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Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

We only test if we’re doing something (e.g. seeing family/friends or going for a meal), 3 days before and after.

I get tested every week in hospital also.
 
This is really not the week I want to see daily UK vaccines given stats doing what they've been doing in recent days either.

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Bright sunshine and warm weather is likely not the best partner for a mass vaccination program, particularly when you're now into younger age cohorts who have been at much lower risk of getting ill from covid, well up until now anyway. I suspect many an appointment has been missed because there is something more fun going on with friends in the sunshine.

I'm a little surprised they've not brought the over 40's second jabs forward yet, there was some suggestion they may. Most of this age cohort (like me) will have had AZ and as I understand it the country's supply of that is much greater than pz and Moderna and they're not giving it out for first jabs now. Lets use it.
 
Bright sunshine and warm weather is likely not the best partner for a mass vaccination program, particularly when you're now into younger age cohorts who have been at much lower risk of getting ill from covid, well up until now anyway. I suspect many an appointment has been missed because there is something more fun going on with friends in the sunshine.

I'm a little surprised they've not brought the over 40's second jabs forward yet, there was some suggestion they may. Most of this age cohort (like me) will have had AZ and as I understand it the country's supply of that is much greater than pz and Moderna and they're not giving it out for first jabs now. Lets use it.

From what I can gather there's been massive and enthusiastic take up of vaccine bookings amongst younger people. I don't see any reason to think many will miss those appointment just because it's sunny.

On the second bit I'm 42 and I moved mine up several weeks the other day so you can do it.
 
From what I can gather there's been massive and enthusiastic take up of vaccine bookings amongst younger people. I don't see any reason to think many will miss those appointment just because it's sunny.

Yeah, its a guess and its based upon one incident but when I had my 1st jab there was over 50 other people at the centre queing and waiting their turn. When my partner went a few weeks later to the same centre the weather had changed to the sunshine we have now and there were less than 5 people there for their jab. Obviously a tiny snapshot like that doesn't mean much but I can think back to how me and my mates would have been at that age plus add in the terrible May weather and terrible year in general.

On the second bit I'm 42 and I moved mine up several weeks the other day so you can do it.

Oh, seems like the sort of thing the government could have made a bigger deal of.
 
Yeah, its a guess and its based upon one incident but when I had my 1st jab there was over 50 other people at the centre queing and waiting their turn. When my partner went a few weeks later to the same centre the weather had changed to the sunshine we have now and there were less than 5 people there for their jab.

I volunteer at my local vax centre. On any given day, throughout my time there (I started in December) there are ebbs and flows - at one moment there might be a massive queue, an hour later it might be almost empty.
 
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I'm not following Hancocks testimony properly and I'm hoping not to post too much today.

But I'll point out this bit from a BBC artile because of my interest in hosptai-acquired COVID and authorities concerns about it which they mostly downplayed publicly at the time.

Adding that ministers had always "followed the clinical advice," he said that early on in the pandemic there were worries that testing asymptomatic people could provide "false assurance" due to incorrect negative results.

He also added clinicians were worried about people picking up Covid in hospitals during the 4-day turnaround period to receive a laboratory test result.

From Matt Hancock: I knew Dominic Cummings wanted PM to sack me
 
Still can’t do this - Pfizer, aged 39, Devon. I keep trying every few days but can’t move it from 11 weeks after jab 1.

Your age is the key factor here. Most of the us 40+ lot will have had az which they have a good stock of and also the most robust supply chain.

As I understand it the there isn't really a stock of pz and Moderna and what is received each week is used each week. In this case the 1st jabs will remain the priority for the time being or unless supplies increase and they feel confident they can bring 2nd jabs forward without creating shortages for 1st jabbers.
 
Your age is the key factor here. Most of the us 40+ lot will have had az which they have a good stock of and also the most robust supply chain.

As I understand it the there isn't really a stock of pz and Moderna and what is received each week is used each week. In this case the 1st jabs will remain the priority for the time being or unless supplies increase and they feel confident they can bring 2nd jabs forward without creating shortages for 1st jabbers.

Yeah mine was AZ so that would fit.
 
I found Tim Spectors video today very interesting. Saying London’s R value is at 1.8 so look out for that by next week.
The other notable thing he said, from the beginning of May the symptoms have changed.

It’s now very like a cold and they are starting to think this is driving infection, people are going about their business thinking they have a moderate cold. Headache, sore throat and runny nose. Loss of taste is rarely reported, coughing is number 5 in the list.
If you aren’t vaccinated or have only had one dose and you get a cold, which is unusual at this time of year, get tested.

The video is here:
 
Although I'm not watching the Hancock appearance before the committee I see that Labour MP Graham Stringer has again demonstrated what a piece of shit he is in this pandemic.

In previous committee meetings it became clear he was skeptical about the need for lockdowns, especially when the second wave was growing in his part of the country. He was the only Labour MP to vote against stronger restrictions in the North West last October. There are probably other examples I have missed. His previous performance in the committee I mentioned caused someone here on the forum to wonder at the time whether he was drunk.

Anyway today he decided to focus on the fact that some people on SAGEs behavioural group, SPI-B, were hand-wringing in quotes they gave to some book, about their use of fear to encourage public compliance when lockdowns etc were first kicking in here. The sort of thing the Telegraph like to quack on about due to their own stance on lockdown. Now this is an interesting subject that is worthy of discussion, because many people here will be well used to inappropriate use of fear by government & media partners to deal with a host of issues and behaviours. But of course I believe that such things were rather necessary at times in this pandemic, since behaviour is key and when people dont get it, lots of extra deaths occur. This will be an issue again now as we face the threats to public health that this latest wave offer. All the same I do study propaganda in as many forms as I can manage, and it was not lost on me how this stuff was done via the media in not very subtle ways at key moments via the media - some of the messageing was turned on and off rather abruptly. But given the actual realities, in this pandemic I broadly supported such messaging.

Anyway I'm hardly surprised that Stringer is shit in this pandemic. He was chair of Manchester Airport plc briefly in the 1990s. He is heavily linked to climate change denialism. In 2009 he described dyslexia as a cruel hoax. And this is just the most obvious stuff that can be discovered via a brief look at his wikipedia entry.

Fuck you Graham Stringer, you are on my pandemic wall of shame.

He is such a shithead that I've had to side with Hancock on this one!

Stringer points out that members of the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Behaviours (SPI-B) have apologised and expressed regret for giving extreme advice.

"Do you accept any responsibility for that advice?" he asks Hancock.

The health secretary responds that he thinks everyone in a position of authority in the "health family" was acting in what they thought was best interpretation of the information they had in trying to manage a pandemic.

Stringer adds that SPI-B admitted exaggerating and co-operated in creating a climate of fear.

"I don't think there was an overemphasis on the negative - there were thousands of people dying and we needed to stop that," responds Hancock.

(thats from 12:37 BBC live updates page entry https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-57424534 )
 
Well there we go then. Lateral flow tests are available for everyone. In theory you do twice a week and we catch more infectious cases. In practice this isn't happening unless you have to for work.
The take-up rate for staff to have lateral flow tests at work (supermarket) has plummeted and I imagine it will be wound up before long. I aim for twice a week as I look after a grandson who goes to day nursery, and shuttles between his separated working parents, but I also got a pack of tests from the local chemist so if there’s nobody available to test me during my shift, I can do one at home instead.
I wonder how many home tests that have been handed out at doorsteps are being done accurately though.
 
I know they've all supposedly been tested. But I'm currently watching 18,000 people getting absolutely smashed at the cricket in the west midlands. Is this wise?
Many unwise things are happening that are a poor match for the new variant and the current stage of things.

I've just begun to look at various sources of mobility data. Only done Apples so far, and oh dear! Perhaps others who are interested could look into other sources such as Google and report back at some point in the coming days? I got annoyed with Googles reports when I tried to look myself, because most fo the graphs I found didnt go back many months, so there was a lack of broader pandemic context.

Screenshot 2021-06-09 at 23.48.jpg

From COVID‑19 - Mobility Trends Reports - Apple where people can also drill down further in terms of locations if desired.
 
There's some graph/maps here
 
I know they've all supposedly been tested. But I'm currently watching 18,000 people getting absolutely smashed at the cricket in the west midlands. Is this wise?

This is just hyperbole though isn't it?

There are questions enough about the wisdom of continuing trials with large sporting and other events without accusing everyone being there of being "absolutely smashed" which of course makes them irresponsible and gives us someone to blame. Like I've said before, we've had over a year of street protest after street protest which many here supported. Even being described as essential work. Some people try and enjoy themselves within the rules and its back to this stuff again.

A time for cool heads.

ETA: I've said this before but when the virus situation is less scary I'm going to start a thread on some of the demonization I've seen in the last year. I think its very interesting.
 
Edinburgh test positivity rate up to 5.6% today - which I think is the second highest in Scotland after Dundee :(
I know I sometimes point out the better aspects of the Scottish governments pandemic handling and communication, but they still arent that impressive :(

I cant say the news some days ago about the trams in Edinburgh returning to normal service for the first time in the pandemic was good news.

 
I'm finding the situation in Bolton interesting. Covid: Things are looking up in Bolton, eye of the variant storm

Obviously the situation there is still very precarious and its hard to see how that scale of operation could be delivered in more than a handful of areas at any one time. The thing that strikes me is though the initial signs are that they have managed to stamp on the virus as it was getting out of control.

Thinking back to all the local lockdowns and Johnson going on about whack a mole this is the only time I can think of which appears to have had any success.

I know logistically large walk-in vaccination centres are difficult to say the least. I just think there is something in it to mop up all those who for whatever reason have missed the standard booking process.
 
I wont have much to say about Bolton for ages, because I need to give it much longer to see if their gains hold.

Its not even impossible to think that the patterns seen there so far could be replicated elsewhere even if the capacity to manage to situation proactively is not available everywhere else that will need it. However this is just one possibility, on the much happier side of possible wave prospects. It would be a demonstration that vaccines are able to carry the weight asked of them at this time. I dont rule it out, but its not something I would confidently claim.

Certainly its not a surprise that boots on the ground can make a real difference when it comes to testing etc.
 
For example I will be keeping a close age on the age-group heatmap for Bolton. I can see why the media make claims about the age groups most involved in this wave so far, but this is one area where it could be easy to reach the wrong conclusions by making them too early. I have to force myself to wait longer to see if cases still trickle up the ages. Second chart down on this page:


edit to add that I've poined out before that Blackburn with Darwens heat chart is worse than Boltons in that respect. https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?areaType=ltla&areaName=Blackburn with Darwen
 
Plus it may be possible that we've caught certain stages of early outbreaks, ie in school aged people, earlier than in the previous wave due to the current testing regime. This might end up being part of good news in regards how this wave pans out, but it could also lead into a false sense of what stage we are at and what sort of stages may be yet to come.
 
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