Why the lib-dems are shit

[JTG]

A bit parochial, but definitely deserves a mention.

WINNING HERE!

http://www.bristolpost.co.uk/Counci...d-new-leader/story-21148230-detail/story.html

Fucking Knowle

 

[butchersapron]

roadto326@roadto326
Alexander criticises poll for only asking 0.5% of constituents, but national polls only ask 0.001% of voters, and are broadly accurate...

 

[brogdale]

Aren't national polls done with around 1000? So for a single constituency that's easily enough

Better to compare with other single constituency polling; Ashcroft's recent polling in marginals was based on a sample size of 1000 in each constituency. I'm assuming that Oakeshott's pockets weren't as deep as the bent baron's.

 

[King Biscuit Time]

All the twitter chatter about this today - We need a rich mischief maker to just stump up for it to be done properly.

 

[butchersapron]

Give us money brand. Show yourself.

 

[brogdale]

Anthony Well's take...although nothing on sample size...

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/8848

 

[butchersapron]

Anthony Well's take...although nothing on sample size...

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/8848

the effect of incumbency and tactical voting is far higher for Lib Dem MPs

This is something i've been struggling with - the incumbency effect - i can get it's real, and i can get it can help when times are bad - but when times are disastrous? Doesn't it sort of reverse itself and become (apart from real big hitters) and become a drag - something around which people rally or use as an excuse to vote against? I'd need to compare 97 stuff with other landslides but, i think in exceptional conditions the rule won't hold.

Being a lib-dem MP is not going to help when it's being an lib-dem MP that people are reacting against.

 

[brogdale]

This is something i've been struggling with - the incumbency effect - i can get it's real, and i can get it can help when times are bad - but when times are disastrous? Doesn't it sort of reverse itself and become (apart from real big hitters) and become a drag - something around which people rally or use as an excuse to vote against? I'd need to compare 97 stuff with other landslides but, i think in exceptional conditions the rule won't hold.

Being a lib-dem MP is not going to help when it's being an lib-dem MP that people are reacting against.

Yeah, I get what you're saying...and tbh I've never seen it as anything more than LDs (having the time) to be seen as good constituency MPs being pretty proactive on the dogshit and street lighting front. But, coming from LB Sutton where the local incumbency effect has again apparently cut in to increase their stranglehold on the borough, and Brake/Burstow look reasonably safe, I'm not really the best person to make such a call.

 

[agricola]

I still can't quite see them losing yeovil - the ghost of paddy rides hard in those parts.

Someone else who conducted some surreptitious polling, of course.

 

[treelover]

Great example of a dormant Labour vote, squashed by nearly two decades of tactical voting, returning to life. You'll see this across the rural West too

If the L/D's shift back to the centre left, would this have an impact on the labour vote?

 

[JTG]

If the L/D's shift back to the centre left, would this have an impact on the labour vote?

No, because they lay down with Tories

 

[butchersapron]

If the L/D's shift back to the centre left, would this have an impact on the labour vote?

Of course not.

 

[treelover]

Good.

could you explain why?

 

[brogdale]

Holy moly...Cable's in up to his neck....

There has been some confusion in the lobby tonight because the Press Association is running this quote from the Vince Cable interview.

In this particular case, Lord Oakeshott asked my election campaign manager if we wanted a poll done in my local constituency, we said yes. It was a private, local poll done for general election planning, absolutely nothing to do with national leadership.

I was aware he was conducting other polls around the country. I was told in general terms what the trends were.

But I had absolutely no knowledge, and was certainly not involved in any commissioning of surveys done in Sheffield Hallam and Inverness and criticised them very severely yesterday.

But this is missing this phrase - "and in one particular case concerning my parliamentary private secretary Tessa Munt from Wells, we sat down and discussed the details with her" - which I've got from another journalist who heard the full interview. (See 6.24pm)

This is the key section, because it shows that Cable was aware that a poll was being carried out that included questions that asked if Munt was more likely to keep her seat with him as leader.

(In the event, it showed that her vote would go up three points with Cable as leader, but that she would still lose heavily to the Conservatives.)

St, Vincent's gotta go...

 

[butchersapron]

The cover up always gets them...

 

[DotCommunist]

shall we have a countdown to resignation?

 

[ddraig]

going out in a few days and there will be a LD strategist and also a prospective LD cllr there!
obviously there is loads but what killer points should i use without making them cry and run away?

not that they will want to talk about it of course

 

[steeplejack]

would be a glorious side effect; Oakshott throws a hand grenade and the shrapnel kills his best pal.

Cable has been so badly found out since 2010. Generously, he's been a consumate mediocrity, having spent years wringing his hands in opposition and gaining a bizarre reputation as a mixture between an economic sage and the Messiah.

never tire of watching him reduced to a smouldering wreck by Andrew Neill:

 

[brogdale]

beaker must be loving this

 

[killer b]

vince is so shit.

 

[Kaka Tim]

This is great! And theres the potential lost deposit in next weeks by-election to set the cat further amongst the pigeons.

 

[chilango]

South Lakeland has a significant proportion of wealthy incomers/second home owners who I wouldn't be surprised to hear exercise their vote there propping up the "safe" LibDem rather than in the safe Labour seats from where many of them hail.

Be interesting to know if this a genuine factor (rather than my over active imagination extrapolating from individuals I know) and whether Labour can harness the resentment of the poorly paid local workers...

 

[Kaka Tim]

Oakshott throws a hand grenade and the shrapnel kills his best pal.

innit! Oh you lib dems - evil, yet pathetic.

 

[belboid]

South Lakeland has a significant proportion of wealthy incomers/second home owners who I wouldn't be surprised to hear exercise their vote there propping up the "safe" LibDem rather than in the safe Labour seats from where many of them hail.

Be interesting to know if this a genuine factor (rather than my over active imagination extrapolating from individuals I know) and whether Labour can harness the resentment of the poorly paid local workers...

well, Labour got 2.2% in Farrons constituency there last time, down from 20.6% in 1997, so.....no, they cant.

 

[brogdale]

Hughes...

It's clearly completely unacceptable for somebody who is a party member, who owes his position entirely to the party, not to the electorate, entirely to the party, then to act in a way that is self-evidently against the interests of the party. Vince is working for the party and the Government in China. We are working here. We have work to do and the party needs to concentrate on our objectives as well as our achievements ...

The only person who has persistently acted in a way which strikes me as a close observer in ways that sought to destabilise the leadership of Nick Clegg, democratically-elected, the first Liberal Democrat leader in government ever, the first Liberal in government to lead the party since the war, the only person who systematically acted in that way has been Matthew Oakeshott.

Desperate stuff.

 

[chilango]

well, Labour got 2.2% in Farrons constituency there last time, down from 20.6% in 1997, so.....no, they cant.

Hmmm. Can they get back to somewhere near that '97 result though?

 

[belboid]

not with this shower!

 

[steeplejack]

My reading is this; Clegg may well be privately seething at Cable's disloyalty, but has already worked out that losing Cable at such a sensitive time will be nuclear, therefore he has no choice but to wear the humilation and bluff it out with the press.

 

[chilango]

not with this shower!

It's an interesting consituency though with the retirees and second home owners on one hand and poorly paid seasonal workers on the other providing the potential for uncertainty.

 

[brogdale]

My reading is this; Clegg may well be privately seething at Cable's disloyalty, but has already worked out that losing Cable at such a sensitive time will be nuclear, therefore he has no choice but to wear the humilation and bluff it out with the press.

Yesterday's men....what does beaker [(tory leader) Osborne's man] want?