]

More analysis from the 'reformed Nick Triggle' department. The extent to which we can use him as a proxy indicator of 'reformed government pandemic thinking' is uncertain, but I expect there is some degree of link.

It was always expected cases would rise at this stage – allowing indoor mixing is the move that allows the virus to spread most easily.

But what is concerning government scientists is how quickly cases are going up – and how that has begun to translate into hospital admissions.

The increase in hospital admissions is only really apparent in the north-west so far – more than a third of admissions in England have been in that region over the past week.

The hope was the progress of the vaccination programme would lead to a slower increase in infections and hospital admissions would be flatter. But the Delta variant appears to have complicated matters - and so the alarm bells are beginning to ring.

But it is still early days. There is hope this rise could tail off given the immunity that has built up in the population and what has been seen in the north-west does not translate to other parts of the country.

As painful as it is, the message from scientists is that a delay in fully opening up allows more time to gather data and understand what is happening and to vaccinate more.

A slowing of the progress on the roadmap rather than the ending of it.

Thats from the 9:34 entry of the BBC live updates page, but may also end up embedded in some other article. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-57409973/page/2

 

[glitch hiker]

 

[elbows]

Leaving aside R for a moment, here we have yet another sign that the U number, a number I made up which indicates how quickly people with unsustainable positions are forced to u-turn, is very high with the Delta variant.

Tim 'only a ripple' Spectors latest video features radically different mood music compared to previous videos which I was highly critical of.

Even if you dont watch this one, I feel the title they have gone for here illustrates my point. "Hyper-infectious Delta Variant sweeps partially vaccinated into latest COVID wave"

 

[Flavour]

What even are the current restrictions in the UK?

 

[SpookyFrank]

What even are the current restrictions in the UK?

Been at least a year since I bothered to check. I know what the official national restrictions are in the school I work in, but they're somehow very different in the next school over.

 

[Teaboy]

More analysis from the 'reformed Nick Triggle' department. The extent to which we can use him as a proxy indicator of 'reformed government pandemic thinking' is uncertain, but I expect there is some degree of link.





Thats from the 9:34 entry of the BBC live updates page, but may also end up embedded in some other article. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-57409973/page/2

The mood music has definitely changed the press in the last few days. The stuff about Sunak in the Guardian today alongside the the mail getting more hysterical and desperate. Things are moving now.

 

[Sue]

There's a lot of this where I work. Most people are vaccinated now, we should just go for it. Although of course the Venn diagram of people who express this view and people who have already had their vaccine is a circle. Just add it to the ever-growing pile of entirely legitimate grievances the young are going to have against everyone else before this is over.

And of course it's young people who have to work most of the front of house jobs in all the pubs and restaurants and hotels and venues that all the people who don't have to work there are insisting reopen with no restrictions.

The majority of people at my work are in their 20s so haven't been vaccinated yet. The company's still pushing for everyone to be back in the office on 21/06. Given everyone's been working from home throughout lockdown, feels like a completely stupid thing to be doing.

 

[Teaboy]

The majority of people at my work are in their 20s so haven't been vaccinated yet. The company's still pushing for everyone to be back in the office on 21/06. Given everyone's been working from home throughout lockdown, feels like a completely stupid thing to be doing.

Yes it does because regardless of what decisions are made the work from home if you can instruction is pretty much nailed on to remain.

 

[elbows]

The majority of people at my work are in their 20s so haven't been vaccinated yet. The company's still pushing for everyone to be back in the office on 21/06. Given everyone's been working from home throughout lockdown, feels like a completely stupid thing to be doing.

They will probably have to change their tune. If they dont then its somewhat likely the government will have underlined the 'carry on working from home if you can' message by then.

In the meantime if you have a need to confront them with specifics, it might be worth pointing out that advice about whether people should still work from home was one of the things the government review into social distancing etc was supposed to look into. And the fact that review has been delayed (was due at end of May) speaks for itself.

 

[elbows]

The mood music has definitely changed the press in the last few days. The stuff about Sunak in the Guardian today alongside the the mail getting more hysterical and desperate. Things are moving now.

Yeah although I am still cautious about what some of the noises in the press these days really indicate. And it goes without saying by now that I dont trust the government to do the right thing in this pandemic.

There is also this, although it should be noted that he apparently said it on Monday and things can change quickly:

Michael Gove has told colleagues that if he were a “betting man” he would “bet on a relaxation” of England’s Covid rules on June 21.

Michael Gove Would 'Bet' On June 21 Relaxation Of Covid Rules

Exclusive: Senior minister told colleagues on Monday that he believes more restrictions will be lifted on the planned date.

www.huffingtonpost.co.uk

 

[Teaboy]

Yeah although I am still cautious about what some of the noises in the press these days really indicate. And it goes without saying by now that I dont trust the government to do the right thing in this pandemic.

There is also this, although it should be noted that he apparently said it on Monday and things can change quickly:

Michael Gove Would 'Bet' On June 21 Relaxation Of Covid Rules

Exclusive: Senior minister told colleagues on Monday that he believes more restrictions will be lifted on the planned date.

www.huffingtonpost.co.uk

Throughout the pandemic I've never been convinced that Gove has been particularly close to any of the decision making process. He seems more than happy to do press interviews but I get the impression he's just winging it.

This being said because Johnson is Johnson and being the populist he is it wouldn't surprise me if there is some tinkering around the edges with some of the less important stuff like more people at live external sport, that sort of thing. That way he can still give it the big one about the unlocking process still proceeding.

 

[cupid_stunt]

A couple of weeks ago, we first went back over 3,000 cases a day, yesterday it tipped over 6,000, today it's gone over 7,500 new cases, 7-day average up 66%.