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Ukip - why are they gaining support?

treelover said:
http://www.thisislincolnshire.co.uk...tory-17372074-detail/story.html#axzz2PooF3pCU

Over 300 at the last one in December in Boston, if they were from just the local area that is substantial, it is more than the BT protests in my city..
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They're having one in Spalding tomorrow which looks like its going to be unopposed and then theres going to be one in Wisbech on Saturday May 18th
http://www.elystandard.co.uk/news/v...ukip_only_party_to_halt_immigration_1_1981723

If anyone has any suggestions for what I could do... I could quite easily infiltrate their protest seeing as i look like one of them...
 
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If anyone has any suggestions for what I could do... I could quite easily infiltrate their protest seeing as i look like one of them...
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like this...;)
 
The IWCA look at UKIP's attempts to appeal to working class voters, the effects this has on wider political discourse, where and why they have done well (and conversely why the left haven't) and suggests if successful they will come up against the same external limits that the BNP faced (and i would argue they have internal constraints as well but we'll see on that):

The Slow Fix

However, just because the BNP have imploded doesn’t mean that the reasons behind their success have disappeared or that their vote has gone away. As the IWCA put it after last year’s French presidential elections: ‘despite these setbacks, the underlying conditions which facilitated the BNP’s rise are still there: disillusionment with the neo-liberal centre and a Labour party that has turned its back on the working class, producing a political vacuum. There is no reason to assume that the BNP is permanently impaired or cannot learn their lessons; but even if that were so, the opportunity remains for some other right-wing formation to fill the vacuum (it is notable that UKIP did well at the recent local elections, a new phenomenon for them)’ (link).

And so it is coming to pass. According to research conducted by Rob Ford of the University of Manchester, many UKIP loyalists ‘come from working class, Labour leaning backgrounds, and are deeply hostile to all the establishment parties… UKIP supporters’ views of all three parties’ leaders are strongly and persistently negative, and they are more likely to express alienation from politics and dissatisfaction with democracy… UKIP’s strongest support often comes from older working class voters, who often have traditional left wing loyalties’ (link).
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..

The IWCA is of the left, the BNP and UKIP are of the right, but what all three share is an awareness of orientating toward the working class, and of the necessity of addressing day-to-day working class concerns. There is a clear pattern: a direct strategic orientation first and foremost to the working class where they live – and not just where they work, and not just those in unionised occupations – bears fruit. It is a simple, straightforward strategic insight, yet it has eluded what is left of the left outside the Labour party. The failure of the left to grasp this simple lesson is allowing UKIP a free run to swallow up the vote the BNP previously broke away from Labour. UKIP are filling the vacuum because they are now the only ones who are trying, in any realistic sense, to fill it.

In particular, they are being allowed to lead the debate on immigration and frame the matter purely in nationalist, reactionary terms, with no countervailing perspective framing the matter in terms of class. TUSC’s manifesto does not mention immigration, it merely states ‘Defend the right to asylum’ (link). Prior to the onset of the economic crisis, the attitude of the liberal left was that any failure to support unlimited immigration was xenophobic and racist: it seems that even TUSC has realised this position is no longer tenable, but rather than address the issue in class terms they don’t address it at all.
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Unless there is a change of strategy and orientation on the left, the process of ‘pushing the political goalposts ever right-wards’ will only continue. As has been shown, there is a means whereby the left can begin to compete, namely to ‘fight for the attainment of the immediate aims, for the enforcement of the momentary interests of the working class’ because ‘in the movement of the present, they also represent and take care of the future of that movement’ (link). As a strategy it can be arduous, unglamorous and requires a long term investment - a slow fix - but it is the only way forward if our side is serious about rising to the twin challenges of capitalist crisis and growing right-wing nationalism, not just here but in Europe. The austerity clawbacks offer a once in a century opportunity and if the left as a whole continues to shirk its responsibility, the judgement of history will be merciless and the consequences will be profound.
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Refreshing to have an analysis which actually looks at how the left relates to the working class rather than one about the 'IS tradition'
 
It works just fine if you copy the link into another browser tab.

The Tories got only 89 votes!
 
Maybe if the 'left' had a leader that was constantly on the TV and in the papers, appeared on Question Time 13 times and so on they'd make inroads. Visibility is important. Farage is everywhere, but policy and some of their questionable statements are never analysed anywhere prominent - those claims of 8 million Romanians 'invading' and so on. I think Labour are strategically leaving them alone as they think they'll do more damage to the tories than to them, but it might not work out that way.
 
Excellent article. I'd expecting nothing less of course but it's really good that some on the left are offering this analysis in the midst of all the energy that gets expended on navel-gazing about the IS tradition or getting into twitter wars with the commentariat.

Some minor criticisms: I think quoting 17% for UKIP's support is a slight over-statement of where they're at right now. That specific poll that said 17% would appear to be an outlier and the trend is for them is around 10-12% from what I've seen. Furthermore we've yet to see if the Tories can neutralise it at local and general elections. My guess is that UKIP will do start to do consistently well at a local level, but are unlikely to reproduce that success at the 2015 general election. Despite this the point that's being made about how UKIP is comparable to the more successful contintental European far-right populist groups is absolutely correct so it is just a quibble really. It's always worth re-iterating that Britain probably would've developed a far-right populist party with an established presence in parliament by now if it weren't for our uniquely undemocratic electoral system.

Likewise with the TUSC election result, I doubt TUSC were too bothered about how badly they did in Eastleigh. I know it's tempting to highlight the shitness of the result to really rub their nose in it, but I personally think the more damning results for TUSC were in Rotherham and Manchester central, and a more detailed discussion of exactly why their strategy isn't working might've been good. These are both areas where the SP has a presence, many branches and hundreds of members, and the support of some large trade unions too. OK it's not much compared to the mainstream parties obviously, but it's something, and in spite of these resources there's been nothing to show. They should be doing better. These are both constituencies where the left ought to be making inroads during a time of recession, but TUSC is getting nowhere. Perhaps the SP need to stop thinking the sun shines out of the arse of "left" trade union bosses and go back to a more localist type of campaigning (something which they do in fact have history of doing at their best) rather than trying to re-live the glory years of being bag-carriers for the Labour Left, this time substituted with the TU bureaucracy. I won't be holding my breath obviously.

So what are the internal pressures within UKIP? There's already a contradiction, a fairly well established one that's been mentioned on this thread before, between the more libertarian inclined laissez-faire types and the socially conservative ex-Tory's. Take an issue such as gay marriage for instance. UKIP's public position is that they're are implacably opposed - and it's given them a short-term boost by winning support from disaffected Tory voters - but it's not a popular policy in the country, polls say a clear majority of people are either in favour or indifferent, and this is particularly pronounced amongst young people. There's also a differing of opinion within the party, also reflected along generational lines. How they reconcile these differences in their own party on a policy like gay marriage, with an eye on making sure they don't end up being so reactionary that they alienate loads of potential voters, will be very interesting.

Then there's the contradiction with them picking up the ex BNP's vote but offering very little in terms of actual policies for working class people. The article is right to highlight the shift in rhetoric from Farage to anti-immigrant stuff phrased in fairly sensible economic terms, rather than ranting about cultural marxist conspiracies to commit genocide against the white race etc. But I think they're going to have to develop something more substantial than just "they took our jobs" rhetoric if they want to become more than a protest vote for w/c people worried about the consequences of immigration.

This leads to the question: How far will they be able to "fill the vacuum" of working class representation whilst also supporting some outrageous neo-liberal policies that would do real harm to w/c people should they ever get chance to carry them out? I know there's a substantial group within w/c communities that's receptive to benefit-bashing rhetoric but that's only a part of what UKIP has in store. The BNP actually did have policies on council housing, renationalising utilities etc that were thought up to deal with the material needs of working class communities that are disenfranchised. It helped embed them in w/c communities in a way I haven't seen from UKIP - infact I wouldn't be so sure if UKIP cared enough about the the political priorities of w/c people to undertake a policy shift in that direction, I think UKIP are quite condescnding about w/c voters and work on a basis that the plebs are thick and racist so that's all they need to do to win their votes. UKIP's policies all seem to be drawn from a idiosyncratic mix of dogmatic ultra-Thatcherism and social conservatism, with all sorts of miscellaneous crankish libertarian conspiracy theories thrown in there.

In terms of organisation UKIP always seemed to be to be lacking compared to the BNP. The BNP at their peak had quite a lot of active members, had a visible public presence and seemed fairly well organised - although this is based on my experience in small northern towns I couldn't say that with the same degree of certainty about elsewheere in the country. I don't wish to slip into cliche's about "boots on the ground" and so on but it's worth asking the question - is UKIP's organisational capacity and membership keeping up with their poll ratings? Their ability to stand candidates is becoming impressive, as the article mentions, but do they have a large and engaged enough membership to support those candidates and then make the leap from a being small party that does well in the polls into a medium sized party that does well in elections?

Then you other issues. Look at the way for instance UKIP gets heavy (mainly positive) press coverage. Is that going to remain the case forever? The press is fickle - ask Boris Johnson about this. Private Eye was covering this quite recently, Murdoch was having Farage over for lunch at just the time he started going cold on Boris. If UKIP stand a reasonable chance of costing the Tories the next election and delivering a Labour govt will Murdoch and the press stop being so nice and turn their ire on Falange? How would those polls number stand up without the soft backing of the right-wing press? And there's also another feature of UKIP I was wanting to go into (but have been too busy to do) which is their continual appearances on Alex Jones and other conspiracy theorist sites. Maybe I'm wrong and all publicity is good publicity but being a regularly fixture on a TV show which is such a cesspit of racism and anti-semitism is a bit of a risk for a party keen not end up like the BNP, surely? Does trying to get some of the the "outlaw status" of people like Alex Jones actually work in UKIP's long-term advantage?

Despite these internal pressures the article's spot on - UKIP looks on track to push the centre of british politics further right in exactly the way previous IWCA articles have predicted. And I don't see anything much yet in terms of critical re-evaluation from the left that could stop that. The younger generation of the self-identified left is too wrapped up in the online commentariat wars and who's falling out with who on twitter to notice what's actually going on with the class struggle (and just so no-one gets narked I'm not having a go as if I'm better than that, I'm part of that generation too and it's a criticism that applies to me more than a lot of others) The older generations are tied to the mast of Trotskyism (or whichever moribund grouplet they've pledged allegience too) and they'll go down with that ship.

Getting analysis of this type out to a working class audience is critical and something we should spend more time thinking about.
 
Nigel fucking Farage is on every single news program I turn on recently, I'm not quite sure what's going on. Hopefully he gets even busier and has to start taking light aircraft in between engagements again.
 
Excellent analysis Delroy. UKIP are getting ahead of themselves right now, and your question about their local organisation can ever really keep up with their poll ratings is on the mark.

But they're strong, for now, out of a vacuum of real political challenge, and unchallenged themselves by anyone influential.
 
8115 said:
No, I missed it. Didn't he go to Bulgaria and find precisely nobody who was planning to move to England or something?
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Yes, he did but he refused to believe the Roma or the Bulgarians when they told him they didn't want to live in a country with such lousy weather.
 
Left Unity(85 groups and growing) which I think unlike others on here is going to be substantial are likely to have some sort of open borders policy, there doesn't seem to be any sign of awareness on the issues around it for working class people, this will undoubtedly limit any electoral viability they have.

especially as its components will include a sizeable element of the ISN who are clear on their support for open borders..

btw, kudos to Ch4 news for beginning a real debate on the issues..
 
Not just their viability electorally but in composition and engagement. Lets face it the left are happier in the company of the left.
 
Delroy Booth said:
Despite these internal pressures the article's spot on - UKIP looks on track to push the centre of british politics further right in exactly the way previous IWCA articles have predicted. And I don't see anything much yet in terms of critical re-evaluation from the left that could stop that.
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Great analysis, I think this is particularly spot on, UKIP are fulfilling a very similar function to the one that the Tea Party did in the US - that of being a populist social conservative, neoliberal party with a thin veneer of 'libertarianism' which misdirects the victims of neoliberalism to another neoliberal project. Murdoch, amongst others, was absolutely behind the Tea Party project and he seems to be trying to achieve something similar here.

ronnigelschiff.gif


These people are even meeting at neoliberal conferences, I really think that the Tea Party model is being applied in Britain.
 
treelover said:
Left Unity(85 groups and growing) which I think unlike others on here is going to be substantial are likely to have some sort of open borders policy, there doesn't seem to be any sign of awareness on the issues around it for working class people, this will undoubtedly limit any electoral viability they have.

especially as its components will include a sizeable element of the ISN who are clear on their support for open borders
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Not just clear on their support for open borders, clear in their very vocal belief that anyone who thinks otherwise is a racist of the worst kind which automatically puts them in conflict with 99% of people.
 
Dropped in my postal vote this morning, there were the three main parties, UKIP and the Greens. The town has been traditionally Tory or Lib-Dem, with a few dubious decisions - un-necessary tree felling, resurfacing of some back roads that councillors just happen to live in, and ANPR cameras on all exit roads from the town...

Only UKIP has put a flying through the door and the only signs I've seen are UKIP. The UKIP guy is fairly experienced (previously Tory). the flyer put me off though. Usual blurb about local services that no-one would believe, a bit about no windfarms, though there are none planned near the town anyway, and the back was dominated with a blurb about how the Romanians and Bulgarians are coming. So it was a vote for the Greens.
 
J Ed said:
Not just clear on their support for open borders, clear in their very vocal belief that anyone who thinks otherwise is a racist of the worst kind which automatically puts them in conflict with 99% of people.
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Treelover, how can you imagine this thing is going to get round even the first corner with such a total detachment from reality.
I know you like to be positive but you can see the problem with this sort of detached buffoonery so surely you can also see its going to smash headfirst into the first wall it comes across.

These sorts don't seem to understand the need for credibility. And that it needs to be earnt.
 
The BNP have released a leaflet to counter UKIP. It's accessible via this [link broken] https://twitter. com/bnp/status/327434842960695296 and it makes interesting reading on the issue of UKIP attracting working class votes. The slogans are "UKIP - Like the Tories but richer" and the slightly more bonkers "Want a Muslim neighbour? Vote UKIP" but the issues they are attacking them on are NHS privatization, attacks on working conditions and sick pay and er, Equality legislation for women.

EDIT Oh yeah and this. UKIP candidate found pushing Protocols of the Elders of Zion and Rothschilds type antisemitism. http://politicalscrapbook.net/2013/04/ukip-candidate-blames-world-war-ii-and-the-holocaust-on-jews/

This is what happens when you actively court the Alex Jones crowd.....
 
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2013/apr/25/some-ukip-candidates-possible-bnp-members

Nigel Farage's comments here are quite revealing.

When it comes to the general election and the European elections, we have put in place a very rigorous testing procedure – testing people's knowledge, their ability with media – you know, full credit checks, police checks and all the rest of it," said Farage.

"I'll be honest with you, we don't have the party apparatus in a very short space of time to fully vet 1,700 people.
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I bet there's a few more racist cranks to come out of the woodwork, problem is I don't think "exposing" people for having far-right views is going to do much good in the long run. Diminishing returns.
 
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