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And next, Syria?

It would appear that jihadist groups have managed to obtain supplies of of antiaircraft missiles though where they have come from is unclear.

Also the youtube vid that the Graun article links to, the guy speaking sounds like he's spent quite some time in the U.K. possibly even bought up here - anyone else think the same?
 
It would appear that jihadist groups have managed to obtain supplies of of antiaircraft missiles though where they have come from is unclear.

there's a decent quality video of an attack on a SyAF helicopter thats been on the news in the last few days - MANPAD (certainly looks to me like a SA-16/18 family weapon), clear blue sky, helicopter at about 2/3,000ft tootling about not doing much in the way of defensive flying of popping flares and no escort, with what looked like a proximity detonation very close to the helicopter. unfortunately, someone decided to stand in front of the TV at this point, so i don't know if the helicopter survived or was destroyed, and nor could i tell what kind of helicopter it was.

how many they've got, how servicable they are, how well trained they are (it might look like 'point and squirt', but MANPADS like this have a pretty small No Escape Zone, and unless you use the weapon in that zone your kill probability is not far off squat-diddly) is a matter of debate. they were produced in the SU from the late 70's/early 80's and exported to 30+ countries since then, they are a Company level weapon in Soviet doctrine and probably hundreds of thousands were produced.
 
the war continuing - the Jihadist ideology will provide enough warm bodies, and Saudi Arabia and Quatar enough arms, to keep this war going almost regardless of what the Syrian government does. the longer the war goes on, and the more desperate the rebel groups get, the more likely the war will spread to Lebanon, and therefore HB will retaliate and spread the war to Jordan or Turkey.

also worth remembering that this is a proxy war between the Gulf States and Iran - the longer it goes on the more likely the conflict, even if not in 'hot' terms, spills into the Gulf: that has a very direct impact on the lives of everyone in this country through the price of oil, everything gets more expensive as its costlier to produce and get to the consumer, and the price of energy goes through the roof.

That is rather absurd logic. If we do not give arms to certain groups of people there will be a massive conflagration. However, if we do give arms to the same groups of people, the people of Syria will peacefully develop a democratic, secular state. Clearly I am missing something.

If this doesn't happen and the war simply escalates as a result of our weapons, who gets the blame? Still Assad?
 
The purpose of supporting the Syrian 'rebels' is to prolong the war. The Friends of Jihad are scrambling to get weapons into Syria now because they are worried that if they do not it will be a matter of weeks or months before the incumbent regime is able to prevail across the whole country. The priority is to continue the war until regime change is achieved.

For me the least worst option is that the incumbant regime, secular and supported by over 70% of the multi-sectarian Syrian population its able to bring the war to an end within weeks.... followed by a well observed political processes of reform to which the regime is most vulnerable in peace, and foiling the FoJ.

who knows what's possible.
 
The priority is the to continue the war until regime change is achieved.

I agree with your post, but I reckon they might settle for a hobbled Syria, one in a state of long term slow grinding civil war like Iraq, rather than full regime change which would open the door to Al-Queada and isn't looking feasible anyway. Either way, they've got a strong position with Syria in ruins, Hezbollah drawn into the quagmire, with Iran very isolated. Iran's new president looks quite amenable to US pressure as well, at least more so than Ahmadenijad was, so from a US point of view they're getting what they want out of this. Russia's causing a pain in the arse but otherwise they've got Iran exactly where they want them.
 
Not really. The point about chem weapons is true but the rest sounded like it was written by the Assad propaga dept......"the Bilderberg meeting has ended"....."McCain the demonic Zionist puppet"....treacherous dogs of the FSA."

It does sound a bit off in parts... but if only you could know how you sound to me.

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Syria-girl genuinely does make a lot more sense overall than you and the McCainiacs do though.
 
Allepo might be harder than the SAA & it's jihadist allies from Iran & Hez expected if the US can get more arms to the rebs. The chem weapons thing is just an excuse of course. The important thing is the rebs will hopefully now have more effective weaponry.

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2013/06/13/193903/us-says-syria-used-chemical-weapons.html#.UbppTIXbw6s


the important thing is the USA is in breach of both international and domestic law by providing military assistance to Al Qaeda terrorists, and yet again falsifying claims of WMD simply to excuse committing the crime of war of aggression against a sovereign state. The important thing is your country is yet again guilty of serious war crimes.

Another important thing is a rebel commander in Aleppo openly admitted to journalists almost 3 quarters of the citys population support Assad. So US weapons will now be directly used by Al Qaeda to oppress the citys population , shoot kids heads off for blasphemy, heresy etc.
 
...This is really really bad news.

if it happens, it is.

my scepticism about such things however says that it may well be wishful thinking on somebodys part, or that its a political/diplomatic move entended to push the rebels to the negotiating table, or that its one of the many 'great ideas' that governments all over the world have that get ditched as soon as they wake up the next morning and say 'we decided what?'...

if it happens, or really, really looks like happening, then its very, very bad news.
 
Hundreds is pushing it, my guess, dozens more like - probably similar to the numbers that went to Afghanistan.

.

syrias a lot easier to get to , just a cheap tourist flight to Turkey and you can walk straight into an Al Qaeda recruiting centre . Id estimate a few hundred .
 
The USA and us should leave the whole lot of them to fight this one out themselves. The Syrian rebels seem to be islamist jihadis. Why on earth would it make sense for America to arm them?

The sooner Assad's lot crush them, the better, I say.

He might not be democratic, but at least he doesn't have a beard.

Giles..
 
This is old news isn't it? There have been reports for several months that Iranian troops & Rev. Guards have been fighting in Syria.
Tit for tat media management after the story about those Syrian officers defecting to Turkey? Easier to do now with the elections over.

Mirror 16 June 2013
Royal Marines with chemical warfare kits are heading to Syria’s doorstep this week as civil war intensifies, the Sunday People can reveal.

On Friday 130 members of 42 Commando, based in Plymouth, will leave for Syria neighbour Jordan to join 5,000 US marines and 15 other nations for war games codenamed Eager Lion 13.

But with 800 British troops already in the desert kingdom awaiting deployment to Afghanistan, our soldiers are ideally placed should the West move against President Bashar al-Assad’s regime.
War games.
 
Blowback is always a danger. But, I don't see how an Islamist getting their hands on an anti-tank weapon to fight Assad increases the likelihood of AQ flying planes into buildings or blowing up tube stations. They already want & plan to do that.

I don't want Assad to survive the Arab spring. I remember the fallout from arming the mujaheddin but mistakes can be learned from & things done differently. The threat from the Islamists was caused by delay & indecision in the West. This is one of the few times when I think the West should intervene. I'm glad it happened in Libya & I hope it's not too late to help overthrow the Assad monarchy.

they killed your fucking ambassador in Libya, you twat
 


i fail to see any hypocrisy in their position . Syria is a secular sovereign state which isnt involved in any war of agression against another state, Russia isnt breaching any international or domestic law . Al Qaeda however are actually a very dangerous and fanatical terrorist conspiracy and arming them...or indeed any non state player...is a serious breach of international law.
 
That was just one small group you twat.

how does one small group overrun an embassy compound in an engagement that lasted a considerable period of time.
Youll be telling us next it was only one small group that massacred 31 protestors in Benghazi the other day. Libya is fucked.
 
air strikes on Syrian government targets carries the 'upsides' of keeping the targetting and weapons under our control, of reducing - for example - the ability of the Syrian Air Force to attck rebel forces, and it would mean the Syrian government would have to divert resources its currently using to fight the rebels to Air Defence tasks; some of the reports that i've read suggest that the Syrian AD infrastructure has been hollowed out to provide more ground forces.

.

air strikes arent an option unless the S 300 batteries are taken out first . Right now as we speak Russian military advisors are training their Syrian army counterparts in how to use them. If western airtsrikes kill Russian military personnel the consequences could well be very serious indeed.
 
how does one small group overrun an embassy compound in an engagement that lasted a considerable period of time.
Youll be telling us next it was only one small group that massacred 31 protestors in Benghazi the other day. Libya is fucked.


Funny how much we hear about Libya now it's 'free' isn't it? The narrative has been decided, as it was for Kosovo, that the intervention was entirely benign and we can continue as before...
 
air strikes arent an option unless the S 300 batteries are taken out first . Right now as we speak Russian military advisors are training their Syrian army counterparts in how to use them. If western airtsrikes kill Russian military personnel the consequences could well be very serious indeed.
The Syrian air force can be disabled with cruise missiles strikes on the bases. The S 300s can't touch them.
 
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