Who is going to win the 2018/2019 Tory Leadership election?

[kebabking]

Leadsom has been sticking the knife in - she's saying that all this 'close parliament and wait for the clock to tick down' stuff was explored long ago, the parliamentary legal bods kicked into touch after about half a seconds consideration and that everyone in cabinet - and the party outside, knew that it was a compete non-starter.

Raab seems to be getting labeled as the Mr Thickie candidate.

 

[brogdale]

Leadsom has been sticking the knife in - she's saying that all this 'close parliament and wait for the clock to tick down' stuff was explored long ago, the parliamentary legal bods kicked into touch after about half a seconds consideration and that everyone in cabinet - and the party outside, knew that it was a compete non-starter.

Raab seems to be getting labeled as the Mr Thickie candidate.

When mother loathsome calls you thick!

 

[Puddy_Tat]

 

[Celyn]

I bet Larry indulges in a bit of catnip on occasion.

 

[A380]

 

[Puddy_Tat]

I bet Larry indulges in a bit of catnip on occasion.

 

[Ming]

I bet Larry indulges in a bit of catnip on occasion.

Christ. They’re all at it (have we phase jumped into an alternative reality directed by Chris Morris?).

 

[brogdale]

View attachment 173666

Missing mother Loathsome's marijuana 'mistake'

 

[hash tag]

It's turning into a real Spartacus moment. Makes me ashamed to have done drugs.

 

[cupid_stunt]

The tabloids are having a field day with some of their headlines/photo captions, two I remember from the paper review - 'The race for high office' & 'The drug cabinet'.

 

[brogdale]

Showtime...ready for the cameras in 5, 4, 3, 2.....

 

[brogdale]

Class A warrior.

 

[Kaka Tim]

Who do people think are going to get to last round? I would guess the MP votes will coalesce around a Brexit candidate vs a "sensible" unity option.

I think Johnson or Raab - vs - Stewart or Hunt.
Johnson and Stewart can point to some evidence that they are popular amongst the wider electorate - so that could be the most likely two. But there always a strong possibility that Johnson will crash out as a result of him fucking up or shit being dug up on him.

 

[Badgers]

 

[isvicthere?]

rory stewart singing 'if you think I'm sexy', a dark thought

While attending an Iranian wedding!

 

[agricola]

Who do people think are going to get to last round? I would guess the MP votes will coalesce around a Brexit candidate vs a "sensible" unity option.

I think Johnson or Raab - vs - Stewart or Hunt.
Johnson and Stewart can point to some evidence that they are popular amongst the wider electorate - so that could be the most likely two. But there always a strong possibility that Johnson will crash out as a result of him fucking up or shit being dug up on him.

Johnson vs Hunt perhaps, and as you say some incredible scoop will do for Johnson when it is down to two. Stewart I think is positioning himself to be the "I told you so" candidate next time around. As for Raab, I'd be amazed if they ever let him get anywhere near a two horse race to be PM.

 

[Kaka Tim]

i think any dirt on johnson will be utilised before it gets to the final round. As for Raab - id say hes the strongest brexit candidate after johnson - so maybe you should prepare to be amazed!

 

[redsquirrel]

Who do people think are going to get to last round? I would guess the MP votes will coalesce around a Brexit candidate vs a "sensible" unity option.

I think Johnson or Raab - vs - Stewart or Hunt.

Absolutely no way Stewart will make the last two. At the moment he will be struggling to make it past the first round.

EDIT: Should have said struggling to get on the ballot for the first round.

 

[andysays]

In order to get to the final round where the members vote, any candidate is going to need declared support from their fellow MPs, including candidates who drop out or are eliminated along the way. I think a lot depends on who can demonstrate early on that they're able to do this.

Ruth Davidson backing Sajid Javid for Tory leader
Not saying this story in itself makes Javid a likely winner, but this is the sort of thing any serious contender needs to be getting soon if they're to get some momentum behind them.

I also think there's likely to be an "anyone but Boris" factor, and it will be interesting to see how that works out and who benefits from it.

 

[Kaka Tim]

Absolutely no way Stewart will make the last two. At the moment he will be struggling to make it past the first round.

EDIT: Should have said struggling to get on the ballot for the first round.

why? im not following it in intense detail - but he seems to have a lot of support from media, fresh face etc etc. so clearly being talked up.

 

[agricola]

i think any dirt on johnson will be utilised before it gets to the final round. As for Raab - id say hes the strongest brexit candidate after johnson - so maybe you should prepare to be amazed!

Perhaps, though the cynics among them would probably recognise that the membership will probably expect it to be a Johnson vs anti-Johnson candidate and so hold on to what they have until that happens, especially given what happened to Gove last time around when he helped deny the membership a vote.

Raab though is horrifying - a very clever man who has very little actual experience of even the type of work that they do, never mind actual work, and his record as an MP and a minister was hardly stellar even before he found intolerable something he'd helped negotiate. Running as he is on his record as an international lawyer is not going to impress that many people given that vote, nor that it was for a grand total of six years and ended thirteen years ago (the fact that the one example he cites is maritime security agreements post 9/11 should suggest the level at which he operated).

I know we live in a time where such creatures increasingly find themselves leading countries, but surely even the Tory Party would balk at putting in charge someone who would try and close Parliament then try and fight a general election afterwards.

 

[redsquirrel]

why? im not following it in intense detail - but he seems to have a lot of support from media, fresh face etc etc. so clearly being talked up.

Rules summarised here. You need 8 MPs to back your nomination to even put your hat in the ring

Announcing the rule changes, the party said candidates must declare at least eight nominations from fellow Conservative MPs by Monday in a move that will knock out some of the lesser known hopefuls.

Then for the ballots themselves

All candidates will then need the votes of 17 Conservative MPs – at least 5% of the parliamentary party – to stay in the first round ballot and at least 33 – or 10% of Tory MPs– to stay in the second round of voting.

At the moment Stewart has 5 nominations. He might manage to pick up some of Gyimah's (who will not get on the ballot) and get over the line but for all his support in the media his support within the party is very marginal.

 

[kebabking]

why? im not following it in intense detail - but he seems to have a lot of support from media, fresh face etc etc. so clearly being talked up.

The impression I get is that he makes the the 'average' Tory MP look more than a bit crap - even his drug taking is exotic - they think he's very capable as a minister, good at communicating, massively intelligent, and that basically they won't get a look in in a Stewart government because he regards them (correctly), as a bunch of inept no-marks who shouldn't be allowed near lace up shoes.

The others won't employ the really bright backbenchers, so it gives the more average backbenchers a chance at a ministerial slot....

 

[redsquirrel]

Gyimah, Stewart, Leadsom, McVey and Harper are all pretty much no-hopers, they are likely to either not get enough support to get onto the ballot or pull out tomorrow. Even if one or two of them do make it onto the ballot they will go in the first round.
Hancock will make the ballot but I can't see him progressing that far, maybe pulling out after round one and throwing his support behind another candidate.

The real contest is between Johnson, Gove, Hunt, Raab and Javid.

 

[tommers]

The real contest is between Johnson, Gove, Hunt, Raab and Javid.

Christ.

 

[Kaka Tim]

Rules summarised here. You need 8 MPs to back your nomination to even put your hat in the ring

Then for the ballots themselves


At the moment Stewart has 5 nominations. He might manage to pick up some of Gyimah's (who will not get on the ballot) and get over the line but for all his support in the media his support within the party is very marginal.

ah - ok. didn't realise he didnt even have the nominations yet. Johnson vs Hunt then.

 

[Benjy1992]

Sadly I think it will be Boris.

God help us all if it is.

 

[Johnny Doe]

Whoever wins, some dealers are going to clean up on the decision day

 

[Steel Icarus]

It's turning into a real Spartacus moment.

It certainly seems to be the official party line.

 

[gosub]

Whoever wins, some dealers are going to clean up on the decision day

Hoover up surely