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Ukip - why are they gaining support?

As an impressionistic aside, in the absence of social mobilisation on a significant scale, right-wing parties find it easier to grow as they are essentially just building on the logic of ideological production of society more broadly (something left-wing parties can do, but with more difficulty).

Would you care to explain that in rather simpler terms?
 
Would you care to explain that in rather simpler terms?

Ok, our entire public debate is based on right-wing premises, which is an easier base for right-wing parties to build on.

One example; if you start from the idea that "British people" are one unified group with common interests (an idea that's pretty basic to all our political parties, media institutions, political commentators etc.), then things like "putting Britain first" naturally spring from that (and a whole load of policy preferences re: immigration, internationalism etc.).
 
They are 17% now but this is only just starting point as the potential size of the placebo vote is 40% or more.

The Left could fill this bits of this void, but only a new and aggressive Left. People are immune to the Left they've heard before. They don't believe it will work and they don't want nice, they want hard and on their side (eg Syriza , who are aggressive , for now , towards Berlin).

By summer UKIP will be up to 25%, barring exposure.
Sorry which poll has put them on 17%?

The idea that they'll be polling 25% (nationally) is barking, you are clearly talking nonsense.

ETA: I've seen there's three polls in March which have them on 17%, but they're outliers. Using the March polling from here they're on 12.5% for the month (could be slightly out just did calculation quickly), so significantly lower than the 17% figure you're using.
 
Ok, our entire public debate is based on right-wing premises, which is an easier base for right-wing parties to build on.

Ah, right.

One example; if you start from the idea that "British people" are one unified group with common interests (an idea that's pretty basic to all our political parties, media institutions, political commentators etc.), then things like "putting Britain first" naturally spring from that (and a whole load of policy preferences re: immigration, internationalism etc.).

Except that's a nationalist POV not a right-wing one.
 
Interesting article but it conflates concern over immigration with racism. Notice that the current concern is immigration by Romanians - whites.

Jews are/were "white". Skin colour didn't stop racism. "White" is a moveable feast, and not necessarily a shield from racism.
 
Yes, but the current concern is not because they're Romanians per se; it's that a large group of people will have the right to immigrate. UKIP affect to be concerned about immigration from everywhere.
 
Ah, right.

Except that's a nationalist POV not a right-wing one.
Well yes, but nationalist positions come more naturally to Right-wing parties than Left-wing ones (particularly parties outside the political mainstream). Ally it to other parts of public discourse (idealisation of "working hard and getting on", hostility to people seen as unproductive, exclusion of marginalised groups from the national narrative), and it's an open goal for UKIP really. They're free to say everything that public discourse implies, without actually having to act on it.

(acting on it is impossible for the political class of course, curtailing immigration would cost the country billions of pounds, as would pulling out of the EU, a degree of subsistence for the unemployed is vital for reproducing the labour force and maintaining social stability etc etc.)
 
(acting on it is impossible for the political class of course,

Well, they're political inactivists at heart, aren't they? :D

curtailing immigration would cost the country billions of pounds, as would pulling out of the EU,

Those are the big two debates, aren't they? And opinions differ.

a degree of subsistence for the unemployed is vital for reproducing the labour force and maintaining social stability etc etc.)

That's their view. I've been unemployed and I think it would have been socially better if I and all the other unemployed had been employed.

Anyway, I just caught the last 5 mins or so of Farage's speech on BBC Parliament where he spoke of emulating the Liberal Democrats. I think he's making a mistake there.
 
Well, they're political inactivists at heart, aren't they? :D
If only. A bit of political inaction would've done wonders in the past four years (witness how well Belgium was doing until they disastrously agreed on a government)

Those are the big two debates, aren't they? And opinions differ.
They aren't debates if you look at them from perspective of the political class or the business class (essentially the same things). Ask the CBI or the big financial firms if they want the borders closed or to pull out of the EU.

That's their view. I've been unemployed and I think it would have been socially better if I and all the other unemployed had been employed.

Whatever you or I think about unemployment and social policy, the idea that "full employment" should be a goal of public policy has long been off the menu in public debate. A debate that now boils down to "how much forced labour should be inflicted on the unemployed"

Anyway, I just caught the last 5 mins or so of Farage's speech on BBC Parliament where he spoke of emulating the Liberal Democrats. I think he's making a mistake there.
It's a mistake to make the comparison. But UKIP's target would be something like that ie. a couple of dozen parliamentary seats, force the Tories into coalition...
 
The capitalist class win in a range of ways from today's unimpeded labour movement. It was of course an absolutely central( but obviously undeclared) plank of the Blair/Brown era economic strategy, and remains so for the Coalition today. And is an absolutely central policy plank of the EU . It ensure that the traditional economistic Trades Union "limitation of supply " strategy to defending working class wage levels and conditions is significantly undermined by an almost limitless supply of fresh labour. A labour supply of course which has cost the UK capitalist class absolutely nothing to reproduce or educate ! And a labour supply which is generally, younger, fitter, and keener to work crap hours and conditions and for lower wages than the indigenous workforce. Whats not to like for capitalism ! Then the capitalist class can also pull the ancient old "divide and rule" trick via their popular press, stoking up fears and hatreds against the very incomer workers they have imported ! --- distracting the indigenous working class from who is really responsible for shitty housing, the economic crisis, and the imminent destruction of the Welfare State. The capitalist class of course has no intention whatsoever of ending unimpeded labour supply, they will fight tooth and nail to continue it -- but they are quite happy for the vacuous bullshitters of UKIP to sow petty nationalist illusions and divisive anti immigrant hysteria amongst the rest of the population - confident that UKIP are just a bunch of con-artist saloon bar , in it for the big lunches, braggarts who will deliver absolutely none of their big promises. The capitalist ruling class would actually be much more nervous about a neo fascist party doing well on the same agenda, because the fairytale national autarkist "solutions" , anti immigrant ,and anti finance prejudices of fascism are much less easily controllable than the paper tigers of UKIP.

The danger for the radical Left is to be sucked into policy and ideological/terminological accommodations with the widespread anti migrant worker , and anti settled "immigrant" community, hysteria - as the Left periodically did to the anti semitism of the Nazis in Germany in the early 30's - wth lots of "nod and a wink" euphemisms to the Nazis working class support base about "of course we all hate Finance Capitalists" , when this was actually a universal code word for "Jewish Finance Capital". Concessions to racism and petty nationalism simply don't work - the Left not only shouldn't but CAN'T "out bigot" the Right - without becoming just a radical "anti capitalist" Left wing of the Right - "Strasserism" as it is usually called. Instead the radical Socialist Left has to simply grit its collective teeth in the face of a mass media created anti immigrant shitstorm and campaign relentlessly against the austerity offensive without scapegoating the other , immigrant, working class VICTIMS of the capitalist system. Our propaganda has to always take pains to pin the real blame on capitalism for poverty, low wages, the cuts. We need to try and draw people from across communities into these campaigns and struggles. And in the area of unfettered labour supply; ending free movement of , particularly EU, labour ? It simply aint going to happen under contemporary capitalism. So the struggle for better wages and conditions has to become much more straightforwardly political - rather than depending on traditional Trades Union "restriction of supply" nostrums. The struggle has to be also a national, electoral one,building a new radical socialist party and fighting for a planned egalitarian socialist society, with an internationalist perspective, but which does promise reindustrialisation and regional policy and a Welfare State, to ensure good skilled "jobs for all" and a good life for all. Obviously it would be up to a democratic socialist workers state what the policy was on the entry of external workers at any one time, in the rapidly changing circumstances of the time. But in that transformed socio/economic situation the international and domestic context would be completely different.
 
The capitalist class win in a range of ways from today's unimpeded labour movement. It was of course an absolutely central( but obviously undeclared) plank of the Blair/Brown era economic strategy, and remains so for the Coalition today. And is an absolutely central policy plank of the EU . It ensure that the traditional economistic Trades Union "limitation of supply " strategy to defending working class wage levels and conditions is significantly undermined by an almost limitless supply of fresh labour. A labour supply of course which has cost the UK capitalist class absolutely nothing to reproduce or educate ! And a labour supply which is generally, younger, fitter, and keener to work crap hours and conditions and for lower wages than the indigenous workforce. Whats not to like for capitalism ! Then the capitalist class can also pull the ancient old "divide and rule" trick via their popular press, stoking up fears and hatreds against the very incomer workers they have imported ! --- distracting the indigenous working class from who is really responsible for shitty housing, the economic crisis, and the imminent destruction of the Welfare State. The capitalist class of course has no intention whatsoever of ending unimpeded labour supply, they will fight tooth and nail to continue it -- but they are quite happy for the vacuous bullshitters of UKIP to sow petty nationalist illusions and divisive anti immigrant hysteria amongst the rest of the population - confident that UKIP are just a bunch of con-artist saloon bar , in it for the big lunches, braggarts who will deliver absolutely none of their big promises. The capitalist ruling class would actually be much more nervous about a neo fascist party doing well on the same agenda, because the fairytale national autarkist "solutions" , anti immigrant ,and anti finance prejudices of fascism are much less easily controllable than the paper tigers of UKIP.

The danger for the radical Left is to be sucked into policy and ideological/terminological accommodations with the widespread anti migrant worker , and anti settled "immigrant" community, hysteria - as the Left periodically did to the anti semitism of the Nazis in Germany in the early 30's - wth lots of "nod and a wink" euphemisms to the Nazis working class support base about "of course we all hate Finance Capitalists" , when this was actually a universal code word for "Jewish Finance Capital". Concessions to racism and petty nationalism simply don't work - the Left not only shouldn't but CAN'T "out bigot" the Right - without becoming just a radical "anti capitalist" Left wing of the Right - "Strasserism" as it is usually called. Instead the radical Socialist Left has to simply grit its collective teeth in the face of a mass media created anti immigrant shitstorm and campaign relentlessly against the austerity offensive without scapegoating the other , immigrant, working class VICTIMS of the capitalist system. Our propaganda has to always take pains to pin the real blame on capitalism for poverty, low wages, the cuts. We need to try and draw people from across communities into these campaigns and struggles. And in the area of unfettered labour supply; ending free movement of , particularly EU, labour ? It simply aint going to happen under contemporary capitalism. So the struggle for better wages and conditions has to become much more straightforwardly political - rather than depending on traditional Trades Union "restriction of supply" nostrums. The struggle has to be also a national, electoral one,building a new radical socialist party and fighting for a planned egalitarian socialist society, with an internationalist perspective, but which does promise reindustrialisation and regional policy and a Welfare State, to ensure good skilled "jobs for all" and a good life for all. Obviously it would be up to a democratic socialist workers state what the policy was on the entry of external workers at any one time, in the rapidly changing circumstances of the time. But in that transformed socio/economic situation the international and domestic context would be completely different.
Fucking hell. Which party should I join for all that Ayatollah?
 
Yes, but the current concern is not because they're Romanians per se; it's that a large group of people will have the right to immigrate. UKIP affect to be concerned about immigration from everywhere.

You implied that concerns against Romanians couldn't be "racism" because they're white. I was disabusing you of that notion.
 
You implied that concerns against Romanians couldn't be "racism" because they're white. I was disabusing you of that notion.

You're mistaken to think I held it in the first place though I can see how what I wrote could be so interpreted. For UKIP the current brouhaha over Romanians is nothing to do with their being Romanian. It would be the same if they were Angolan or Brazilian or Thai. The issue which UKIP - unlike the BNP - are exploiting is immigration, not race. It's a fine difference, but if you fail to make it, you fall into their trap.
 
Fucking hell. Which party should I join for all that Ayatollah?

The party I'm sure we all hope might emerge from the fog of growing struggle eventually as the crisis reaches the" tipping point "of pain for enough working class people. Then again of course it might not, and we're all completely screwed. Depends whether one's an optimist or a pessimist I suppose (yeh, yeh, I know - "or a fantasist")..
 
That's quite a few outliers.
3 results out of 26. You going to address the substantive points? They're not on 17% and that they'd have to almost double their share to the vote in 3 months to be polling 25% by the summer.

They're pricks and they are growing but lets have proper analysis not daft claims.
 
3 results out of 26. You going to address the substantive points? They're not on 17% and that they'd have to almost double their share to the vote in 3 months to be polling 25% by the summer.

They're pricks and they are growing but lets have proper analysis not daft claims.

when they poll 17%, it is legitimate to say then say they are on 17%. i don't see what it problematic about that, or about making predictions on an informal politics forum.
 
Right so you don't actually understand polling data.

Leaving the 25% nonsense aside, what are peoples predictions for their performance in the upcoming local elections?

Vast majority of the councils where election's are occurring are Tory atm.
 
redsquirrel said:
Right so you don't actually understand polling data.

Leaving the 25% nonsense aside, what are peoples predictions for their performance in the upcoming local elections?].

Just saving that one for posterity.
 
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