Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[Spandex]

The unlocking in May is basically the same as the unlocking last November. The permitted socialising in November and December saw the alpha variant rapidly being devastating, so I don’t know why anybody would be surprised that the same permitted socialising is now also seeing the delta variant do the same. It’s clearly not protective enough to allow the things currently allowed.

Last November was the mini-lockdown, which ended on 2nd Dec.

It was generally effective against the original strain, after weeks of fucking about with local restrictions, while barely containing the Kent strain, which hadn't spread far before the lockdown started. As soon as restrictions were eased the Kent variant spread across the country like wildfire.

I think with the easing of restrictions this May the government was okay with the virus starting to spread again. When he announced it Johnson said that deaths would inevitably rise again. He/they were hoping that the vaccine programme was far enough along that hospitals wouldn't be overwhelmed. The Indian variant has changed that though, spreading even faster and seeming to hit younger, unvaccinated, people harder. But having made a big point that the easing of restrictions are irreversable he's only looking at not ending the restrictions on social mixing on 21 June rather than considering reintroducing those that ended in May. That has the potential to go very wrong, but there will probably be a debate about the acceptable level of hospitalisation and death before any restrictions are reimposed. I suspect the government will have a higher tolerance for people dying than most of us do.

 

[baldrick]

Lots of no shows at the vaccination centre today. Probably a combination of the age group attending not feeling hugely at risk, and the good weather

A shame. I had my second one yesterday. Funny how on the one hand you have no-shows and on the other there is this:

Queues at Crucible vaccine pop-up

 

[rubbershoes]

A shame. I had my second one yesterday. Funny how on the one hand you have no-shows and on the other there is this:

Queues at Crucible vaccine pop-up

Indeed. The other Somerset centre was operating a no appointment and just turn up system and was absolutely rammed.

 

[miss direct]

I am hoping for a walk in centre for second jabs. There was one here in Sheffield aimed at the black community, hopefully there will be more. Otherwise my second one isn't due till August.

Anecdotal, but I went out last night and was really disgusted that the group of guys next to us at a pub kept spitting in our direction and sneezing multiple times, again, in our direction. Felt too threatened by a big group of men to say anything

 

[elbows]

Last November was the mini-lockdown, which ended on 2nd Dec.

It was generally effective against the original strain, after weeks of fucking about with local restrictions, while barely containing the Kent strain, which hadn't spread far before the lockdown started. As soon as restrictions were eased the Kent variant spread across the country like wildfire.

I think with the easing of restrictions this May the government was okay with the virus starting to spread again. When he announced it Johnson said that deaths would inevitably rise again. He/they were hoping that the vaccine programme was far enough along that hospitals wouldn't be overwhelmed. The Indian variant has changed that though, spreading even faster and seeming to hit younger, unvaccinated, people harder. But having made a big point that the easing of restrictions are irreversable he's only looking at not ending the restrictions on social mixing on 21 June rather than considering reintroducing those that ended in May. That has the potential to go very wrong, but there will probably be a debate about the acceptable level of hospitalisation and death before any restrictions are reimposed. I suspect the government will have a higher tolerance for people dying than most of us do.

There is another important consideration when thinking about the November 2020 lockdown - schools were kept open for all, not just for key workers children.

As for what forces the government to act, yes there are reasons I've tended to say its more about level of hospitalisation than about the level of death. And this time there are ways they can fiddle with the equations in regards hospitalisations. We know that they've recently started collecting data about how many people are being hospitalised because of the severity of their Covid symptoms, separately from how many people go into hospital for other reasons but then test positive either because they were infected in the community before admission, or infected whilst in hospital. There are sensible ways they can use that data, but it will also be used either by government or by anti0lockdown types to make a bunch of tedious and largely inappropriate points. In the other direction, if the government feel the need for a new justification for taking tougher action, they can point to the NHS backlog and how the level of Covid infections threatens the ability of the NHS to deal with that backlog, making the backlog larger not smaller. Either way and somewhat regardless of the wider debate about these details, there will still be the modelling which gives the government a sense of whether the situation threatens to overwhelm hospitals etc.

 

[l'Otters]

What is it going to take for some actual investment in infrastructure to keep schools open for all kids? Proper ventilation, extra venues, that sort of thing. Fucking enrages me if I actually think about it much.

 

[rubbershoes]

I am hoping for a walk in centre for second jabs. There was one here in Sheffield aimed at the black community, hopefully there will be more. Otherwise my second one isn't due till August.

Anecdotal, but I went out last night and was really disgusted that the group of guys next to us at a pub kept spitting in our direction and sneezing multiple times, again, in our direction. Felt too threatened by a big group of men to say anything

FFS

 

[l'Otters]

They want the schools open so the parents can go to work. No investment in childcare. But making schools safer, by spending money on it? Not a fucking chance. It’s disgusting on so many levels.

 

[elbows]

What is it going to take for some actual investment in infrastructure to keep schools open for all kids? Proper ventilation, extra venues, that sort of thing. Fucking enrages me if I actually think about it much.

On top of all the reasons why this sort of thing is not what we expect from the establishment in this country, there is another problem. As well as preventing transmission in schools, the other reason authorities have to resort to shutting schools at times during a bad pandemic is that this has an effect on adult contact mixing patterns, very much including stopping a chunk of people from going to work.

 

[l'Otters]

Yes but if they put this type investment in the effects of keeping schools open would be massively reduced.

 

[elbows]

Yes but if they put this type investment in the effects of keeping schools open would be massively reduced.

It questionable as to exactly how much could be achieved, especially with more and more transmissible variants. They should still try. The removing of mask requirements was absolute idiocy.

But my point was not to be defeatist about that side of things, but rather to point out that its not just about the infection risk within the school. Its part of a broader emergency handbrake because it forces adults behaviour to change in various ways, shattering the sense of normality and attempts to carry on as normal.

 

[LDC]

Experiencing surreal feelings due to an article in the Telegraph that says the sort of things I say, and features the sorts of graphs I would use.

We face a third wave of Covid-19 and the die may already have been cast

The raw data does not look good – cases of the delta variant have been growing exponentially since the last unlocking in May

www.telegraph.co.uk

Also contains a link to a new modelling paper which I havent had time to look at yet, I will take a look on Sunday afternoon:

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.06.07.21258476v1.full.pdf

Elsewhere in the Telegraph there is far more typical shit, such as an article which ping-pongs back and forwards between comments somewhat resembling reality, and deranged anti-lockdown people such as MP Marcus Fysh who was happy to boast about how he would start breaking the rules if they still exist come June 21st. He has an especially hideous record in this pandemic and rarely misses an opportunity to push on every front available, including a few weeks ago when he said that schools should curtail their use of hand sanitiser due to its corrosive effects on skin. If I wanted to seek out obvious threats to public health in this pandemic, he would be high on my list of really obvious and absurd examples.

In that article there's a mention of The Lancet study that shows the longer spaced out intervals between 1st to 2nd Pfizer jabs causes immunity to fall faster, especially in the old.

 

[elbows]

In that article there's a mention of The Lancet study that shows the longer spaced out intervals between 1st to 2nd Pfizer jabs causes immunity to fall faster, especially in the old.

Yes when I read that bit I quickly re-read the Lancet study but the detail that actually pointed in that direction didnt leap out at me so I didnt seize on it last night. Can you or others take a look at the study and see if you can spot the bit that makes that point? I might just have been way too tired when I read it, and I also didnt have time to search for other press etc mentions of this aspect. Also it might be that they are talking about immunity waning during the period between the two doses, rather than after the second dose?

The other thing I think people need to keep in mind in terms of their own behaviour and sense of risk at the moment is that authorities currently dont have enough data to make a claim about how much protection two doses of the AZ vaccine offers against Delta.

 

[prunus]

Yes when I read that bit I quickly re-read the Lancet study but the detail that actually pointed in that direction didnt leap out at me so I didnt seize on it last night. Can you or others take a look at the study and see if you can spot the bit that makes that point? I might just have been way too tired when I read it, and I also didnt have time to search for other press etc mentions of this aspect. Also it might be that they are talking about immunity waning during the period between the two doses, rather than after the second dose?

The other thing I think people need to keep in mind in terms of their own behaviour and sense of risk at the moment is that authorities currently dont have enough data to make a claim about how much protection two doses of the AZ vaccine offers against Delta.

I can’t see that the Lancet study linked in the telegraph article does say what they claim - this one: DEFINE_ME

it does say that the longer gap between first and second doses leaves people in a significantly less protected state (single dose) for longer than they would be if the second dose was sooner, perhaps the telegraph is misreading that? Or perhaps they meant to link a different study? Or perhaps I have failed to see where the linked paper says anything about increased immunity drop off with longer intervals.

 

[elbows]

I can’t see that the Lancet study linked in the telegraph article does say what they claim - this one: DEFINE_ME

it does say that the longer gap between first and second doses leaves people in a significantly less protected state (single dose) for longer than they would be if the second dose was sooner, perhaps the telegraph is misreading that? Or perhaps they meant to link a different study? Or perhaps I have failed to see where the linked paper says anything about increased immunity drop off with longer intervals.

Thanks, that matches the thoughts I had last night. I will look into it more when I get a chance, but I dont know when that will be.

 

[cupid_stunt]

I can’t see that the Lancet study linked in the telegraph article does say what they claim - this one: DEFINE_ME

it does say that the longer gap between first and second doses leaves people in a significantly less protected state (single dose) for longer than they would be if the second dose was sooner, perhaps the telegraph is misreading that? Or perhaps they meant to link a different study? Or perhaps I have failed to see where the linked paper says anything about increased immunity drop off with longer intervals.

There was this study, led by the University of Birmingham, that suggested the opposite.

The UK’s decision to delay second doses of coronavirus vaccines has received fresh support from research on the over-80s which found that giving the Pfizer/BioNTech booster after 12 weeks rather than three produced a much stronger antibody response.

A study led by the University of Birmingham in collaboration with Public Health England found that antibodies against the virus were three-and-a-half times higher in those who had the second shot after 12 weeks compared with those who had it after a three-week interval.

Most people who have both shots of the vaccine will be well protected regardless of the timing, but the stronger response from the extra delay might prolong protection because antibody levels naturally wane over time.

Delay in giving second jabs of Pfizer vaccine improves immunity

Study finds antibodies against Sars-CoV-2 three-and-a-half times higher in people vaccinated again after 12 weeks rather than three

www.theguardian.com

 

[cupid_stunt]

This could potentially be another tool in the fight against covid.

British scientists say they have developed a ceiling-mounted Covid "alarm" that can detect anyone infected in as little as 15 minutes.

The highly-accurate device, slightly larger than a smoke alarm, is being hailed as a potential boon for screening in aircraft cabins, classrooms, care homes and offices, The Sunday Times reports.

Early studies by scientists at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine and Durham University look promising.

They appear to have shown the device has a level of accuracy that is as much as 98-100%, making is as reliable as gold-standard PCR lab-based Covid-19 tests and considerably more so than quick lateral flow tests.

The sensor, made by Cambridgeshire firm Roboscientific, works by detecting chemicals produced by the skin or present in the breath of those infected with coronavirus.

These "volatile organic compounds" create odour too subtle to be sniffed by the human nose.

A study by the Covid alarm's research team showed they could be detected by dogs, but the alarm would be more accurate and more practical.

Covid ceiling alarm developed that can 'detect virus in room within 15 minutes'

Early studies show the device developed by British scientists is accurate 98-100% of the time, making it just as reliable as PCR lab-based Covid tests

www.mirror.co.uk

 

[lazythursday]

Can you imagine the panic when it goes off though. And the accusations of who looked the most peaky.

 

[StoneRoad]

And "Who was in here 15 minutes ago ?"

 

[elbows]

Delayed.

Covid: Lockdown easing in England to be delayed by four weeks

Most current Covid rules will remain for four more weeks after 21 June, government sources say.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[beesonthewhatnow]

Delayed.

Covid: Lockdown easing in England to be delayed by four weeks

Most current Covid rules will remain for four more weeks after 21 June, government sources say.

www.bbc.co.uk

Good.

 

[pesh]

i'm sure the numbers will be much better in 4 weeks

 

[Numbers]

i'm sure the numbers will be much better in 4 weeks

Thanks pesh it's been a rough ride but hoping I'm good soon.

 

[maomao]

i'm sure the numbers will be much better in 4 weeks

By 'better' do you mean 'much much higher'?

 

[beesonthewhatnow]

So, numbers are rising, so rather than tightening restrictions we’re going to just wait for 4 weeks, with the same restrictions that are currently allowing numbers to rise.

I… can see a flaw in this plan.

 

[Supine]

So, numbers are rising, so rather than tightening restrictions we’re going to just wait for 4 weeks, with the same restrictions that are currently allowing numbers to rise.

I… can see a flaw in this plan.

We’re going to beat this virus with plucky British spirit

 

[maomao]

So, numbers are rising, so rather than tightening restrictions we’re going to just wait for 4 weeks, with the same restrictions that are currently allowing numbers to rise.

I… can see a flaw in this plan.

Well, vaccinations, particularly second vaccinations should have increased significantly by the end of a month. So it's not like nothing at all will be different.

 

[StoneRoad]

Apparently [according to t'beeb] the walking haystack is doing an announcement at 18:00 today.
Although the delay has been well signposted by repeated leaks from govt sources ...

Shall we run a sweepstake on when the first "Alas" appears, and how many we get ?

 

[Petcha]

This decision was finalised at least 10 days ago. It's a disgrace that it wasn't communicated to businesses then and there to stop them hiring staff, buying stock etc.

 

[Supine]

This decision was finalised at least 10 days ago. It's a disgrace that it wasn't communicated to businesses then and there to stop them hiring staff, buying stock etc.

it was finalised yesterday