Who is going to win the 2018/2019 Tory Leadership election?

[elbows]

Stewarts 'realism' schtick could be used to justify just about anything, including strange bedfellows.

 

[ricbake]

Rory Stewart does look like he might have been the kid that Johnson and Cameron would have fucked in the face when they couldn't get hold of a dead pig.

 

[TheHoodedClaw]

The irresponsibility in the Johnson/Telegraph outing of Stewart like this, also threatens Stewart by making him a possible target for assault and attack.

Johnson has form for outing agents - he did the same to Dominic Lawson years ago.

 

[Patteran]

There's a lot of weird stuff going on which could indicate stuff going on behind the scenes - this is one thing, Stewart's Farage love-in is another. He isn't going to win - the bar chart I posted above clearly indicates why: but I can see this going down to Johnson v Stewart, Johnson winning but Stewart getting a prominent role in his cabinet as a fig leaf to pull in floating voters. So Stewart's run isn't about any realistic chance of winning, but about raising his profile as the reasonable face of conservatism for an autumn general election. Perhaps.

That's it, innit, that's Stewart's role - broaden the appeal in upcoming elections, a fake counter-balance to Johnson. Unite the Right behind those two & even add Farage - it could be pretty effective.

 

[killer b]

The tory party looks insane right now, but we have to assume there's some rational actors corralling things behind the scenes. If I were pulling the strings, taking the opportunity of the leadership election to introduce a fresh new face as centrist ballast to the electorate would be exactly what I'd do.

 

[Yossarian]

we have to assume there's some rational actors corralling things behind the scenes

 

[killer b]

like that, but they're all in grey suits.

 

[elbows]

Chatting to the card carrying Boris backing Tory who voted brexit party in work this morning, the MI6 stuff has done him a favour. Which was obvious really. Strange line of attack

Perhaps the attack was based on the fact they knew he couldnt give a completely straight answer to the question, and this can undermine the reputation he has apparently been gaining of talking straight with people (compared to the other liars).

When asked on BBC Radio 4's Today programme if he had been a spy, Mr Stewart replied: "I would definitely say I served my country. If someone asked me if I was a spy I would say no."

(from Tory leader hopefuls to face second vote )

 

[not-bono-ever]

Pretty much Any nom forces Brit employed by UKG In Afghanistan will have had contact with the security services at varying levels whether they were aware or not

 

[Raheem]

If he really is MI6, why doesn't he arrange for someone to slit BJ's throat and stuff him inside a postbox? Simpler than trying to beat him in an election where most of the voters wear blazers.

 

[skyscraper101]

If he was MI6 it makes a lot more sense that he'd go off "walking" across Afghan and write a book about it. There's probably way more to that that we officially know.

 

[JimW]

The wet who did wetwork.

 

[kebabking]

i'm not sure its particularly helpful or relevent as to whether Stewart was FCO or SIS - all diplomats are intelligence officers, and all intelligence officers are diplomats: everything they hear/learn goes into both the diplomatic pot and the SIS pot, and the diplomatic pot informs the SIS pot and vice versa.

Stewart was certainly in the more interesting end of FCO, but there are plenty of SIS officers who've never left Europe...

 

[Proper Tidy]

He's got a very conspicuous face for a spy

 

[kebabking]

He's got a very conspicuous face for a spy

the best cover for a spy is for everyone to think, nah, he couldn't be a spy... or is it?

 

[Yossarian]

the best cover for a spy is for everyone to think, nah, he couldn't be a spy... or is it?

 

[DotCommunist]

I hope r stewart ends up in a sports bag someday.

 

[MrSki]

Well the odds have come in slightly for Stewart. 10-1 is the best you can get today whereas it was 14-1 on Sunday after the C4 debate. Whether he can scrape the 33 votes needed tonight is yet to be seen. Not heard much support for him from other tory MPs.

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

The tory party looks insane right now, but we have to assume there's some rational actors corralling things behind the scenes. If I were pulling the strings, taking the opportunity of the leadership election to introduce a fresh new face as centrist ballast to the electorate would be exactly what I'd do.

Yeah, cos if there's one thing the past three years have demonstrated is that the vermin have a solid plan for this whole Brexit shiz and are just expertly executing it...

 

[Winot]

this is quite the bar chart.

So apart from the Corbyn point Tory party members agree with Lexiters.

 

[DotCommunist]

another take away is the only effective way to oppose brexit would have been to back corbyn, if only the near entirety of official remain had been told eh

 

[Proper Tidy]

I hope r stewart ends up in a sports bag someday.

Boris will fuck him if he ever goes to Iran

 

[elbows]

Well the odds have come in slightly for Stewart. 10-1 is the best you can get today whereas it was 14-1 on Sunday after the C4 debate. Whether he can scrape the 33 votes needed tonight is yet to be seen. Not heard much support for him from other tory MPs.

Lidington came out in support of him.

Stewart reckons he has got the 33, if none of the MPs that promised their support lied. But 33+ votes on its own isnt necessarily enough to survive todays vote either, he also needs to avoid coming last. I suppose I expect him to make it through this round, but I wont be shocked to my core if he doesnt.

 

[elbows]

the best cover for a spy is for everyone to think, nah, he couldn't be a spy... or is it?

I'm not even sure that the typical cover story actually needs to convince anyone that you arent a spy. The cover just needs to provide you with some other reason for being in the country, showing an interest in certain subjects and people, engaging in certain activities etc.

 

[Raheem]

Boris will fuck him if he ever goes to Iran

I understand that would be illegal there.

 

[killer b]

Yeah, cos if there's one thing the past three years have demonstrated is that the vermin have a solid plan for this whole Brexit shiz and are just expertly executing it...

I didn't say they have a solid plan - although I reckon it's probably more solid atm than it has been in some time - the euros will have concentrated their minds.

Whatever chaos is going on, they must know that they can't win with the mad right wing pro-brexit vote only: they need centrist swing voters. Stewart is how they attract them.

 

[Wilf]

The idea of Stewart somehow finding his way onto the final ballot is intriguing, if unlikely. Johnson would win, certainly, but the process becomes quirky and unpredictable.

 

[Pickman's model]

i'd love it if johnson's plea to his supporters to vote hunt to ensure the cunt's place in the next round leaves him with 32 votes as too many of his chums answer his call

 

[teuchter]

Why have they gone off Michael Gove, then?

 

[Wilf]

The idea of Stewart somehow finding his way onto the final ballot is intriguing, if unlikely. Johnson would win, certainly, but the process becomes quirky and unpredictable.

In fact, here is Tim Shipman saying something similar:

1) No hack really knows the nos
2) Hunt/Gove probably still ahead in 40-50 range
3) If Javid short of 33 and Stewart over
4) either Hunt/Gove do a deal or
5) Rory could be taking on Boris
6) Boris should beat him but he’s a disruptor and Boris has never been out disrupted before

Unlikely to happen because not enough Tory MPs will be corralled to support him, but it's one of those things that sometimes happens and causes waves.