Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[Teaboy]

Ah, a convenient 'out' for Johnson. Sorry folks, can't be helped - my hands are tied etc etc.

 

[elbows]

Limited potential for that, since its far from the only factor. I'm sure if will be part of their narrative though, unless they dont want to admit that there are supply reductions, an area where they havent traditionally been very transparent.

 

[elbows]

 

[elbows]

The source said that in the first week of June this year, Public Health England (PHE) and the Department for Education (DfE) sent a proposal to the DHSC regarding the release of information on COVID-19 transmission in schools, including a proposal to publish relevant data. DHSC officials were requested to review and advise.

According to the official, this resulted in a decision to limit the release of information. “The Department of Health basically responded by saying: let’s release some information, but keep it vague and release it alongside everything else to make the situation look not as bad as it is.” Asked about Hancock’s role in this decision, the source said: “That decision came from him personally.”

Hancock’s attempt to dominate COVID-19 information flows in Whitehall has been going on since February 2021, the official added – around the same time the vaccine rollout picked up pace – forcing England’s Chief Medical Officer Chris Whitty to “start going over him” to get things done.

Matt Hancock ‘Suppressing’ COVID Data from Government Departments, Says Whistleblower

The Health and Social Care Secretary has been limiting information distributed to the public and inside Whitehall, an insider alleges

bylinetimes.com

 

[elbows]

That piece also makes mention of this piece from a day earlier:

Health Department Whistleblower: Political Pressure ‘Watered-Down’ Public Health England Care Home Guidance Over COVID Testing

Nafeez Ahmed reports on an insider’s account of how the Department of Health and Social Care leaned on Public Health officials to drop Coronavirus testing of people transferred from hospitals into care homes

bylinetimes.com

“Public Health England’s original advice was that people shouldn’t be released from homes and hospitals without being tested to ensure they are not carrying the disease,” they said.

That initial advice was signed-off by two PHE officials – Dr Eamonn O’Moore, director for health and justice; and Dr Julia Verne, head of clinical epidemiology – and was the case up to the period “just before the lockdown”, the source revealed.

 

[two sheds]

I hear from a neighbour that a load of journalists in a Falmouth hotel are having to isolate because of coronavirus detected there. I said I hope they include Mail journalists who are all gung ho about getting out of lockdown. He said "yes they brought it with them "

Can't see anything in UK-wide media about this yet but apparently St Ives rather than Falmouth

Hotel putting up G7 security staff closes after Covid outbreak

A hotel in Cornwall reportedly hosting media and security staff for the G7 has closed following a coronavirus outbreak.

www.falmouthpacket.co.uk

 

[cupid_stunt]

Very slightly lower number of new cases reported today, at 7,393.

However, hospital admissions for the 7 days up to 6th of June are now showing as being up by +7.1%, compared to the pervious 7-days.

Total patients in hospital are now back over 1,000 again.

New cases 8,125, up +58.1%.

Hospital admissions, up to 7th June, now up +14.4%

Deaths +10.9%

That's 'Freedom Day' fucked, right there.

 

[elbows]

I havent had a chance to rant about the use of lateral flow tests for ages but here we are:

Rapid Covid tests used in mass UK programme get scathing US report

Innova tests’ performance not proven and they should be returned to manufacturer or thrown in bin, says FDA

www.theguardian.com

The US Food and Drug Agency (FDA) has raised significant concerns about the rapid Covid test on which the UK government has based its multibillion-pound mass testing programme.

In a scathing review, the US health agency suggested the performance of the test had not been established, presenting a risk to health, and that the tests should be thrown in the bin or returned to the California-based manufacturer Innova.

In early April, the UK government announced plans for the use of universal Covid-19 tests as a means to ease England out of lockdown. By the end of the month, the MHRA expressed concerns that the people who test negative would be given false reassurance by their result and would let down their guard if they believe they are Covid-free – suggesting the government’s universal testing plan was “a stretch” of the authorised use of rapid tests.

The MHRA’s special authorisation of the Innova test – which is repackaged and deployed by the NHS – is due for another review by 22 June.

“It is important to realise that the UK and EU process for assuring the safety of most medical tests is mainly based on trust – manufacturers’ provide notification that they abide by the required legislation – there is no scrutiny of the evidence,” said Jon Deeks, a professor of biostatistics at the University of Birmingham.

“It is time that this is changed to ensure that our regulator has the legal ability and independence to act in the right ways to protect the health of the public. Bad tests do harm.”

 

[cupid_stunt]

I havent had a chance to rant about the use of lateral flow tests for ages but here we are:

Rapid Covid tests used in mass UK programme get scathing US report

Innova tests’ performance not proven and they should be returned to manufacturer or thrown in bin, says FDA

www.theguardian.com

There's so many conflicting reports on lateral flow tests, but the University of Oxford and Public Health England carried out a large-scale study, and concluded they were good enough for their purpose, and can detect up to 91% of those infected with the virus.

But while the authors of the Oxford research acknowledged that the role of lateral flow tests has been controversial, they concluded that the tests can detect most people ‘who would otherwise go on to infect someone else’. This is because the same people who are detected best by lateral flow kits – those with high viral loads – are also the most infectious, the study found.

‘This is the first time this has been confirmed in a large-scale study and explains part of why some people pass Covid-19 on and others do not. Overall, only six in 100 contacts of infected cases went on to get infected themselves,’ the researchers said.

Tim Peto, professor of medicine at the University of Oxford and senior author on the study, added: ‘We know that lateral flow tests are not perfect, but that doesn’t stop them being a game-changer for helping to detect large numbers of infectious cases sufficiently rapidly to prevent further onward spread.’

https://nixdigital.surf/news/covid-19/lateral-flow-tests-pick-up-90-of-covid-cases-study-finds/?__cpo=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cudGhlcGhhcm1hY2lzdC5jby51aw

 

[Elpenor]

I hear from a neighbour that a load of journalists in a Falmouth hotel are having to isolate because of coronavirus detected there. I said I hope they include Mail journalists who are all gung ho about getting out of lockdown. He said "yes they brought it with them "

Correction: St Ives hotel

Can't see anything in UK-wide media about this yet but apparently St Ives rather than Falmouth

Hotel putting up G7 security staff closes after Covid outbreak

A hotel in Cornwall reportedly hosting media and security staff for the G7 has closed following a coronavirus outbreak.

www.falmouthpacket.co.uk

Covid on the Cop Gin Palace too

News article

The latest news and appeals from Devon and Cornwall Police

www.devon-cornwall.police.uk

 

[elbows]

There's so many conflicting reports on lateral flow tests, but the University of Oxford and Public Health England carried out a large-scale study, and concluded they were good enough for their purpose, and can detect up to 91% of those infected with the virus.

https://nixdigital.surf/news/covid-19/lateral-flow-tests-pick-up-90-of-covid-cases-study-finds/?__cpo=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cudGhlcGhhcm1hY2lzdC5jby51aw

It depends what authorities use them for as to whether I consider 91% to be in any way good enough.

Its better than nothing for some settings, unless authorities stretch the use too far, which I think the UK government have been in real danger of doing this year.

 

[cupid_stunt]

It depends what authorities use them for as to whether I consider 91% to be in any way good enough.

Its better than nothing for some settings, unless authorities stretch the use too far, which I think the UK government have been in real danger of doing this year.

But, lateral flow tests are not a replacement for PCR tests, that are only available under very specific circumstances, they are in addition to PCR testing.

Have the authorities actually stretched the use too far?

 

[elbows]

But, lateral flow tests are not a replacement for PCR tests, that are only available under very specific circumstances, they are in addition to PCR testing.

Have the authorities actually stretched the use too far?

There is quite a long history of the government seeking to use them inappropriately, I'm not going to go through all the examples again now, especially since we discussed plenty of them at the time. Partly because I am knackered covering all the other news of recent weeks but I promise to return to this subject next time a good example comes up. Or if our regulator says anything interesting in the June 22nd review.

 

[steveo87]

Sir Van Morrison: Ian Paisley defends joining anti-Swann chant

Ian Paisley and the singer chanted about the NI health minister after cancellation of Belfast gigs.

www.bbc.co.uk

Should've quit after Brown Eyed Girl...

 

[elbows]

 

[sojourner]

The top 25 hotspots of where the Delta variant is rising rapidly, based on data from the Zoe app.

View attachment 272815

Map reveals 25 areas in UK where cases of Indian variant are rising fastest

Stirling in Scotland now has the highest prevalence of the variant and cases are still going up.

metro.co.uk

Ace. My fkn hometown is no 15.

 

[elbows]

Given how dominant Delta is now I think I'll mostly now look at overall case levels in different places rather than zoom in on more limited Delta data.

 

[BillRiver]

Those percentages are much better than I'd have guessed/predicted, actually. I find that quite reassuring. Seems like, if these figures are accurate, a lot of people are still taking sensible precautions.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Sky News just reporting hospital admissions in the NW are up 66%.

 

[elbows]

Sky News just reporting hospital admissions in the NW are up 66%.

Here are my regional hospital admissions/diasnoses charts. First one uses raw daily numbers and the second one is smoothed by using 7 day averages. London is slowly creeping up too.

The North West is clearly up, although percentages where the underlying numbers are starting from a low base arent something I draw attention to that much.

Also have to keep in mind the stuff discussed in the article about the government asking the NHS to start giving them seperate figures for people hospitalised because of Covid-19 symptoms, as oppsoed to those going in for other reasons that test positive. The latter are bound to rise when number of cases in the community rises.

 

[elbows]

On a related note, see this article about Scotland and the stuff said about number of children hospitalised with Covid a while back:

Watchdog says Humza Yousaf child Covid claim 'inaccurate'

Scotland's health secretary claimed that 10 children had been hospitalised "because of Covid".

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[Supine]

FT reporting a one month delay to lockdown easing

 

[Sue]

So just been looking at the numbers where I am. Total cases up 183% in the last week at borough level, up 400% in my ward (the latter admittedly from a low base). Feels locally like people think it's all over but the numbers look to be telling a different story.

 

[Elpenor]

FT reporting a one month delay to lockdown easing

July 19th I understand, with a break clause of July 5th if hospitalisation remain low.

 

[elbows]

FT reporting a one month delay to lockdown easing

I suppose they should really say England rather than the UK.

The authorities will be hoping that cases stay within certain limits over that month, and that they can reach English school holiays without having to impose further restrictions.

 

[elbows]

July 19th I understand, with a break clause of July 5th if hospitalisation remain low.

I wonder what counts as low in their book.

I also wonder if they'll start changing the published figures so that they only count the 'in hospital because of Covid symptoms' as opposed to the broader stats we've had in the pandemic so far which include everyone else who has Covid while in hospital for other reasons.

 

[Elpenor]

So is this a pause to the pouring of petrol onto the fire or is it applying a fire extinguisher?

 

[cupid_stunt]

So just been looking at the numbers where I am. Total cases up 183% in the last week at borough level, up 400% in my ward (the latter admittedly from a low base). Feels locally like people think it's all over but the numbers look to be telling a different story.

Some big percentage increases can show up, when case numbers are low, I freaked for a moment, a couple of weeks ago, when I saw Worthing borough had gone up 2000% in a week.

But that was from 1 to 21 cases per 100k, it's levelled off at 28 now.

 

[elbows]

So is this a pause to the pouring of petrol onto the fire or is it applying a fire extinguisher?

I cant really call it an extinguisher when all the rises we've got so far are a result of changes that already happened. The media dont want to touch the subject of having to go backwards at the moment. Nor indie SAGE last time I checked. I'm one of the only people who keep raising that nightmare prospect.

 

[elbows]

Not that I could call it inevitable, which I would if we werent in the vaccination era. I still consider it possible enough thats its worth mentioning.

As far as the government and mainstream are concerned, the closest we currently come to extinguishers is to repeat the sort of things done in Bolton - more testing and boots on the ground etc.