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Ukip - why are they gaining support?

I reckon they'll make some gains this time, in contrast to 2011 and 2012 where they didn't have any gains (overall). I don't think they'll take a lot of seats but they could have quite a lot of second/third places

Having a quick glance through that list of councils where elections are happening you'd think theres a few areas where they stand to do well. What could be interesting if in the SE there's a repeat of the Eastleigh by-election with UKIP taking votes of the Tories and letting the yellow scum in.
 
I reckon they'll make some gains this time, in contrast to 2011 and 2012 where they didn't have any gains (overall). I don't think they'll take a lot of seats but they could have quite a lot of second/third places

Having a quick glance through that list of councils where elections are happening you'd think theres a few areas where they stand to do well. What could be interesting if in the SE there's a repeat of the Eastleigh by-election with UKIP taking votes of the Tories and letting the yellow scum in.

I'm not sure that the Tories will be too worried about the placings if, after analysis, the votes appear to mostly come from Lib-Dems and Tories making "protest votes". That could play out badly for them if, as is likely to happen, Cameron continues to disenchant and disenfranchise the backwoodsmen. I'm not sure that even winning more than a handful of seats would give UKIP any sort of political longevity, though, given that they'd have to enter coalition (formal or informal) with one wing of neoliberalism or t'other, which would immediately put the kybosh on some of their political proposals.
 
Interesting article but it conflates concern over immigration with racism. Notice that the current concern is immigration by Romanians - whites.

I agree Butcher's, he evidentlt hasn't read the article. There is an important principle here, that of those in the pay of the statye (like HNH) should not be campaigning in favour of their paymasters (the coalition), yet they evidently are.
 
It'll be an interesting one - worth discussing in more depth here

I don't think UKIP will be particularly well organised for these, they're not normally and in my view they will not have much impact in terms of votes taken from others or seats actually won.

agreed. Labour will also be recieving massive swings back to themselves in these elections where there is no clear alternative (i.e. maybe not in Scotland/ Wales/ etc). same with the Euros next year- UKIP are actually unlikely to come first as many are expecting.
 
Apparently some leftist/liberals in Rusholme managed get a UKIP poster about ending EU immigration taken down by clear channel

thing is, instead of a few thousand seeing, many thousands will do now with the resultant furore,

makes one wonder if they knew this would happen..




of course they fucking did...
 
This bloke claims to be a ukipper and a Stalinist...

https://twitter.com/KenBellUKIP


"Let's be honest, publicity like this we could not buy even if we tried. It is a mini Rotherham all over again, and looking at these mouthy madams who seem to be behind it I am reminded of just why I quit the Labour Party. Keeping my sarcasm in check when faced with some bird with a bra size larger than her IQ is not easy."


and uncouth and sexist as well, play them at their game contact the media about his comments
 
"Ken Bell@KenBellUKIP 28 Mar
A dating site rejected me. I failed the question: "What do you like the most in a woman?" It seems "my cock" is not an acceptable answer."

in your dreams, seen the moustache...

he thinks he is funny as well, always a bad sign of a flawed character...
 
From UKIP's manifesto on defence-

Restore the Royal Navy to its 2001 strength with three new aircraft carriers and nearly 70 other ships, at the same time guaranteeing the future of the Plymouth, Portsmouth and Rosyth bases

We can safely assume that three aircraft carriers and 70 ships aren't much good for defending the plains of central Europe if the Kremlin went mad. So what on earth do UKIP want with this massive expansion in naval power?

UKIP's main contention is that outside the EU they could negotiate better global deals with rising economic powers and the Commonwealth (which is merely a networking organisation). I can only assume that this naval power is their idea of leverage; British defence protection in exchange for preferential trade deals (because Johnny Foreigner is crap at that sort of thing compared to 'our boys').

In essence a 21st century rehash of the League of Empire Loyalists and Joseph Chamberlain's Imperial Federation.

Unless they want to sail these ships to the Baltic to give the Hun a good thrashing.
 
3 results out of 26. You going to address the substantive points? They're not on 17% and that they'd have to almost double their share to the vote in 3 months to be polling 25% by the summer.

They're pricks and they are growing but lets have proper analysis not daft claims.
There's core support and then there is protest vote, both of which count equally in an election. They took almost 100% of the protest vote in Eastleigh, and a lot of it came from Labour voters who abandoned the Lib Dems but did not return to Labour.

Eastleigh is downright weird as a constituency, but in 2015 UKIP will be picking up tactical as well as protest votes in constituencies like Eastleigh and their protest vote will be strong in many areas, in the absence of any left party capable of competing for those votes.

This is Ashcroft on his Eastleigh exit poll:

UKIP’s claim towards the end of the campaign that they were enjoying a late surge is borne out by the fact that nearly a third of their voters (31%) made up their minds in the last week – indeed nearly a fifth (18%) decided on the day. This also helps to explain the bump in their support since my final pre-election poll, taken last weekend.

Our question on why people voted as they did suggests a high proportion of the UKIP voters wished a plague upon all parties’ houses: 83% of them said they were sending a message that they were “unhappy with the party I usually support nationally”, and three quarters wanted to show they were “unhappy with all the main parties at the moment”. Notably, the proportion saying they voted UKIP “tactically to try and prevent another party from winning” (40%) was nearly as high as the proportion among those who voted Lib Dem (43%).

http://conservativehome.blogs.com/p...heres-why-eastleigh-voted-the-way-it-did.html
 
We can safely assume that three aircraft carriers and 70 ships aren't much good for defending the plains of central Europe if the Kremlin went mad.

Perhaps Europe should spend more in its own defence?

A comment, though: recently, the trend has been to have fewer ships capable of doing more. I'm not so sure that's a good idea. In combat, ships get sunk, so the loss of each newer ship is more keenly felt. If you have more ships, albeit each less capable, then the loss of a ship isn't such a problem.

So what on earth do UKIP want with this massive expansion in naval power?

I assume it's for flexibility in projecting power. Nothing says "Hi" like a carrier fleet. And defence of trade routes. If you're going to have a carrier fleet then 3 carriers is a good choice - 2 active in the fleet (in case 1 gets sunk) and 1 in refit. And more tangibly, it's jobs for the shipyards. The two current carriers are being built up north, so this is likely a play for votes in and around Portsmouth and Southampton. Expansion of the army provides employment too, of course. Notice that they want to regionalise the army - spreading the jobs. Beyond that it's hard to say because their defence policy document seems to be missing.

Unless they want to sail these ships to the Baltic to give the Hun a good thrashing.

Why bother when we've got Trident?
 
The tories are putting 'expectations management' into play with stories planted in the press about how awful the May elections will be. When they turn out to be not quite as awful it'll be painted as a victory, and evidence that Milliband isn't making the needed breakthrough. Pretty standard stuff (and practiced by the last Labour gov too).
 
One of their posters has appeared by us in Brighton.

It's garish pink/yellow and shouts:

STOP EU IMMIGRATION

ENOUGH IS ENOUGH

In a city that thrives on foreign tourists, students and workers it's pretty offensive.


Who the fuck do these people think they are? :mad:
 
This gives a bit of insight into why UKIP is attracting votes not just from the Tories but from Labour.

Conclusion of research report on Immigration and Perceptions of the Political System in Britain in Political Quarterly

Existing academic research has highlighted the potentially negative consequences of ethnic and cultural diversity for citizens' willingness to trust and cooperate with one another20 and the potentially negative effect of ethnic and cultural divisions on welfare provision, as citizens come to perceive the recipients of public funding as vastly different from themselves. The author's own research points to the conclusion that concerns about cultural diversity may also have negative consequences for democratic political systems, because such concerns are weakening the sense of connection between citizens and the institutions and elites that govern them. Such a conclusion is particularly worrying given that most democracies have become culturally diverse, especially after the influx of immigrants in the post-Second World War period. If this association was limited to certain political parties or certain governments, the findings would be far less troubling, as they would indicate that concern about immigration really only affects specific support for governments of the day rather than more deep-seated diffuse or general system support.
The findings here, however, point to a potentially persistent, strong relationship between concern about immigration and distrust in politics in Britain. These findings confirm that the perceived harm to national community being done by large-scale immigration to Britain has potentially serious consequences for attitudes toward the political system as a whole, including all government institutions and elites of all political leanings. Thus, despite the British public's association of the Conservative party with toughness on immigration, the findings reported here indicate that in modern-day Britain, the public may be equally sceptical about all parties' ability to control immigration.
Of course, the survey used here came at a fairly early stage of the Conservative–Liberal Democrat coalition government, and so it will be important to continue to monitor this relationship as relevant survey data become available. At present, though, based on the 2010–11 survey used here, it appears that the connection between concern about immigration and political distrust is strong and robust. Why might this be the case?
While the Conservative party has consistently been seen as the best party to handle immigration and asylum issues compared with the other main parties, the Ipsos MORI data discussed above point to the conclusion that for the past decade or so, a larger group of survey respondents have actually come to think either that none of the three main parties are best on immigration, or that they are unsure as to which is better. That is, while those who do think one of these parties is better on immigration tend to say it is the Conservatives who are stronger, there are often many more British citizens who are not clear about which party is stronger. This, in turn, perhaps reflects a high level of scepticism on the part of the British public about the ability of the political system as a whole to have much impact on immigration policy, particularly since the passing of the Human Rights Act in 1998—which had significant repercussions for control of immigration and asylum policy—and more recently the large influx of EU immigrants who were not subject to UK immigration controls (by the government's own choice).
The prospect of reduced levels of political trust as a result of concerns about the impact of immigration on British culture and society has potentially serious consequences for governance. Academic research indicates, for instance, that individuals are more willing to try to cheat the system (not pay taxes and not pay for public transportation) and are more willing to break the law when their perceptions of the political system are negative.22 As noted above, some research indicates that people are also less willing to support state policies involving redistribution of state funds when they perceive cultural differences between themselves and those who access these funds. In short, the possibility of reduced levels of political trust resulting from concerns about immigration presents the prospect of a weakened political system. The findings here point to the conclusion that this is now a potentially persistent phenomenon which all political parties in Britain must in some way address.
 
The39thStep said:
This gives a bit of insight into why UKIP is attracting votes not just from the Tories but from Labour.

Conclusion of research report on Immigration and Perceptions of the Political System in Britain in Political Quarterly

Interesting stuff and feels about right. Serious implications for the pro state left. Puts into words suspicions I have had re: America for a long time too.
 
UKIP hoover up a lot of people who think they are "anti establishment" in their support. FB politics groups are full of this type of thing, followed by such statements as "it's UKIP for me".

The predictable irony is that UKIP are an entirely pro establishment party, the establishment being massive corporations and the failed cult of capital for whom the 'kippers will handly adopt any position.

They are a cruel hoax, just as most phoney populist reactionaries tend to be.
 
UKIP hoover up a lot of people who think they are "anti establishment" in their support. FB politics groups are full of this type of thing, followed by such statements as "it's UKIP for me".

The predictable irony is that UKIP are an entirely pro establishment party, the establishment being massive corporations and the failed cult of capital for whom the 'kippers will handly adopt any position.

Too true, but their chief selling point is they are percieved to be opposed to the political establishment which is where the electoral attraction lies.
 
The main problem with the political establishment is that it is wholly owned by the corporate hegemony, and replacing them with UKIP who will kneel down for the same cunts (starting with Murdoch, who has had several meetings with Farage) will do nothing to change anything. The fuckwittery of some of their policies such as flat tax might just bring forward the day when we set them all on fire, but outright victory is unlikely - the greater usefulness as seen by corporates will be in dragging the political debate rightwards, and diverting blame from those squeezing wages and conditions for higher profits onto marginalised groups like migrant workers. They'll be being pushed by the media, but not all the way home.
 
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