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Who is going to win the 2018/2019 Tory Leadership election?

Who is going to win the 2018/2019 Tory Leadership election?

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Brainaddict said:
He doesn't need to keep parliament together for a no-deal brexit. As people have begun to cotton onto, you can't vote away a deadline. Since a no-deal would create something close to a state of emergency, parliament would no doubt fall into line as the deadline approaches just to try to limit the damage. For the Tories that will mean imposing the kind of policies they always want to implement anyway.
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But he would have to keep the tories together as a voting block to resist any opposition motions put to rule out no deal. I know a similar one was lost last week, but there will be further attempts before October. The speaker is very likely to allow anti-no deal motions.

Edit: and the more he shapes up for something like no deal, the greater solidity he gives the anti-no deal lot. Yes, there will be brinkmanship and people shitting themselves back into line on both sides. But he still has to navigate his way round a parliament that is still 'deal minded'.
 
Wilf said:
But he would have to keep the tories together as a voting block to resist any opposition motions put to rule out no deal. I know a similar one was lost last week, but there will be further attempts before October. The speaker is very likely to allow anti-no deal motions.
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The problem is that, short of revoking article 50 (which won't get through parliament), all attempts to put off no-deal require the EU to maintain patience and keep extending deadlines. With a right-wing Tory leader as PM I don't think they'll see the point in that. So whatever parliament votes for, the EU will see the PM won't negotiate a new deal seriously, so they'll refuse any further extensions. At that point we crash out and Johnson can and will blame the EU. The economy will tank, foreigners will be blamed for it, and Johnson will thrive. I'm afraid this is the path I see as increasingly likely.

I hope I'm wrong.
 
Fwiw, I do think there will be a different 'feel' about the Johnson version of the brexit debate. The last 12 months was dead woman walking, everyone stuck in their camps waiting for what came afterwards. A massive Johnson victory will, for some purposes, unite the erg lot with less manic tory brexiteers. Johnson will claim he won on brexit, to be added to the national vote in 2016. That will become the dominant voice in parliament, though it might finally push Labour into an unambiguous position and it might push a few Tories into blocking new deal (esp. under their new spiritual leader, Rory whatsit).

Back to populism, it will be interesting to see how remain minded tories are dealt with under Johnson. A shouty response, along with 'traitor' type accusation could push them towards the TIGs Chuks Libdems. Could see a couple of lost souls and poor lambs head of thataways.
 
Wilf said:
Fwiw, I do think there will be a different 'feel' about the Johnson version of the brexit debate. The last 12 months was dead woman walking, everyone stuck in their camps waiting for what came afterwards. A massive Johnson victory will, for some purposes, unite the erg lot with less manic tory brexiteers. Johnson will claim he won on brexit, to be added to the national vote in 2016. That will become the dominant voice in parliament, though it might finally push Labour into an unambiguous position and it might push a few Tories into blocking new deal (esp. under their new spiritual leader, Rory whatsit).

Back to populism, it will be interesting to see how remain minded tories are dealt with under Johnson. A shouty response, along with 'traitor' type accusation could push them towards the TIGs Chuks Libdems. Could see a couple of lost souls and poor lambs head of thataways.
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Yes, but I think a big difference with Johnson will be that he doesn't care about the wellbeing of the Tory party in the way that May does. He won't mind at all storing up future resentments and unresolvable conflicts. Johnson gives a shit about one person in all the world and that makes things simple for him.
 
killer b said:
I watched a bit of the Ch4 thing last night, and other than how boring everyone was, the only thing of note I took away from it was how repulsive Jeremy Hunt is. I actually retched when he started talking.
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I knew in theory that they were all horrible squabbling selfish stupid children just from what they do all the time, but I somehow thought they might have the self-awareness not to make it obvious on TV, yet there they all were, stepping on each other and boasting and lying and me me me.
 
Brainaddict said:
Yeah, if people think this looks bad it seems some of the lessons of Trump still haven't been learned (except by Johnson). The people he is appealing to like it when he is rude or contemptuous to the press, they like it when he is racist, they like it when he plays the idiot, they don't care about his record as mayor, they don't care about his diplomatic gaffes, they don't care that he lies, or that he got sacked from multiple jobs. It's not that none of this matters, it's that most of these things actively count in his favour. He's against the mythical liberal establishment, he's on 'our' side, he's confidently proud of 'Britishness' and therefore gives us some self-respect. All his lying and rudeness is just him being clever - on 'our' behalf. This is why he will probably win. Accusing him of things that his supporters already know, or pointing out his 'gaffes', is not going to help, just as it didn't help with Trump.

Thank god that stupid court case about him lying got dropped - it would have played right into his hands and absolutely guaranteed his victory. A right populist creates an 'us against them' that obscures class relations, and then invites you to join 'us' against some false version of 'the elite' that magically doesn't include the Johnsons and Farages. There's been a few people on here who every time Trump made some ever more idiotic or repulsive statement were saying 'This one surely will end him.' It never did. And another lie or 'gaffe' or racist comment from Johnson won't either. Pointing out that Johnson is on the side of the very rich and his program will lead to job losses and cuts to services is the work that needs to be done - not pointing out that he is a clown or a liar.
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Are you saying that he is appealing to racist thickos?
 
Without wishing to spoil the above joke at all, I suppose the stat is this one:

16.4% of adults in England, or 7.1 million people, can be described as having 'very poor literacy skills.' They can understand short straightforward texts on familiar topics accurately and independently, and obtain information from everyday sources, but reading information from unfamiliar sources, or on unfamiliar topics, could cause problems. This is also known as being functionally illiterate.
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Adult literacy | National Literacy Trust
 
Poot said:
I held my nose and went to the Daily Mail's comments section on this out of curiosity. The general consensus was that 'Boris' was right not to appear because it was all a bit argumentative.

I'm not going to put a cheerful facepalm emoji here because it's beyond a fucking joke. What the FUCK will it take for people to see through him? He is 100% stage managed. Even arriving late and pretending not to know what's going on. It's an act. That's why he can't do a tv debate. He doesn't have a personality, just a script.
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lots like this on radio phone ins, mini Trump here we come!
 
Ming said:
It’s funny how they try to humanize themselves. Like May’s dancing or Alexander and his bicycle. Or the drugs.
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Yes someone upthread mentioned this in connection with Stewart.They know that this idea of theirs being a zombie government has a resonance.As was mentioned Stewart was the only one on the C4 hustings that didn't look like he might have an on-off switch.
 
Without reading thread I'm sure Boris will win, which will be a massive own goal for the Tories.
He's loved by some, hated by many.

If they pick Rory i think Tory will pick up some votes from former labour voters disillusioned with the Corbynista.

All this seems pretty obvious so I'm sure it's been discussed already
 
treelover said:
Stewart is going to go for him in the debate.
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That is my expectation, if Stewart makes it through tomorrows round of voting of course. I suppose I feel like I'm being given the impression by certain articles and response to channel 4 debate that momentum has shifted to Stewart recently and so people think it much more likely he will survive the next vote, but I dont really know for sure.

I did poke around on youtube when people started talking about him, and quickly found an oxford union debate which demonstrated what sort of attacks on the likes of Farage and Adonis he has been at ease making in the past. There is waffle at the start but it takes him less than 2 minutes to start on them, and mercifully the entire video is only about 11 minutes.

 
belboid said:
Telegraph leading tomorrow with the exclusive news that Stewart was/is MI6

Did Rory Stewart spy for MI6? Intrigue surrounds Tory candidate's past as leadership race intensifies
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This is an odd one for an institution like the Torygraph to be reporting on. A 'whitehall source' said he was a spy for seven years. Even gives a timeframe to it! In what circumstances might it be legal under spying laws for a source to disclose that? What could he do other than deny it if it is true? Presumably the Torygraph approves in a general way of the existence of the secret services, yet they somehow expect it not to be secret as soon as they start asking questions.
 
Proper Tidy said:
Shocked that eton educated posh son of a colonial diplomat/spy chief who walked through Afghanistan smoking opium before becoming a Tory MP has links to the intelligence services
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Absolute scenes. Weird the Torygraph reporting that in a hostile way - it used to be the media conduit of choice for SIS. I suppose the owners have more pressing tax-related matters to worry about these days.
 
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