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Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-25

The39thStep said:
Nope , nor would I trust any head of state tbh or many in authority. I've negotiated a number of deals with people ie employers and agencies that have been broken at some point or renegotiated.
You enter into negotiations to see what you can get out of the other party or what you have to give to the other party at that time. In some cases everyone knows the final position was a fudge and that the issue will come back up again at some point. The fact that there was some agreement during discussions between Ukraine and Russia indicates that both parties were engaged in negotiation to see if or not a deal could be reached. This is pretty explicit both in the article I posted and the interview with one of Zelensky's negotiation team. Why exactly it wasn't reached we will probably never really know. Some have argued that it was Bucha others the intervention of the West especially Johnson promising this this and this. I think the latter was thought to be the better offer by Ukraine .
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You’ve done some negotiations yourself have you?.

Did it involve one party doing a massive invasion of a country?.
 
I would say that to claim that Russia and Ukraine were on the cusp of a peaceful deal is a bit like suggesting that Taylor Swift and I are on the cusp of getting shacked up because we agree that the sky is blue and grass is green.

On the big stuff - Ukraine's sovereignty, the right to sign security agreements with who it likes, the independence of Ukraines political system, the presence of Russian forces on 'Ukrainian' territory - they were as far apart as Taylor Swift and I on the whole shagging thing.

Johnson - and this is amazing, but still true - refused on a point of principle to be party to a treaty that a) he believed Russia would break, and b) that the UK would be unable to provide the security guarantee because the treaty specifically forbade any party other than Russia to have forces on Ukrainian territory.

He told Zelensky that the UK would support Ukraine with financial aid, munitions, training and intelligence - but not with becoming party to the war - if Ukraine chose to continue to fight, but Ukraine wasn't minded to accept the broad thrust of the treaty in the first place.

The US had similar views, as did the French.
 
kebabking said:
I would say that to claim that Russia and Ukraine were on the cusp of a peaceful deal is a bit like suggesting that Taylor Swift and I are on the cusp of getting shacked up because we agree that the sky is blue and grass is green.

On the big stuff - Ukraine's sovereignty, the right to sign security agreements with who it likes, the independence of Ukraines political system, the presence of Russian forces on 'Ukrainian' territory - they were as far apart as Taylor Swift and I on the whole shagging thing.

Johnson - and this is amazing, but still true - refused on a point of principle to be party to a treaty that a) he believed Russia would break, and b) that the UK would be unable to provide the security guarantee because the treaty specifically forbade any party other than Russia to have forces on Ukrainian territory.

He told Zelensky that the UK would support Ukraine with financial aid, munitions, training and intelligence - but not with becoming party to the war - if Ukraine chose to continue to fight, but Ukraine wasn't minded to accept the broad thrust of the treaty in the first place.

The US had similar views, as did the French.
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It’s a bit like the Munich agreement only this version the allies stumped up the readies and said fucking chinny reckon your just going to be happy with a bit of Czechoslovakia we’re sending them guns.


Russia has broken every agreement so far and made it clear it considers the former Soviet territories its territory and keeps fucking around in other countries.
 
ska invita said:
Owen Jones has done the sums - the US aid drop amounts to 1 meal for 1.7% of the Gazan population
apnews.com

US military aircraft airdrop thousands of meals into Gaza in emergency humanitarian aid operation

US military C-130 cargo planes have airdropped food and aid in pallets over Gaza. It's the opening stage of an emergency humanitarian assistance authorized by President Joe Biden after more than 100 Palestinians who had surged to pull goods off an aid convoy were killed during a chaotic encounter wi
apnews.com apnews.com
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wrong thread I think.
kebabking said:
I would say that to claim that Russia and Ukraine were on the cusp of a peaceful deal is a bit like suggesting that Taylor Swift and I are on the cusp of getting shacked up because we agree that the sky is blue and grass is green.

On the big stuff - Ukraine's sovereignty, the right to sign security agreements with who it likes, the independence of Ukraines political system, the presence of Russian forces on 'Ukrainian' territory - they were as far apart as Taylor Swift and I on the whole shagging thing.

Johnson - and this is amazing, but still true - refused on a point of principle to be party to a treaty that a) he believed Russia would break, and b) that the UK would be unable to provide the security guarantee because the treaty specifically forbade any party other than Russia to have forces on Ukrainian territory.

He told Zelensky that the UK would support Ukraine with financial aid, munitions, training and intelligence - but not with becoming party to the war - if Ukraine chose to continue to fight, but Ukraine wasn't minded to accept the broad thrust of the treaty in the first place.

The US had similar views, as did the French.
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A couple of tips moving forward..

1. Getting her lawyers to inital a multiple agreement isn't exactly foreplay

2. Don't park any tanks on her lawn
 
discokermit said:
does anyone watch the willy oam channel on youtube? he is an ozzy who served in afghanistan and is a civilian now. he is pro ukraine, pro nato but is fairly unbiased. he was in ukraine at the beginning and has lots of contacts over there fighting. does regular interviews which are worth checking out. https://www.youtube.com/@willyOAM
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First thing that comes up on that channel is a puff-piece interview with an IDF special forces guy.

If that's what 'unbiased' looks like, you can fucking keep it thanks.
 
kebabking said:
I would say that to claim that Russia and Ukraine were on the cusp of a peaceful deal is a bit like suggesting that Taylor Swift and I are on the cusp of getting shacked up because we agree that the sky is blue and grass is green.

On the big stuff - Ukraine's sovereignty, the right to sign security agreements with who it likes, the independence of Ukraines political system, the presence of Russian forces on 'Ukrainian' territory - they were as far apart as Taylor Swift and I on the whole shagging thing.

Johnson - and this is amazing, but still true - refused on a point of principle to be party to a treaty that a) he believed Russia would break, and b) that the UK would be unable to provide the security guarantee because the treaty specifically forbade any party other than Russia to have forces on Ukrainian territory.

He told Zelensky that the UK would support Ukraine with financial aid, munitions, training and intelligence - but not with becoming party to the war - if Ukraine chose to continue to fight, but Ukraine wasn't minded to accept the broad thrust of the treaty in the first place.

The US had similar views, as did the French.
Click to expand...

I'm not clear on here that anyone has said that they were on the cusp of a peaceful deal although I wish you all the best with your courtship of Taylor Smith. However, I suspect even Taylor Smith would find your claim that Johnson refused anything on a point of principle unsettling and speculative, to say the least.

Arakhamiia, who led the Ukrainian delegation at aborted peace talks in both venues said the key issue was neutrality and has stated in interviews that :
"They really hoped almost to the last moment that they would force us to sign such an agreement so that we would take neutrality. It was the most important thing for them. They were prepared to end the war if we agreed to, – as Finland once did, – neutrality, and committed that we would not join NATO. In fact, this was the key point. Everything else was simply rhetoric and political ‘seasoning’ about denazification, the Russian-speaking population and blah-blah-blah."
 
The39thStep said:
I'm not clear on here that anyone has said that they were on the cusp of a peaceful deal although I wish you all the best with your courtship of Taylor Smith. However, I suspect even Taylor Smith would find your claim that Johnson refused anything on a point of principle unsettling and speculative, to say the least.

Arakhamiia, who led the Ukrainian delegation at aborted peace talks in both venues said the key issue was neutrality and has stated in interviews that :
"They really hoped almost to the last moment that they would force us to sign such an agreement so that we would take neutrality. It was the most important thing for them. They were prepared to end the war if we agreed to, – as Finland once did, – neutrality, and committed that we would not join NATO. In fact, this was the key point. Everything else was simply rhetoric and political ‘seasoning’ about denazification, the Russian-speaking population and blah-blah-blah."
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They wanted to force them to sign an agreement. He also said, and you left out, that there was no trust of them on the Ukrainian side.

What were the points they did agree on that you mentioned?.
 
sleaterkinney said:
They wanted to force them to sign an agreement. He also said, and you left out, that there was no trust of them on the Ukrainian side.

What were the points they did agree on that you mentioned?.
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In answer to your first point:
Yes, the quote I put in from Arakhamia ( interviewed in Nov 2023) clearly says that he felt that they thought they could force them to sign an agreement . I replied to an earlier question by saying that I wouldn't trust Putin so far from 'leaving it out' I actually concur with Arakhamia.

In fact according to Responsible Statecraft : "Arakhamia also said that Kyiv’s lack of trust in the Russian side to fulfill its end of the bargain meant that the peace deal “could only be done if there were security guarantees” — suggesting, obliquely, that negotiations could have borne fruit had they received the backing and involvement of NATO states."

Which flows into me giving you some of the sources that inform my belief that there was some understanding of what an agreement might look like.

According to Zelensky in Ukraine Pravda: "The peace treaty with Russia could comprise two separate documents. One of them should deal with security guarantees for Ukraine, and the other directly with its relationship with the Russian Federation." April 2022

According to Fiona Hill and Angela Stent wrote in National Affairs “Russian and Ukrainian negotiators appeared to have tentatively agreed on the outlines of a negotiated interim settlement,”
“Russia would withdraw to its position on February 23, when it controlled part of the Donbas region and all of Crimea, and in exchange, Ukraine would promise not to seek NATO membership and instead receive security guarantees from a number of countries.” August 2022
 
ska invita said:
Someone do that NATO made them do it joke and get the thread back on course please
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Yeh cos obviously the russians are either mad or bad or likely both and ought to have welcomed an anti-russian alliance bowling up to its borders and into central Asia. How droll it all is

It's like you think nato is a jolly dancing ensemble or something and not an alliance which has over the past 29 years been involved in wars of choice on at least 3 continents killing a vast number of people
 
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Pickman's model said:
Yeh cos obviously the russians are either mad or bad or likely both and ought to have welcomed an anti-russian alliance bowling up to its borders and into central Asia. How droll it all is

It's like you think nato is a jolly dancing ensemble or something and not an alliance which has over the past 29 years been involved in wars of choice on at least 3 continents killing a vast number of people
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the cia had a dozen bases along the border for the last ten years, according to th nyt, https://web.archive.org/web/2024030...rope/cia-ukraine-intelligence-russia-war.html
 
TopCat said:
Moderation on this thread isn’t even handed.
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I issued a warning because I decided that his abuse had crossed the line and the warning would send out a message to others to wind it in.

But if you're going to insist that there's been some terrible moderation in this thread feel free to start a thread in the feedback with plenty of examples.
 
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