Who is going to win the 2018/2019 Tory Leadership election?

[Pickman's model]

I think we'll wake in the morning to both Mourinho and May clinging on and divisions unresolved in both camps.

I don't want auld moany to leave utd

 

[chilango]

I don't want auld moany to leave utd

I don't want May to be deposed. Yet.

 

[brogdale]

Apparently a 100% turnout of the 0.00045% of the national electorate determining our Prime Minister.

 

[Pickman's model]

I don't want May to be deposed. Yet.

I do

 

[chilango]

I do

Well one of us will be "happy" in a bit.

 

[Sprocket.]

In 30 minutes it will be confirmed what we knew 24 hours since.

 

[8ball]

I do

I’m unsure.
A merciful release doesn’t feel right.

 

[Pickman's model]

I’m unsure.
A merciful release doesn’t feel right.

A walk to coffin top

 

[moochedit]

89 votes against = quite a significant figure.

There being 139 'payroll vote' MPs in Government out of the total 317 leaves 178 'free voters'.
50% of 178 = 89.

Jacob rees mogg just making same point about payroll mps right now on bbc news. (Has he read this? )
Actual vote 200 for 117 against.

 

[Crispy]

200 for
117 against

 

[Plumdaff]

So it's a victory that's actually a defeat then? Didn't Thatcher resign with more votes?

So this just fuels talk of a VONC in Parliament. The fuckup continues!

 

[brogdale]

Jacob rees mogg just making same point about payroll mps right now on bbc news. (Has he read this? )
Actual vote 200 for 117 against.

I briefed him earlier.

 

[brogdale]

117/178 of the 'free vote' = 66% have no confidence in her.

 

[mauvais]

I think you put far too much faith in the 'payroll' folk.

 

[brogdale]

I think you put far too much faith in the 'payroll' folk.

139 (200) really?

 

[belboid]

United 2-0 down too. An amusing night all round.

 

[mauvais]

139 (200) really?

We'll never know but I would happily bet that plenty of the payroll lot voted no confidence in the hope that a successful putsch brought them some personal benefit. To bet against this is to forget the duplicity of the Tories.

If I'm right then it doesn’t mean all that much except that she has slightly more support from the party outside of the context of a power grab.

 

[likesfish]

1/3rd of torys hate her

 

[StoneRoad]

I wonder if she voted for confidence in herself ?

 

[not-bono-ever]

A walk to coffin top

the long walk

 

[A380]

View attachment 155387

the long walk

Judge Mogg.

 

[StoneRoad]

Although the maybot survived this vote, 117 against is not a insubstantial number.

(and there will be probably be a change of leadership some time before the election)

 

[littlebabyjesus]

We'll never know but I would happily bet that plenty of the payroll lot voted no confidence in the hope that a successful putsch brought them some personal benefit. To bet against this is to forget the duplicity of the Tories.

If I'm right then it doesn’t mean all that much except that she has slightly more support from the party outside of the context of a power grab.

Definitely. Although I also suspect that various vultures will have decided to hang back and vote to keep her until after her deal has been rejected by parliament, at which point she'll have to resign anyway. That 200 will include those who genuinely think May should stay and those who want her to go but not quite yet.

 

[brogdale]

Spouting crap he doesn't believe to maximise appeal across the factions; reckon the 22% are on the right lines here...

 

[brogdale]

Someone helpfully saved a (subsequently deleted) portion of the C4News interview with Sajid Javid from last May in which he was questioned about tax evasion by the bank in which he was a senior manager:-

The censored Sajid Javid interview on tax evasion at Deutsche Bank | Mr Ethical

Slimy much?

 

[brogdale]

Bump (off?)

 

[SpackleFrog]

Still think someone Remoany.

 

[Sprocket.]

Slimy Hunt?

 

[Pickman's model]

no one

no one will win the tory leadership, just as no one succeeded auld gorby as leader of the cpsu

they shall be hunted down in the streets like rabid dogs

 

[killer b]

I say this every time, but Gove. He's by some distance the most skilled politician in the government, and has positioned himself perfectly. His only weaknesses are that he's a deeply repulsive character and given to overshooting, but if he manages to get round these issues he's a shoo-in.