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And next, Syria?

Not so, merely pointing out your blinkered imperialist logic, ably demonstrated by yourself throughout the last few pages.

However, you've clearly marked yourself out now, so I'll leave you to have the last word. Do your best - maybe call me a drunk again?
 

Allepo will be kicking off soon, Id assume therell be plenty of payback once theyve the jihadists surrounded. Saw a news report the other day from there and the journalist was actually asking them why their morale seemed so low . The jihadists mumbled something about the kurds stabbing them in the back . Their future isnt looking too rosy now . The danger for civilians is theyll probably try and kill as many unbelievers and blasphemers as possible before theyre routed .
 
Allepo will be kicking off soon
Allepo might be harder than the SAA & it's jihadist allies from Iran & Hez expected if the US can get more arms to the rebs. The chem weapons thing is just an excuse of course. The important thing is the rebs will hopefully now have more effective weaponry.
The U.S. will sendmilitary support to Syrian rebels after finding the Syrian regime used chemical weapons on the opposition “multiple times,” the White House said Thursday, escalating involvement in a civil war in which President Barack Obama has resisted military involvement.

Rhodes said the administration hasn’t ruled anything out, except putting U.S. troops on the ground in Syria.
http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2013/06/13/193903/us-says-syria-used-chemical-weapons.html#.UbppTIXbw6s

 
Allepo will be kicking off soon, ... The jihadists mumbled something about the kurds stabbing them in the back . Their future isnt looking too rosy now .
Syrian rebels clash with Kurdish militias
Al-Monitor. June 9.
Renewed clashes between Syrian insurgents and Kurdish groups have erupted in the province of Aleppo and quickly spread to other cities in northern Syria. Several combatants have been killed in fights between Liwa al-Tawhid and its allies and the Kurdish People’s Defense Units (YPG) since May 25 in the countryside of northern Aleppo, after Syrian rebels accused the Kurdish armed group of supporting the besieged Shiite towns of Nubul and Zahra.
It will come back to haunt the USA if they arm Al-Qaeda/Jabhat al-Nusra
 
Hezbollah running Tripoli now. Observers there are reporting that Hezbollah are kidnapping, torturing and murdering refugees in Lebanon, both Sunni and Shia. Young Sunni men being accused of being spies then disappearing. Young Shia men being forced to go back to Syria to fight with Assad. If they refuse, some are being killed. Can only see the refugee crisis getting worse with the coming bombardment of Aleppo.
 
Hezbollah running Tripoli now. Observers there are reporting that Hezbollah are kidnapping, torturing and murdering refugees in Lebanon, both Sunni and Shia. Young Sunni men being accused of being spies then disappearing. Young Shia men being forced to go back to Syria to fight with Assad. If they refuse, some are being killed. Can only see the refugee crisis getting worse with the coming bombardment of Aleppo.
how the "we are all hezbollah'' SWP taking it?
 
Hezbollah running Tripoli now.

Can only see the refugee crisis getting worse with the coming bombardment of Aleppo.
This war is sort of analogous to Yugoslavia. Assad is a Milosevic type. Atrocities going on & on....93,000 dead so far. The war has the potential of engulfing the whole region. Refugees are pouring into US allies Jordan & Turkey as well as Lebanon none of which can handle it. Iraq could even be drawn in on the side of Assad. It's already allowing Iran to ship supplies to him. Obama & co are probably thinking this thing can't continue & Assad (& Iran) can't come out on top.

The Europeans yelled the loudest but did virtually nothing. Saudi gave a small trickle of arms to the rebs. Be interesting to see if the US will really do anything significant & if it can manage to arm the non-Islamist rebs.
 
If Al-Nusrah and the Jihadi's win then the Alawites in Syria are dead. that's 15% of the population, just under 3 million people (ish). And the Shia and the Druze and the Christians will be in big trouble, although to a lesser extent than the Alawite. They've already started with the ethnic cleansing, should the state collapse then it will continue unabated until the "takfiri" apostates are all dead or have left. The only word that describes this is genocide - is the west prepared to sponsor genocide in Syria purely to isolate Iran, and by extension, prevent Russian and Chinese interference in the middle-east? Are we willing to see killing on that scale just to temporarily get an advantage in the regional realpolitick?

There are 30,000 jihadi salafists from all over the world fighting in Syria, with the most effective military units under the command of Al-Queada. These people are being indoctrinated into a sick ideology that justifies practically any barbaric crime and seeks to established a world caliphate based on a literal salafist interpretation of the Qu'ran and Hadith. It's astonishing to think that Michael Adebolajo is in custody in a jail cell for waging his jihad here in London, but if he had answered the call and gone to Syria instead William Hague would be giving him money and support. Are we prepared to fight side by side with Al-Queada simply to marginalise Iran? All this because of the United States hurt pride because of what happened in 1979?

Many hundreds of these jihadi's rampaging around Syria are British citizens, and have British passports. When they come back, win or lose, do you think they're going to give up on their mujahadeen fantasy and live peacefully here? Really? I predict, here and now, that if we back the Syrian rebels and they overthrow ther govt that not only will it lead to acts of mass murder on a terrible scale, but that a generation of well trained and battle-hardened jihadi's will be able to establish themselves in this country. A few dozen of these lads on the loose is enough to destroy the whole political settlement we live under. It's not even that which is scary, because a few hundred jihadi's might be able to wage a low-intensity war in London and other big cities but they're not going to overthrow the British state. However a few major terrorist attacks and the reactionary backlash will be unstoppable. Fascism here we come.

Please tell me I'm being unreasonable and that I'm wrong about all this.
 
Many hundreds of these jihadi's rampaging around Syria are British citizens, and have British passports. When they come back, win or lose, do you think they're going to give up on their mujahadeen fantasy and live peacefully here? Really? I predict, here and now, that if we back the Syrian rebels and they overthrow ther govt that not only will it lead to acts of mass murder on a terrible scale, but that a generation of well trained and battle-hardened jihadi's will be able to establish themselves in this country. A few dozen of these lads on the loose is enough to destroy the whole political settlement we live under. It's not even that which is scary, because a few hundred jihadi's might be able to wage a low-intensity war in London and other big cities but they're not going to overthrow the British state. However a few major terrorist attacks and the reactionary backlash will be unstoppable. Fascism here we come.

Please tell me I'm being unreasonable and that I'm wrong about all this.

Hundreds is pushing it, my guess, dozens more like - probably similar to the numbers that went to Afghanistan.

Most of the foreign jihadis are the Salafi back up from the Peninsular Arabia and the Gulf.
 
It is bad news all around - the moderates are being weakened, Lebanon is beginning to crack again on broadly sectarian-ish lines into pro- or anti-Hezbollah aiding Assad, and massacres continue.


One result of the changed fortunes on the battlefield, according to American officials, is that the credibility of the moderate Syrian opposition, which the United States has been publicly backing, may have been diminished and that extremist factions may gain influence.

Britain and France have indicated that they might be prepared to provide arms to the rebels in August after an anticipated international peace conference. But that conference, envisioned for June, has now been deferred.

Arms to them after a peace conference :hmm:
 
Hundreds is pushing it, my guess, dozens more like - probably similar to the numbers that went to Afghanistan.

Most of the foreign jihadis are the Salafi back up from the Peninsular Arabia and the Gulf.

I dunno about that y'know, maybe "hundreds" is pushing it but I'd be confident it's more than dozens. Lot of reports of British, French and Belgium Muslims being found fighting in Syria. Saw an interview with a Hezbollah commander (I'll try finding the video later but I'm a bit knackered atm) saying he encountered a company of 120 or so fighters in Qusayr who were using English to communicate with each other - possibly as a lingua franca as there are so many nationalities in that company, possibly because of a large number of English-speaking muslims now over there fighting, or (as is likely) it's pure propaganda. My point still stands even if it is only a few dozen - look what two men in woolwich did, look what two men in Boston did, it doesn't take much y'know.

How many of the backup from the Gulf states are just those countries opening up their jails and sending the most violent terrorists they have over to Syria (and also Iraq, where the sectarian civil war is also picking up pace) do you suppose?
 
I dunno about that y'know, maybe "hundreds" is pushing it but I'd be confident it's more than dozens. Lot of reports of British, French and Belgium Muslims being found fighting in Syria. Saw an interview with a Hezbollah commander (I'll try finding the video later but I'm a bit knackered atm) saying he encountered a company of 120 or so fighters in Qusayr who were using English to communicate with each other - possibly as a lingua franca as there are so many nationalities in that company, possibly because of a large number of English-speaking muslims now over there fighting, or (as is likely) it's pure propaganda. My point still stands even if it is only a few dozen - look what two men in woolwich did, look what two men in Boston did, it doesn't take much y'know.

How many of the backup from the Gulf states are just those countries opening up their jails and sending the most violent terrorists they have over to Syria (and also Iraq, where the sectarian civil war is also picking up pace) do you suppose?

Maybe lingua franca for Euro and US and out of place South Asian jihadis.

On the Gulf states I have no idea.
 
Syrian-rebel-fighters-bel-008.jpg


Good to see James Ransone getting more work after Generation Kill.
 
http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/06/14/uk-syria-crisis-zone-idUKBRE95D06A20130614

The United States is studying setting up a limited no-fly zone in Syria close to the southern border with Jordan, two senior Western diplomats in Turkey said on Friday.

Their comments, confirmed by a third regional diplomat, came after Washington said it would step up military assistance to rebels battling President Bashar al-Assad in response to what it said was proof of chemical weapons use by Assad's forces.

"Washington is considering a no-fly zone to help Assad's opponents," one diplomat said. He said it would be limited "time-wise and area-wise, possibly near the Jordanian border", without giving details.

So it looks like the contribution to the FSA/Al-Qaeda war effort is going to be significant. Christians to Beirut, Alawites to the grave and God bless NATO!
 
Please tell me I'm being unreasonable and that I'm wrong about all this.


Blowback risk is real but there are a number of ways to seriously reduce the numbers of potential candidates:

Some will be killed or seriously injured fighting overseas. Some will stay where they are or find other countries to continue the overt fighting in. Some will have had enough of violence, some will only want to fight in civil wars rather than indulge in terrorism in countries that have no prospect of becoming the sort of states they favour. Some will be tracked from the moment they return, others will end up on the radar as a result of forming connections with organisations that have already been compromised by the state.

Plus the UK has significant prior experience of indulging in the use of, or at least tolerating the use of such fighters overseas. Plus if we look at the sort of people who seem to end up actually engaging in terrorism in the west, they tend not to be people who have been in proper battles overseas, although they may well be radicalised by people who once saw 'proper action'.

None of this makes me extremely complacent, but it does prevent me from thinking that the worst-case blowback scenarios are extremely likely.
 
Are we willing to see killing on that scale just to temporarily get an advantage in the regional realpolitick? Please tell me I'm being unreasonable and that I'm wrong about all this.

I fear the answers are.... yes, (if in US national interest), No and No you're not.:(

Good post btw.
 
Allepo might be harder than the SAA & it's jihadist allies from Iran & Hez expected if the US can get more arms to the rebs. The chem weapons thing is just an excuse of course. The important thing is the rebs will hopefully now have more effective weaponry.

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2013/06/13/193903/us-says-syria-used-chemical-weapons.html#.UbppTIXbw6s


I suspect there's a bigger and more important question about whether they have alienated the locals so thoroughly that they are deprived of a base of operations.
 
The Russians hypocrites? No way.

Russia has consistently obstructed US-led attempts to bring sanctions against Assad's regime for the bloody conflict that has resulted in almost 100,000 deaths in Syria, and millions of people displaced. Officials say they do not support Assad and are merely against foreign intervention on principle, but Moscow has continued to supply arms and other aid to Assad as his last major ally alongside Iran.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/jun/14/russia-us-syria-chemical-weapons
 
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