Who is going to win the 2018/2019 Tory Leadership election?
- Thread starter brogdale
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Poot
My wife thinks I work too hard
I held my nose and went to the Daily Mail's comments section on this out of curiosity. The general consensus was that 'Boris' was right not to appear because it was all a bit argumentative.
I'm not going to put a cheerful facepalm emoji here because it's beyond a fucking joke. What the FUCK will it take for people to see through him? He is 100% stage managed. Even arriving late and pretending not to know what's going on. It's an act. That's why he can't do a tv debate. He doesn't have a personality, just a script.
kebabking
Not a Girly Swot, but I like them....
Smokeandsteam
Working Class First
What was telling, and one for the supporters of declinism to note, was the feeble intellectual performance of all of them.
This is driven home when you remember that when asked what the number one priority was, bar Brexit, not one had a macro vision for the economy, jobs, wealth creation, an industrial strategy etc. Instead, we had further emoting about mental health, social care, I believe the children are our future etc.
In fact, not one candidate had a single idea or even soundbite for the economy (bar some half baked waffle about apprenticeships - which was actually about pushing down the number of university applications).
The lack of ambition was pitiful.
This is driven home when you remember that when asked what the number one priority was, bar Brexit, not one had a macro vision for the economy, jobs, wealth creation, an industrial strategy etc. Instead, we had further emoting about mental health, social care, I believe the children are our future etc.
In fact, not one candidate had a single idea or even soundbite for the economy (bar some half baked waffle about apprenticeships - which was actually about pushing down the number of university applications).
The lack of ambition was pitiful.
krtek a houby
Anger is Hi-NRG
Made me think of Roy Hattersly's legendary non-appearance on HIGNFY (back when it was good)
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
i reckon that the way to sort this leadership thing out would be to make them all complete the grand national course at aintree, on foot. each time the last one is removed from the race and shot like a racehorse. so the winner would have run the course (in this case) nine times. and should then be taken out and shot.
Smokeandsteam
Working Class First
For the media bubble yes. In terms of having the election sewn up it makes sense. The potential gain in support with Tory MP's or members is outweighed by the potential for hostages for fortune or gaffes. The entire operation is planned.
Get him over the line.
Posture with EU technocrats before rapidly 'coming back to the people' and telling them what a bunch of unreasonable bastards they are and that a mandate is needed for delivering Brexit.
Check polls.
October GE.
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
you're having a laugh. the end game may be as you suggest but ALL the evidence is that johnson doesn't do plans, he does turn up on the night and hope it goes fine.
Wilf
Slouching towards Billingham
As I said, it won't make any difference and yes, I can see the calculation he's making here. Same time, it doesn't look good if an incoming prime minister can't answer questions and debate. It's no great surprise that he's a superficial self interested wanker, but yeah, this is him being a superficial self interested wanker.
Brainaddict
slight system overdrive
Yeah, if people think this looks bad it seems some of the lessons of Trump still haven't been learned (except by Johnson). The people he is appealing to like it when he is rude or contemptuous to the press, they like it when he is racist, they like it when he plays the idiot, they don't care about his record as mayor, they don't care about his diplomatic gaffes, they don't care that he lies, or that he got sacked from multiple jobs. It's not that none of this matters, it's that most of these things actively count in his favour. He's against the mythical liberal establishment, he's on 'our' side, he's confidently proud of 'Britishness' and therefore gives us some self-respect. All his lying and rudeness is just him being clever - on 'our' behalf. This is why he will probably win. Accusing him of things that his supporters already know, or pointing out his 'gaffes', is not going to help, just as it didn't help with Trump.
Thank god that stupid court case about him lying got dropped - it would have played right into his hands and absolutely guaranteed his victory. A right populist creates an 'us against them' that obscures class relations, and then invites you to join 'us' against some false version of 'the elite' that magically doesn't include the Johnsons and Farages. There's been a few people on here who every time Trump made some ever more idiotic or repulsive statement were saying 'This one surely will end him.' It never did. And another lie or 'gaffe' or racist comment from Johnson won't either. Pointing out that Johnson is on the side of the very rich and his program will lead to job losses and cuts to services is the work that needs to be done - not pointing out that he is a clown or a liar.
There was this interesting post from Jeremy Vine at the weekend, which suggests that an appearance of winging it is, in fact, planned.
you're having a laugh. the end game may be as you suggest but ALL the evidence is that johnson doesn't do plans, he does turn up on the night and hope it goes fine.
Brainaddict
slight system overdrive
btw the same goes for the idea that the Darius Guppy affair will finish him if more people know about it. No it won't. I have an idiot family member who would vote for Johnson and I can just imagine his reaction to that story: When we go into negotiations with the EU I want the type of person who would happily let someone's legs get broken on my side. Johnson's chummy personality is all about inviting you to be on his side. Once he's got you on side he can do as he likes. He might be a son of a bitch but he's 'our' sob type thinking.
krtek a houby
Anger is Hi-NRG
There's no doubt that the likes of Johnson and Trump are on the side of the rich, but (from personal experience) pointing that out to (some) people - it doesn't change their minds, either. It's all very depressing. Wasn't there a poll a while back, where respondents claimed they were willing to go through tough times (post Brexit) in order to "take the country back"?
Wilf
Slouching towards Billingham
I agree with all of that. I've posted similar things about the lying court case and certainly agree with the point on (incorrect) expectations that the next outrage will 'surely' bring trump down. Having said that, even with the Brexit Party topping the polls at the moment, I'm not sure the UK is quite at that point. It's well on and people are expressing more and more contempt for politicians/politics, something the left should have been able to make more of. But I'm not convinced we are quite there in terms of there being a full on populist movement with it's own infrastructure. And Johnson himself doesn't quite fit the bill personality wise, despite some of the positioning you describe. Slippery though he is, he's not quite the maverick he thinks he is.
He has a narrow strategy focused on becoming leader of the conservative party (and hence prime minister) right now - if it looks bad to anyone outside the conservative party, it'll be forgotten by the next time it actually matters, IE at an actual general election, when he'll employ a different strategy.
Wilf
Slouching towards Billingham
The only connection between the 2 would be if he refused to debate Corbyn and the other party leaders at the next election (if the Tories were in the lead), creating a bit of a narrative. Fwiw, I think he'd beat Corbyn one to one, but might dodge a debate with the other party leaders. You could imagine Nicola Sturgeon landing a couple of blows about his character.
elbows
Well-Known Member
Whatever the calculation, it already involves having agreed to appear in Tuesdays debate, so I wouldnt over-egg the point about him avoiding debates.
I suspect part of the reason he didnt appear in the earlier debate is that his team want to avoid him being one face among many. The less opponents he faces in the debate, the less chance there is of him being overshadowed. Perhaps there are particular candidates he wants to avoid in debate, and the calculation is that they will be gone from the contest by Tuesday.
And yes, I'm sure they want to minimise the amount of time he spends in debates, especially certain formats, but they were aware they couldnt dodge them completely without creating a bad impression.
I suspect part of the reason he didnt appear in the earlier debate is that his team want to avoid him being one face among many. The less opponents he faces in the debate, the less chance there is of him being overshadowed. Perhaps there are particular candidates he wants to avoid in debate, and the calculation is that they will be gone from the contest by Tuesday.
And yes, I'm sure they want to minimise the amount of time he spends in debates, especially certain formats, but they were aware they couldnt dodge them completely without creating a bad impression.
Wilf
Slouching towards Billingham
What I haven't heard from him is a strategy to keep the parliamentary party together for whatever variety of no deal/managed no deal/new deal he has to go for by October. At some point he's going to have to get 95% plus of his MPs + DUP going through the same lobby, which is his problem. He has to construct some kind of 'hard-ish brexit unity strategy', which may not exist. He will be in a stronger position than May in some ways, but the numbers are no better. If anything, the more he tacks to the right, the more he brings some of the Labour rebels such as Caroline Flint back in line.
I take the point that he will focus on that after becoming leader, but there's no sign he's got something up his sleeve other than hoping to win a further gen election. That ultimately might be what happens, he calls an election and drags the voters back from Farage.
I take the point that he will focus on that after becoming leader, but there's no sign he's got something up his sleeve other than hoping to win a further gen election. That ultimately might be what happens, he calls an election and drags the voters back from Farage.
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
and that he's one after dinner speech which he recycles.
That's fair enough tbf.
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
yeh. but it undermines his reputation for quick thinking on his feet.
Brainaddict
slight system overdrive
Brexit is growing into a full on populist movement. The newspapers in this country are so far right as standard that I think it crept up without people noticing. Brexit will drag on for years and that will allow the movement to grow. But you don't need much infrastructure to get one guy in a key position. You might just manage it with a bit of luck and the other candidates being crap. Then he can stir things up properly with his good ole honest racism and xenophobia.
Brainaddict
slight system overdrive
He doesn't need to keep parliament together for a no-deal brexit. As people have begun to cotton onto, you can't vote away a deadline. Since a no-deal would create something close to a state of emergency, parliament would no doubt fall into line as the deadline approaches just to try to limit the damage. For the Tories that will mean imposing the kind of policies they always want to implement anyway.
Proper Tidy
Arsed
Really hope his strategy is win, go to polls, get a Tory majority so can bin off DUP and whip a Tory deal through. What could go wrong with calling an election
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