us presidential election of 2024: implications for the uk

[Pickman's model]

so the election of 2024 could already be in the bag for the republicans given the preparations they've made, their activity in state legislatures and of course their plans. but what would a republican/fascist president mean for us here? I don't think it'll be the same as trump, I think it might actually impact much more on our daily lives should the us become somewhere elections are only held to reiterate control rather than allow Tweedledum to alternate with tweedledummer.

Just as Putin has funded far right groups it doesn't take much imagination to see American dollars being given to British fascists and radical right parties under various guises. I'm sure there's be lots of repercussions few of which occur to me but which I hope will come out in this thread. I read recently a fascist us could be a nasty beast for Canada to contend with - if for example democrat politicians (or anarchists) fled there and Washington demanded their return or extradition. What'd happen if Ottawa said no? Although 3000 miles from the us we all know how much stock labour and Tory politicians put in the 'special relationship'. Don't know or like to guess if they'd be plucky heroes standing up to an overweening USA or if they'd roll over and hope for a strike from the president instead of a kick in the belly

 

[Smangus]

Follow the money.

 

[platinumsage]

Although 3000 miles from the us we

It's only 2575 miles from Fermanagh to Hamlin, ME. Not sure which "we" you have in mind.

 

[Pickman's model]

It's only 2575 miles from Fermanagh to Hamlin, ME. Not sure which "we" you have in mind.

It's a pity you can't aim your forensic skills towards the actual crux of the matter at hand but only find yourself able to post about peripheral and indeed trivial details

 

[hitmouse]

I think it seems a bit premature to hand the 2024 election to a republican/fascist already, it seems to assume that no-one else is making preparations and plans? A lot can happen in three years.

 

[Pickman's model]

I think it seems a bit premature to hand the 2024 election to a republican/fascist already, it seems to assume that no-one else is making preparations and plans? A lot can happen in three years.

Word 6 of the op 'could' indicates the whole thing is still up for grabs. But I for one see precious little being done by the democratic party to foil the republicans' machinations

 

[8ball]

The Republicans giving money to UK fascist groups isn't something that would occur to me.
I'd expect them to most want to stay tight with the Tories.

 

[YouSir]

The Republicans giving money to UK fascist groups isn't something that would occur to me.
I'd expect them to most want to stay tight with the Tories.

Republicans themselves don't need to do it, their backers have been throwing cash at the UK Far Right for years anyway. And the Tories have been happy to indulge most of the shit that produces.

If Trump wins I doubt it'll make a massive difference here. Johnson and Farage have had similar acts and their time is running out, establishment Right here want a duller version now with a handful of headbangers to placate the new base. Which we already have a cabinet full of. Not that that's good, just don't think it'll be as bad as the US.

 

[toblerone3]

I think for all its twitching Trump is a busted flush.

 

[bluescreen]

I think for all its twitching Trump is a busted flush.

Reason being?

 

[toblerone3]

He has lied and blatantly broken the law so many times. How can this carry on? When do the legal roosters come home to roost.

 

[YouSir]

He has lied and blatantly broken the law so many times. How can this carry on? When do the legal roosters come home to roost.

Has carried on for years now and they don't.

 

[toblerone3]

If the law is not upheld then eventually the law of land ownership falls and that is extremely threatening to the capitalist class in the US.

 

[YouSir]

If the law is not upheld then eventually the law of land ownership falls and that is extremely threatening to the capitalist class in the US.

The law has always been selectively upheld, especially in favour of the Capitalist class. They couldn't care less about his transgressions, same as they don't care about their own.

 

[toblerone3]

The law has always been selectively upheld, especially in favour of the Capitalist class. They couldn't care less about his transgressions, same as they don't care about their own.

They do care about their "property" and are not averse to siding with the Democrats if they think the Republican path is too legally dodgy.

 

[Humberto]

Unless there is a concerted effort (presumably requiring heavy involvement from the Dem establishment) to expose Trump's lies and manipulation, I think it would a Trump candidacy? Or take your pick from an ugly bunch?

It ought to be pretty straightforward: tell the truth and expose the baddies. Offer something reasonable and straight up. Anyway, to attempt to address the OP; I agree there is a realistic likelihood of such a circumstance so it is a good idea to raise it: forewarned is forearmed.

My take - keep building, keep trying. Avoid the trap of giving up. They are gobshites after all. And there's no alternative.

But that doesn't actually address the OP does it? OK. The implications for the UK would be (as citizens concerned about a more powerful ally becoming fascist), we would need to nail down our rights, freedoms and interests, fast! Try and clear out any serious threat to that. Which brings me to the point that there's already a raft of legislation possibly coming this year that would seriously undermine our civil rights. Johnson and Trump have similarities.

We need scrutiny; recognising where it is important to seek clarity and not curry favour: particularly if it seems 'popular', 'balanced'. e.g. Blair's knighthood, the Colston 4 aqcuittal and the following Tory/Tory media backlash. I think the relevance is that times are changing. Nevertheless, men like Colston and Blair profited from, showed no mercy to, and burnished their stature by shedding innocent blood for their own devices (career/profit/esteem). Bribe takers. Latter day Herods.

So, if its war (of some description) they bring us, I refuse to be scared of these mice.

 

[YouSir]

They do care about their "property" and are not averse to siding with the Democrats if they think the Republican path is too legally dodgy.

How likely do you think it is that Trump will start expropriating the property of the US ruling class? Because I'm willing to bet they're not losing sleep over the prospect. Capital will be split, no doubt, both sides will work for them either way but the threat of undermined property laws effecting them won't be an issue.

 

[toblerone3]

How likely do you think it is that Trump will

How likely do you think it is that Trump will start expropriating the property of the US ruling class? Because I'm willing to bet they're not losing sleep over the prospect. Capital will be split, no doubt, both sides will work for them either way but the threat of undermined property laws effecting them won't be an issue.

I think it will be an issue. What is your reasoning for thinking it will not be an issue?

 

[YouSir]

I think it will be an issue. What is your reasoning for thinking it will not be an issue?

What's yours for thinking it will? There's no evidence at all of him posing a threat to the private property rights of the Capitalist class. Historically the Far Right generally hasn't, they're more than happy to work with Capital and Capital is more than happy to work with them.

 

[toblerone3]

Going with Trump is a risky strategy and is a costly risk that the capitalist class does not need to take. It is not in their interests.

 

[YouSir]

Going with Trump is a risky strategy and is a costly risk that the capitalist class does not need to take. It is not in their interests.

Why isn't it? Capital can have conflicting interests within itself but last time he gutted the EPA and environmental standards, delivered a major corporate tax cut and more or less venerated the wealthy. He made (some of) them an inordinate amount of money.

 

[toblerone3]

Why isn't it? Capital can have conflicting interests within itself but last time he gutted the EPA and environmental standards, delivered a major corporate tax cut and more or less venerated the wealthy. He made (some of) them an inordinate amount of money.

A few short term speculators might be persuaded but he the big money long term investors wont go with this.

 

[bluescreen]

A few short term speculators might be persuaded but he the big money long term investors wont go with this.

What do you think they will go with instead? Seeing as how there are a lot of armed people and the army who might disagree.

 

[Ming]

Follow the money.

Always. Brexit and Trump.

Robert Mercer - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[Smokeandsteam]

Going with Trump is a risky strategy and is a costly risk that the capitalist class does not need to take. It is not in their interests.

That’s true. It’s also the case that Biden has continued much of Trump’s approach: isolationism, rescue-repair-recovery, domestic demand priming etc at the behest of significant layers of capital. Elite Big Tech will also oppose Trump.

But do not underestimate the effect that a strengthening popular current forming behind Trump could have in changing minds. Put another way: there was always the glaring reality that the ‘defeat’ of populism by elite liberalism seeking to reimpose its authority would only have the effect of creating a greater populist surge next time around.

Whilst Biden’s infrastructure bill has been ‘more radical’ than his past suggested he might be there is also the question of how much of it will survive and also cut through in, for example the ‘rust belt’ states that will be critical to both sides. At present I would argue it isn’t cutting through at all.

I’d argue that at this point anyone ruling out Trump 2024 is overlooking some fairly big markers and trends.

 

[redsquirrel]

The Republicans giving money to UK fascist groups isn't something that would occur to me.
I'd expect them to most want to stay tight with the Tories.

The Obama Democrats were closer to the Tories than the LP.

Admittedly the current Democrats and current Tories are different from 2010-2016 but it would be a mistake just to see Republicans <-> Tories. Trump was always hugely unpopular in the UK and while there will be some Tories happy to work with the Republicans, others won't be interested in getting tarred with consorting with lunatics.

Yes populism is more present in the Tory party than 5-10 years ago but there is still a big gap between the Tories and the Republicans.

 

[Kevbad the Bad]

I think it's still way too early to guess, with any reasonable chance of success. The impact of the pandemic, indeed the course of the pandemic, is unknown. It could end up a lot worse than it is now, or soon be over or, more likely, somewhere in between. Economic, social, environmental and political consequences potentially enormous and of global effect. Leading US politicians could still fall foul of the virus. I may get back to this question towards the end of next year, if we're all still here.

 

[8ball]

The Obama Democrats were closer to the Tories than the LP.

Admittedly the current Democrats and current Tories are different from 2010-2016 but it would be a mistake just to see Republicans <-> Tories. Trump was always hugely unpopular in the UK and while there will be some Tories happy to work with the Republicans, others won't be interested in getting tarred with consorting with lunatics.

Yes populism is more present in the Tory party than 5-10 years ago but there is still a big gap between the Tories and the Republicans.

I think you misunderstood, or maybe took me to be saying something more complicated than I was really saying.
I wasn’t talking about Labour or the Democrats. Just that it seemed to me that Republicans (if they got in in 2024 in iffy circumstances), would be more interested in their relationship with Boris Johnson than their relationship with eg. Tommy Robinson.

 

[redsquirrel]

I'm disagreeing with your contention that the Republicans are particularly "tight" with the Tories. That has not been true for some time.

Which does not mean that the Republican Party is suddenly going to make massive overtures to the hard right. Nor that whatever PM and President there is they won't try to build some sort of relationship.

 

[Sasaferrato]

If the law is not upheld then eventually the law of land ownership falls and that is extremely threatening to the capitalist class in the US.

I suspect that if law did break down, the gated communities would have serious defence on site.