Ukip - why are they gaining support?

[butchersapron]

What does it say, then?

Like what i said at the start, that the idea of UKIP voters being rural army tory boys is a bit shit and people who think that need to grow up.

 

[Treacle Toes]

There are everywhere at the moment:

November 16th, 2012 22:28
UKIP is surely now a more attractive partner than the LibDems

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/author/danielhannan/

 

[butchersapron]

Having one of their lead crytpo- MEPs wrote about them in a soft-pro-ukip paper is not them being everywhere. That's just them being there.

 

[Treacle Toes]

.

 

[Jon-of-arc]

Now, that's a) not solely w/c i agree but b) not what i claimed at all. So wtf are you on about?

Like what i said at the start, that the idea of UKIP voters being rural army tory boys is a bit shit and people who think that need to grow up.

That's a no then. Thanks you for taking the time to undo your own claims.

Odd how:

Overall, we find UKIP support is concentrated among middle aged, financially insecure men with a Conservative background and is significantly higher among the skilled working classes who have been most exposed to competition from the European Common Market. UKIP supporters are also more likely than voters in general to read regularly one of Britain’s Euro- sceptic right-wing‘tabloid’ newspapers, though such papers are also popular with supporters of the mainstream Conservative Party.

Can be spun isn't it jon? Odd how it becomes "Middle aged to retired, professional/management,"

Actually, where I said "perhaps I misread it", I was totally wrong. I read it right the first time. It states that the majority of ukip voters are working class. This is not born out by the stats the study highlights. Anyway, I was winning for a while, but you're right, the drinks kicking into play. n'night butchers.

 

[co-op]

The revolution will not be intelligible.

Truly, Msgr butchers is imparting His Wisdom in ridddles on this thread.

 

[co-op]

Oh look co-op went, like i said,

Wrong again, O Sage. What? have you run away?

I predict you'll be back though because that's just what you do, isn't it?

 

[co-op]

Jesus, are you even reading any of my posts?

(a) don't start calling him Jesus or he really will disappear up his own aris
(b) no, you might as well discuss it with Jazzzz, you'll get as much sense.

 

[Turboprop]

I think a lot of people just dislike the eu and see both labour and tories as too chummy with brussels. But ukip don't seem to do so well in domestick elections

Too many ex MP's making a nice earner out of their 'jobs' in Brussells for them to do anything about it. Also, Brussells seems to be where a lot of our failed 'politicians' end up, so they need somewhere to go, at our expense of course!

 

[love detective]

Quite a decent analysis piece here based on youguv data

http://www7.politicalbetting.com/in...12/04/the-rise-of-ukip-what-does-it-all-mean/

In 2009, roughly 2 in 10 UKIP voters had voted Conservative in the previous election. Now, it is 4 in 10. So, even now less than half of UKIP’s current support is coming from former Tory voters.....

....research I have done with colleagues on UKIP loyalists suggests many come from working class, Labour leaning backgrounds, and are deeply hostile to all the establishment parties. This is borne out in the YouGov data – UKIP supporters’ views of all three parties’ leaders are strongly and persistently negative, and they are more likely to express alienation from politics and dissatisfaction with democracy. It is very doubtful that the Conservatives would sweep such voters if they allied with UKIP. And on top of this, a further quarter of recent UKIP support has come from Labour and the Lib Dems, or from abstainers. These are not groups the Conservatives are likely to win over with an alliance....

....So UKIP’s rise is clearly not the result of temporary defections by Conservative voters annoyed about Europe. What, then, is going on? My ongoing research with Matthew Goodwin suggests that UKIP shares many characteristics with “radical right” parties such as the Dutch Party for Freedom, the Danish People’s Party, the Austrian Freedom Party and the True Finns. Like these parties, UKIP mobilises voters who are primarily concerned about immigration, but are also typically nationalist, Eurosceptic and deeply disaffected with the existing political elite

 

[Quartz]

Quite a decent analysis piece here based on youguv data

http://www7.politicalbetting.com/in...12/04/the-rise-of-ukip-what-does-it-all-mean/

Your quote from that article is interesting given the Dislike Labour line in Table 2 - down to zero in 2011.

 

[love detective]

dislike of the labour government, which in 2011 no longer existed hence the zero

 

[Grandma Death]

Late to this one but as I see it the lib dems were the recipients of a lot of protest votes when they werent in government-now they are in government some of those votes will move down the chain.

 

[Quartz]

dislike of the labour government, which in 2011 no longer existed hence the zero

The text says one thing, the table another. But anyway, only a small minority most disliked Labour even when it was in power.

 

[ElizabethofYork]

The few UKIP supporters I know support them because they wish to leave the EU & stop immigration. These are their only only reasons for supporting UKIP. These people would be considered working class if they worked.

I agree with this. People who have in the past voted Conservative, Labour, Liberal or other but who are now worried about the effects of immigration and what they see as "interference" from the EU.

 

[gosub]

They didn't really gain any votes in the recent by elections looking at the numbers, more turnout was down as Lab/Con/Lib supporters failed to turnout

 

[SpookyFrank]

The revolution will not be intelligible.

Either pretend you understand or Commandante Butchers will have you up against the wall quicker than you can say 'and I thought Stalin was an arsehole'.

 

[butchersapron]

And to show this golf-club-majors vista has not been the situation for a while.

 

[butchersapron]

They didn't really gain any votes in the recent by elections looking at the numbers, more turnout was down as Lab/Con/Lib supporters failed to turnout

That is effectively a gain as it demonstrates the ability to motivate voters in a time of general electoral apathy. And anyway@

They doubled their vote in Croydon North despite the goofball candidate.
They doubled their vote in Rotheram.
They increased their vote by around 50% in Boro.

And this whilst turn outs fell in all the seats.

 

[gosub]

That is effectively a gain as it demonstrates the ability to motivate voters in a time of general electoral apathy. And anyway@

They doubled their vote in Croydon North despite the goofball candidate.
They doubled their vote in Rotheram.
They increased their vote by around 50% in Boro.

And this whilst turn outs fell in all the seats.

Not a fan but a couple of interesting pieces with links to other pieces (Rotherham)
http://www.eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=83384
http://www.eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=83386

eta Croydon is interesting

 

[co-op]

Oh look butchers is back. Just like I said.

 

[butchersapron]

First one says if you combine the BNP/UKIP Rotheram vote at the 2010 election you get 6000. Combine them after last weeks election and you get 6000. That may be true but the first took place on a 60% turnout and the second on a 33% turnout.And if you go back to 2005 you find a combined vote of 3000 - where have the extra voters come from if not the other parties or from non-voters? Either way shows an growth.

And what does it matter if they have taken some of the BNP's collapsing vote? Does this mean that they are destined to go the same way as the BNP due to some inherent limit and only ever have the same influence? I think the latter idea has been pretty clearly been blown out of the water by Mickey Fab's hand up his backside kite flying of recent weeks, the panicked tory reaction - inlcuding todays stuff about promising a referendum with an out option. And the former by the rise in the combined far-right (i'll use that term for now) from effectively nothing in 2001 to 6000+ today - second (and third) in the constituency.

 

[Treacle Toes]

Nigel squirms...

 

[Spanky Longhorn]

I would take Farage over Verhofstadt any day

 

[Bernie Gunther]

My (admittedly sketchy) understanding of Farage's economic policies is that he's a rabid free-marketeer.

Is that correct and if so, to what extent do his supporters understand that they're voting for e.g. dismantling the NHS etc?

 

[love detective]

My (admittedly sketchy) understanding of Farage's economic policies is that he's a rabid free-marketeer.

Is that correct and if so, to what extent do his supporters understand that they're voting for e.g. dismantling the NHS etc?

From what i've seen of their economic policies/manifesto they come across more like a proponent of a kind of post industrial east asian state developmental capitalism than free market capitalism

 

[junglevip]

They fill the void left by those that no longer represent ordinary folk

 

[butchersapron]

Lord Ashcroft’s polling on UKIP

Lord Ashcroft headlines his article on one of the most persistent myths about UKIP, that people vote for them over the issue of Europe and, therefore, winning the support of those people is all about offering policies related to Europe.


Past polling has shown this to be nonsense – a huge YouGov poll of voters in the 2009 European election found that Europe was only the fourth most important issue for UKIP voters after the economy, immigration and crime; a 2010 YouGov poll of UKIP voters at the 2010 election found the issue of Europe trailing behind the economy and immigration – and Lord Ashcroft finds the same now. Amongst people considering UKIP (he doesn’t provide a crossbreak for people saying they actually would vote UKIP) 68% name the economy as one of the most important issues facing the country, followed by immigration on 52% and welfare dependency on 46%. Europe is fifth on 27%… meaning almost three quarters of UKIP considerers really don’t see the issue of Europe as that important. Ashcroft found a similar pattern in his focus groups – Europe was mentioned comparatively little compared with immigration, welfare and general disatisfaction with modern Britain.

 

[junglevip]

bbc newsnight on now - Europe's shift to the right. goldendawn, spain2000

 

[The39thStep]

Lord Ashcroft’s polling on UKIP

Useful article that and also see Goodwins response based on his previous BNP polling data