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Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-25

sleaterkinney said:
You could try ex PM Medvedev, the Baltics belong to Russia.

uk.news.yahoo.com

Ex Russian PM Dmitry Medvedev claims Baltic countries belong to Russia

The former Russian Prime Minister referred to the three Baltic states as "our" on Tuesday, adding Poland was "temporarily occupied".
uk.news.yahoo.com uk.news.yahoo.com
Click to expand...
I see you can't defend this useless article which ignores dm is the former president of Russia and pm from 2012 to 2020. Your silence on this matter should be continued more generally on the boards.
 
Pickman's model said:
I see you can't defend this useless article which ignores dm is the former president of Russia and pm from 2012 to 2020. Your silence on this matter should be continued more generally on the boards.
Click to expand...
It's true that it's a shit article, but it's hard to argue that Medvedev didn't call them "our Baltic provinces" when it's still up on his own Twitter feed. Which is the essential fact of the article and is correct. The fact that it seems to have been written by a high schooler on work experience and never even got sniffed at by an editor is on Euronews and only really essential in a thread on journalism. They stated a fact and gave a source for it is enough for this thread.
 
Leaving aside weird pissing contest call outs. Back to the war.

metro.co.uk

Putin loses top colonel after missile strike 'on medal ceremony' kills 19

Other high ranking officers were also wounded in the attack.
metro.co.uk metro.co.uk


Vladimir Putin has suffered a major blow after losing a top colonel following a missile strike during a medal ceremony, according to reports.


The hit which also killed 19 troops and injured another 12 wiped out Colonel Roman Kozhukhov in occupied Donetsk in Ukraine.


Another high ranking officer Colonel Mikhail Gudkov was wounded as was Major Alexander Abilov.


Telegram channel Dosye Shpiona said: ‘The command was conducting a formation in honour of awarding individual servicemen of the brigade who distinguished themselves in combat.


‘The strike was carried out by two HIMARS missiles.’


Over the past five weeks there has been five major strikes on gatherings of Russian troops at medal ceremonies.


There were 24 people killed at Vostochny military range in Donetsk on January 25.


On February 4, 28 servicemen from Russia were killed in a missile strike at the Adriatic restaurant ‘where the Russian military were dining’.
Click to expand...
 
Chz said:
It's true that it's a shit article, but it's hard to argue that Medvedev didn't call them "our Baltic provinces" when it's still up on his own Twitter feed. Which is the essential fact of the article and is correct. The fact that it seems to have been written by a high schooler on work experience and never even got sniffed at by an editor is on Euronews and only really essential in a thread on journalism. They stated a fact and gave a source for it is enough for this thread.
Click to expand...
The two core things about that article are that a Russian said something and its important - newsworthy - because he was Russian pm during gwb's first term. sleaterkinney has no idea who medvedev is. And for me, the only link in that article is to eurobarometer. Given the guff the apparently Cambridge educated askew says about medvedev I wouldn't trust a thing there that's not linked to. And even if medvedev did say it, it takes more than one person to say something like 'we're going to reincorporate the baltic states and Poland into russia' on twitter to give it substance.

On a broader point, there's been a great number of posts on this thread about how you can't trust a word the russians say. But now suddenly sleaterkinney finds an honest Russian whose word can be relied upon. You can't have it both ways, that they're utterly dishonest while being truthful.
 
Pickman's model said:
And even if medvedev did say it, it takes more than one person to say something like 'we're going to reincorporate the baltic states and Poland into russia' on twitter to give it substance.
Click to expand...
Would you calmly dismiss Donald Trump threatening to take back Cuba as a US protectorate because, hey, he's just one guy and he's not even President any more? He's probably considerably more bonkers than Medvedev, but it would have substance.

Interpretation of what Russia and individual Russians say to the press (or on Twitter) is an art form of sorts. While I'm not "distrust everything they say", I think it's accurate that most statements have been well thought out ahead of time and the true meaning is underneath what they appear to say on the surface. Russian leadership is not prone to Trumpian blurting out the first thought that rattles out of the slot machine in their head. You can probably spend days interpreting what they really mean in any statement for foreign consumption. (Internal statements are on another level entirely)
 
WouldBe said:
Yet Russia claimed it wasn't going to invade Ukraine. :hmm:
Click to expand...


Special military operation due to last 3 days has so far lasted 2 years and involved a lot of force.

www.aljazeera.com

‘No other option’: Excerpts of Putin’s speech declaring war

Before launching the biggest attack by one state against another in Europe since World War II, Putin made an address.
www.aljazeera.com www.aljazeera.com

“Its goal is to protect people who have been subjected to abuse and genocide by the regime in Kyiv for eight years. And for this we will pursue the demilitarisation and denazification of Ukraine, as well as bringing to justice those who committed numerous bloody crimes against civilians, including citizens of the Russian Federation.


“Our plans do not include the occupation of Ukrainian territories. We are not going to impose anything on anyone by force. At the same time, we hear that recently in the West there is talk that the documents signed by the Soviet totalitarian regime, securing the outcome of World War II, should no longer be upheld. Well, what is the answer to this?
Click to expand...


In terms of ranting about Eastern Europe, theres also this guy who has been promoted several times.

In an interview with Moscow's state-run Russia-1, Andrey Mordvichev said that he believes Vladimir Putin's war will last quite a long time and expand in the future.


Hindustan Times - your fastest source for breaking news! Read now.

"I think there's still plenty of time to spend. It is pointless to talk about a specified period. If we are talking about Eastern Europe, which we will have to, of course then it will be longer," the general said.


"Ukraine is only a stepping stone?" the interviewer then asked

"Yes, absolutely. It is only the beginning," he responded adding that the war “will not stop here.”
Click to expand...


If we're talking about a better source you can have Reuters for Medvedev I guess?


MOSCOW, Nov 2 (Reuters) - A top ally of President Vladimir Putin warned Poland on Thursday that the NATO member state was now considered a "dangerous enemy" by Russia and could end up losing its statehood if it continued on its current course.
Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, now deputy chairman of Russia's Security Council, made the comments in an 8,000-word article on Russian-Polish relations, saying Moscow now had a "dangerous enemy" in Poland.

"We will treat it (Poland) precisely as a historical enemy," Medvedev said. "If there is no hope for reconciliation with the enemy, Russia should have only one and a very tough attitude regarding its fate."
"History has more than once delivered a merciless verdict to the presumptuous Poles: no matter how ambitious the revanchist plans may be, their collapse could lead to the death of Polish statehood in its entirety."
Click to expand...



Now I don't believe Russia is going to invade Poland or any NATO countries but do think Putin is interested in running as much of the former Soviet Block as a franchise of Russia as possible and keen to destabilise as much of Europe as he can get away with by fair means or foul. He's a cunt.
 
Chz said:
Would you calmly dismiss Donald Trump threatening to take back Cuba as a US protectorate because, hey, he's just one guy and he's not even President any more? He's probably considerably more bonkers than Medvedev, but it would have substance.

Interpretation of what Russia and individual Russians say to the press (or on Twitter) is an art form of sorts. While I'm not "distrust everything they say", I think it's accurate that most statements have been well thought out ahead of time and the true meaning is underneath what they appear to say on the surface. Russian leadership is not prone to Trumpian blurting out the first thought that rattles out of the slot machine in their head. You can probably spend days interpreting what they really mean in any statement for foreign consumption. (Internal statements are on another level entirely)
Click to expand...
Have you any evidence dm seeks another term as President?
 
Pickman's model said:
The two core things about that article are that a Russian said something and its important - newsworthy - because he was Russian pm during gwb's first term. sleaterkinney has no idea who medvedev is. And for me, the only link in that article is to eurobarometer. Given the guff the apparently Cambridge educated askew says about medvedev I wouldn't trust a thing there that's not linked to. And even if medvedev did say it, it takes more than one person to say something like 'we're going to reincorporate the baltic states and Poland into russia' on twitter to give it substance.

On a broader point, there's been a great number of posts on this thread about how you can't trust a word the russians say. But now suddenly sleaterkinney finds an honest Russian whose word can be relied upon. You can't have it both ways, that they're utterly dishonest while being truthful.
Click to expand...
I don't speak Russian, but it seems that intelligence agencies with Russian speakers and academics with expertise on Russia and people in Eastern Europe who are familiar with Russia take it very seriously. These aren't just the odd cases of someone in the Russian establishment speaking out of turn, Russian media is endlessly sabre rattling over the Baltics.

I wonder why you are so confident that he isn't interested in reclaiming former Soviet possessions and returning Russia to a hegemonic role in Eastern Europe. Given what we know about Putin it would be odd for him not to care about this. It certainly makes more sense than the invasion of Ukraine being motivated by a passionate hatred of Nazis.
 
Rimbaud said:
I don't speak Russian, but it seems that intelligence agencies with Russian speakers and academics with expertise on Russia and people in Eastern Europe who are familiar with Russia take it very seriously. These aren't just the odd cases of someone in the Russian establishment speaking out of turn, Russian media is endlessly sabre rattling over the Baltics.

I wonder why you are so confident that he isn't interested in reclaiming former Soviet possessions and returning Russia to a hegemonic role in Eastern Europe. Given what we know about Putin it would be odd for him not to care about this. It certainly makes more sense than the invasion of Ukraine being motivated by a passionate hatred of Nazis.
Click to expand...
Come back when you know what you're talking about - your first four words show how unfamiliar you are with the matter under discussion. And your second post bears no relation to anything I've said.
 
Pickman's model said:
No. But that's utterly irrelevant for a tweet written in english, wouldn't you agree?
Click to expand...
No it isn't, because you said it was an isolated comment by an individual which you can't possibly know if you don't have access to Russian language world. It is my understanding from those who can speak Russian that it reflects a very comment sentiment within the Russian establishment and society more generally.
 
Rimbaud said:
No it isn't, because you said it was an isolated comment by an individual which you can't possibly know if you don't have access to Russian language world. It is my understanding from those who can speak Russian that it reflects a very comment sentiment within the Russian establishment and society more generally.
Click to expand...
if you have evidence beyond millions of pms of support pls share it
 
sleaterkinney said:
You could try ex PM Medvedev, the Baltics belong to Russia.

uk.news.yahoo.com

Ex Russian PM Dmitry Medvedev claims Baltic countries belong to Russia

The former Russian Prime Minister referred to the three Baltic states as "our" on Tuesday, adding Poland was "temporarily occupied".
uk.news.yahoo.com uk.news.yahoo.com
Click to expand...


He's also Ex President Medvedev. But he's now Marginalised Med, and seeking attention from those to the right of Putin. He's got so little to do, I'm surprised he doesn't post here.
 
I don't know why you're wrapping yourself around this axle Pickman's model, but it's frankly bizarre - the official, and semi-official Russian position that the Baltic states 'belong to Russia's has been clear, and repeated endlessly for the last decade.

The exact nature of the model of control varies from speaker to speaker, for some it's theoretically independent states operating within the Russian sphere of influence, for others it's direct physical control with Talin being as Russian as St Petersburg, with as many versions in between as there are talking about it - but the overarching principle is that these states belong to Russia.

I refuse to believe you don't know this, because you're an intelligent chap with a bit of intellectual curiosity - so I can only surmise you've gone down a rabbit hole of contrariness. Stop - it's making you look a fool, and you aren't one.

ATB.
 
Edited.
I don't really want to argue this any more. It gets in the way of what little useful content we have. Which is not to knock the posters - there's precious little to discuss after 2 years and people get bored.
 
Last edited:
It's very good to see people trying to do things for sleaterkinney. But even if elements of the Russian elites and indeed wider russian population believe the baltic states should be under the gentle guidance of Russia or part of the Russian federation, the fact is that trying to incorporate them by force would likely mean war with nato. There has been much thought given to resistance movements in eg Estonia in the aftermath of a Russian invasion - sure I've linked once pr twice to a jsou publication emanating from a conference held at tartu university 11 or 12 years ago. But despite whatever Russia wants to do with the baltic states, even if some senior figures wish to see Poland brought under at least Russian influence again, the simple fact of the matter is that the great cost in men, materiel and money of the foray into Ukraine means that it will be quite some time before the russians can muster the wherewithal to seek a contest with but the European nato countries on the battlefield. The reconstitution of the Russian army, its re-equipping, its retraining, the development of reserves of ammunition, shells and missiles, won't happen overnight. And the last two years' war in Ukraine make plain many of the shortcomings of the Russian army when faced by an intelligent and determined foe. I don't believe that the Russian forces will be in a position to secure territory for putin or any other president outside Ukraine for some years. For me statements to the contrary are overblown and shrill fear mongering.
 
Chz said:
Edited.
I don't really want to argue this any more. It gets in the way of what little useful content we have. Which is not to knock the posters - there's precious little to discuss after 2 years and people get bored.
Click to expand...
Not really, this is just the latest one of the conquests he's engaged in. The idea he would stop with Ukraine is ludicrous. Did he stop after Crimea?. Moldova would be next, maybe then the Baltics. Who would stop him?
 
sleaterkinney said:
Not really, this is just the latest one of the conquests he's engaged in. The idea he would stop with Ukraine is ludicrous. Did he stop after Crimea?. Moldova would be next, maybe then the Baltics. Who would stop him?
Click to expand...
why is the idea he would not stop with ukraine ludicrous? and could you lay out your reasons without any askew articles pls
 
Pickman's model said:
...I don't believe that the Russian forces will be in a position to secure territory for putin or any other president outside Ukraine for some years. For me statements to the contrary are overblown and shrill fear mongering.
Click to expand...
I wish I was so sanguine.

Russia has displayed it's characteristic ability to repopulate it's Army, and rearm itself. It hasn't been able to do that perfectly - ages of conscription, prisons emptied into the ranks, and equipment that doesn't match that issued to the invading army of 2022 - but it has been able to do something that's good enough when based on an acceptance of frankly astonishing casualty rates.

Russia's ability to conduct a high-end, manoeuvre warfare victory has certainly been massively (almost completely?) reduced in the way you describe - but what the recent Russian campaigns have shown is that it able/willing to conduct sustained offensive operations using tactics that wouldn't be out of place on the Somme, where they grind out a result using mass casualties as the tarmac of the road of victory.

Russia's ability to regenerate probably isn't infinite, but time and again they surprise/dismay with their ability to do so - personally I think it unwise to assume they will only be able to so so in X period to Y degree, or that be because they might not be able to achieve Z objective on a quick, clean way, they won't bother.

I'd not be remotely surprised if they have another pop at Transnistria (which was obviously in the original war plan) over the summer/autumn, dependent on how the summer offensive season goes for both sides, and if Trump wins in the US, then yes - I think they'll have a pop at the Baltic states.

Not necessarily successfully, but if your cities have been levelled and half your population displaced, then any defeat you inflict on the enemy looks a bit tarnished.
 
kebabking said:
Broadly - and hypothetically, of course - the kind of things you'd be doing would be sending independent reporting back to your government (Ukraine is the UK's friend, but they are interested in their best interests, not ours...), liaison for stuff like intelligence gathering, help with analysis from intelligence gathering, and help with training for technical stuff like Ground Target Designators.

Beware of reading too much into it though - 'Special Forces in Ukraine' might simply mean the protection teams at the embassy.
Click to expand...
www.telegraph.co.uk

British soldiers helping fire Ukrainian missiles, Olaf Scholz reveals

German chancellor criticised for ‘flagrant abuse of intelligence’ that could endanger UK personnel on the ground and help the Russians
www.telegraph.co.uk www.telegraph.co.uk
 
Make of it what you will , here's a piece in Ukraine Pravda about the WSJ's article on the negotiation of 2022

www.pravda.com.ua

WSJ analyses Putinâs demands for peace from 2022: turn Ukraine into neutral state

The Wall Street Journal has analysed the draft version of the peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia of 15 April 2022, believing that the Kremlinâs goals have not changed much in two years and that it would again prefer to turn Ukraine into a neutral and vulnerable state in the event of...
www.pravda.com.ua www.pravda.com.ua
 
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