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The main reason for Russia’s decision to become militarily involved in Syria was its desire to secure its
bases in western Syria that guarantee it access to the Mediterranean Sea. In other words, to Moscow, the relationship with Damascus has an obvious geopolitical dimension and is directly related to its “hard” interests. In the case of Russia’s
relations with Iran, however, ties have so far been limited to economic exchanges, the arms trade and, at the highest level, cooperation in the sphere of nuclear technology. For Russia, however, none of these areas of collaboration are considered strategic or non-negligible interests.
Thus, it could be argued in general that what Russia has so far been trying to achieve through its Middle East policy is obtain US recognition of its role and interests as an equal. If Russia can achieve this primary objective by establishing a successful balance of power or by another means — such as some form of compromise — its approach toward its international partnerships will change or at least result in a slower pace for the development of such partnerships.
Under these circumstances, the Russian-Iranian relationship can only move toward a serious partnership or an alliance by either being institutionalized through genuine Iranian engagement with Russian-centered regional initiatives, such as the Eurasian Economic Union, or by expanding the level of bilateral cooperation to a more structured relationship in “harder” political and security spheres, such as the signing of a mutual security agreement with certain conditions and promises. As such, given Moscow’s current foreign policy approach, if Iran really wants to elevate the level of its bilateral relationship with Russia, now is the best time to do so. If not, Iran should have in place alternative plans for the day when regional and international circumstances change.
