Ukip - why are they gaining support?

[killer b]

I think the thrust of this thread has been that in order to get those numbers, their appeal is to a demographic beyond the estuary racist.

 

[chilango]

Who are UKIP a threat to? And what is the nature of that threat?

 

[emanymton]

Fair point perhaps re: dilberto specifically, but there are plenty of people out there who aren't playing at man-in-the street. There are plenty of working class British rascists and just plain disaffected working class British

I paid really close attention at the last council elections down here. UKIP did pretty well really in many of the working class ward. Not sure this will look very good but here goes

1st 2nd 3rd
Alphington Lab 808 Con 583 UKIP 529
Cowick Lab 813 UKIP 406 Con 400
Exwick Lab 870 UKIP 601 Con 320
Pinhoe Lab 862 Con 828 UKIP 460
Priory Lab/Co-op 1110 UKIP 721 Con 504

Gah, doesn't format nicely sorry.

The point is that whilst Labour held all those (and indeed took Pinhoe, see next point), UKIP were at their heels in two (Exwick and Priory). And yes, perhaps some shift was Con voters going to UKIP (see Pinhoe, taken from Con), it still makes for uncomfortable reading

You seem to assume that a Labour vote is in some way a positive thing. This is the problem with a lot of anti-ukip stuff it essentially collapses into supporting Labour. In reality the possible labour government is a much more real threat to the working class than UKIP is.

 

[Dogsauce]

Who are UKIP a threat to? And what is the nature of that threat?

It was the tories, which people were generally happy about, but it looks more than that now, which is causing a bit of gnashing and wailing on the left.

Aside from political calculations and elections, their rising success is really pissing off and upsetting various friends of mine, people who've had a lifetime of struggling to feel accepted for their sexuality and now feel threatened by a party of whom prominent member speak out against them and fight against moves to give their relationships parity with other people's relationships. Several people I know have struggled mentally with social/parental rejection, and UKIP's ascendancy is making them feel more isolated and rejected by the world. A few years ago it felt like a battle that was being won, with even the worst of the tabloids losing their obsession with sexuality, but now there's a rising political movement with prominent members supporting discrimination. It's one of the reasons I tend not to share some of the nuttier racist/homophobic stuff candidates come up with, not because I don't feel it should be exposed (not that that proves to be a useful tactic) but out of sensitivity to people I know that would read it. A few immigrant friends also have a hard time with the rhetoric, but maybe not on quite as personal a level. Feeling hated is not nice, and that's what this stuff is doing.

 

[butchersapron]

That's all tories/lab/lib-dem then.

Them thinking UKIP are the real threat is laughable. - How can they change social attitudes or legislation? They can't. Nor are these ridiculous social conservative positions theirs.

But that's what the sort of anti-ukip nonsense that dominates debate has centred it on. Meanwhile, all the ukip voters you know are not giving a shit about poofters and just getting on with being fucking normal

 

[fucthest8]

You seem to assume that a Labour vote is in some way a positive thing. This is the problem with a lot of anti-ukip stuff it essentially collapses into supporting Labour. In reality the possible labour government is a much more real threat to the working class than UKIP is.

Not sure Labour are more of threat to the working class than UKIP, but certainly no better and arguably less "obvious" a threat, if that's the word. And yes, agree with your point about "collapsing into supporting labour" because what's the alternative?

 

[killer b]

Of course they're more of a threat to the working class than UKIP. They're actually going to be in power, enacting anti working-class policies, next May. Not a problem we're facing with UKIP.

 

[emanymton]

Not sure Labour are more of threat to the working class than UKIP, but certainly no better and arguably less "obvious" a threat, if that's the word. And yes, agree with your point about "collapsing into supporting labour" because what's the alternative?

Basically what Killer b just said.

 

[fucthest8]

Got it,, thanks for being tolerant of my poor deduction.

E2A: I "look forward" to finding out if you are right.

Fucked either way though, the Government will def get in.

 

[ViolentPanda]

Fair point perhaps re: dilberto specifically, but there are plenty of people out there who aren't playing at man-in-the street. There are plenty of working class British rascists and just plain disaffected working class British

There are "plenty" of British racists full-stop. The majority of them, however, tend to be pragmatic and set aside their racism with regard to voting. We could say, validly in my opinion, that they could potentially form part of a UKIP vote, but that could as likely be because they saw UKIP as a pragmatic "protest vote" choice as because they happened to be racist.
As for the disaffected working class, where I am the loudest voice speaking for the disaffected is silence - they don't vote, not even as a means of protest.

I paid really close attention at the last council elections down here. UKIP did pretty well really in many of the working class ward. Not sure this will look very good but here goes

1st 2nd 3rd
Alphington Lab 808 Con 583 UKIP 529
Cowick Lab 813 UKIP 406 Con 400
Exwick Lab 870 UKIP 601 Con 320
Pinhoe Lab 862 Con 828 UKIP 460
Priory Lab/Co-op 1110 UKIP 721 Con 504

Gah, doesn't format nicely sorry.

The point is that whilst Labour held all those (and indeed took Pinhoe, see next point), UKIP were at their heels in two (Exwick and Priory). And yes, perhaps some shift was Con voters going to UKIP (see Pinhoe, taken from Con), it still makes for uncomfortable reading

So, looks like they've done well in Labour wards by drawing off segments of the Tory and Lib-Dem, and to a much more minor extent, the Labour vote. If that's the case, then it tells us that Tories are looking for a parliamentary right alternative to the Tories (something that elements of Tory support have been after since Thatcher was deposed in 1990), and that the Orange Bookers among the Lib-Dem voters are happy to register their pissed-offness at their national party by making a protest vote to the right of their party's position.

 

[ViolentPanda]

Dipped in and out over the last couple of months, but no, I haven't read all 129 pages, absolutely not. Apologies if there is more of an agreement that they are a real threat than the last few pages and the parts I have read previously gave me cause to believe. I just hear a lot of sneering still (not here, IRL) and it makes me nervous.

The sneering isn't surprising - a lot of people don't think beyond tripartite mainstream politics. They see The Green Party, UKIP etc as "fringe" politics, even though both parties actually engage with much of the same material as the mainstream parties. If you can't see the utility of minor parties, then sneering is a fairly benign response to something you don't understand. The only sneerers who worry me are those who are (for want of a better phrase) "politically-literate" and still sneer at UKIP.

 

[redsquirrel]

There are plenty of working class British rascists and just plain disaffected working class British

What do you mean by racists though? That they are hardcore ideological racists? That they hold some racial prejudices?

I'm not saying you're doing it but there's a stupid tendency to either assign people as racists or not racists (I can of two or three recent threads on U75 where you can see such rubbish). It's nonsense of course, people can have nothing to do with, or even oppose, ideological racism, but still hold some racist views. This simple division into the racists and the non-racists is just ludicrous.

Gah, doesn't format nicely sorry.

Agree, the lack of tables/formatting is fucking huge pain in the arse.

 

[SpackleFrog]

Jack from Welling and dilberto above might be morons, but they are morons with a vote. Morons who believe, to paraphrase Jack, that "people only care about immigration" and that Farage is giving voice to "ordinary British people".

I just hear a lot of sneering still (not here, IRL) and it makes me nervous.

 

[youngian]

Doubtless many of you will be able to prove me wrong, but I really think that we* ignore all the above at our peril. Jack from Welling and dilberto above might be morons, but they are morons with a vote. Morons who believe, to paraphrase Jack, that "people only care about immigration" and that Farage is giving voice to "ordinary British people".

I won't prove you wrong but we have been here before; Ugandan Asians leading to rivers of blood, West Indian muggers, Irish bomb makers and more recently the scrounging refugees. The largest groups of immigrants are from India and Pakistan but that doesn't even seem to even be an issue anymore (in fact UKIP is open to more immigration from decent Commonwealth chaps over EU criminals). So I can't really see Gordon riots against Polish bar staff and Lithuanian farm workers on the horizon.

 

[taffboy gwyrdd]

 

[Manter]

I won't prove you wrong but we have been here before; Ugandan Asians leading to rivers of blood, West Indian muggers, Irish bomb makers and more recently the scrounging refugees. The largest groups of immigrants are from India and Pakistan but that doesn't even seem to even be an issue anymore (in fact UKIP is open to more immigration from decent Commonwealth chaps over EU criminals). So I can't really see Gordon riots against Polish bar staff and Lithuanian farm workers on the horizon.

There are a lot of stories circulating on Facebook about Eastern European women snatching babies at the moment. Apparently there are loads of them at it, in Bromley, Norbury, prowling the aisles of Sainsbury's.....

 

[William of Walworth]

Is that YouGov poll reliable? (brogdale butchersapron)? Those second two questions look a bit like 'invite the answer' leading questions to me.

Saying that, it does look consistent with the polarised response UKIP have been shown to receive in other polls -- with at least as many being hostile to them as favourable --can't remember details, but there's been more than one poll in recent months showing very strong Marmite.

 

[William of Walworth]

There are a lot of stories circulating on Facebook about Eastern European women snatching babies at the moment. Apparently there are loads of them at it, in Bromley, Norbury, prowling the aisles of Sainsbury's.....

Facdebook -- the RL forum for 'what I heard down the pub'/'what our neighbours told me' stories. Anecdotes -- the more second and third hand, the riper. So eagerly and readily believed (and underquestioned) by those who want to believe them.

 

[Manter]

Facdebook -- the RL forum for 'what I heard down the pub'/'what our neighbours told me' stories. Anecdotes -- the more second and third hand, the riper. So eagerly and readily believed (and underquestioned) by those who want to believe them.

Yes- and baby snatching is the oldest racist trope in the book.

 

[killer b]

Is that YouGov poll reliable? (brogdale butchersapron)? Those second two questions look a bit like 'invite the answer' leading questions to me.

Saying that, it does look consistent with the polarised response UKIP have been shown to receive in other polls -- with at least as many being hostile to them as favourable --can't remember details, but there's been more than one poll in recent months showing very strong Marmite.

it's a shit and worthless poll, regardless of the accuracy.

 

[Dogsauce]

That's push-polling by the look of it, although I think the other questions would need to be seen to judge whether it's a fair survey of attitudes to all the parties. Who paid for it? Crosby?

 

[brogdale]

Is that YouGov poll reliable? (brogdale butchersapron)? Those second two questions look a bit like 'invite the answer' leading questions to me.

Saying that, it does look consistent with the polarised response UKIP have been shown to receive in other polls -- with at least as many being hostile to them as favourable --can't remember details, but there's been more than one poll in recent months showing very strong Marmite.

I really haven't seen any publicly published YG polling for that date that includes those questions. Maybe it was part of some private polling? tbh the results don't look very surprising given that (when the fieldwork would have been undertaken) UKIP were a young, untested party with no MPs and a leader who has described their previous manifesto as "drivel".

 

[brogdale]

Smithson suggests that UKIP might have more to be concerned about from polling that confirms their high 'marmite" quotient....

Those numbers are not good for the party and raise the prospect, I’d suggest, of anti-UKIP tactical voting with people not supporting their allegiance but the party most able to beat Farage’s party. It was suggested that this might have happened in the Newark by-election in June.

Several people who were “on the ground” during that by-election have told me how they’d come across quite a level a “cross-over” voting for this purpose with ex-LD and even ex-LAB voters shifting to CON for the election to stop UKIP. We have seen this in the past where the BNP have been strong in a seat.

 

[brogdale]

I really haven't seen any publicly published YG polling for that date that includes those questions. Maybe it was part of some private polling? tbh the results don't look very surprising given that (when the fieldwork would have been undertaken) UKIP were a young, untested party with no MPs and a leader who has described their previous manifesto as "drivel".

It was polling for the "Economist". Nuff said.

 

[Lo Siento.]

That's push-polling by the look of it, although I think the other questions would need to be seen to judge whether it's a fair survey of attitudes to all the parties. Who paid for it? Crosby?

Not that weird an outcome in any case. 25% is more or less the ceiling for similar parties on the continent.

 

[ViolentPanda]

I won't prove you wrong but we have been here before; Ugandan Asians leading to rivers of blood, West Indian muggers, Irish bomb makers and more recently the scrounging refugees. The largest groups of immigrants are from India and Pakistan but that doesn't even seem to even be an issue anymore (in fact UKIP is open to more immigration from decent Commonwealth chaps over EU criminals). So I can't really see Gordon riots against Polish bar staff and Lithuanian farm workers on the horizon.

Well, for a start, no member of The Lords would risk their arse directly inciting a mob nowadays.

 

[nino_savatte]

I don't know what Farage has been smoking, but he reckons he stands a good chance in Scotland's 'rust belt'.
http://www.scotsman.com/news/politi...-target-rust-belt-seats-in-scotland-1-3570714

I've got more chance succeeding to the throne of HMP United Kingdom than he has taking Labour seats in Scotland.

 

[nino_savatte]

The UKIP candidate for Basildon and East Thurrock has been mysteriously deselected. Tom Pride reckons it's because the Kippers have managed to persuade another MP to defect.
http://www.yourthurrock.com/UKIP-candidate-Kerry-Smith-selected/story-23226874-detail/story.html

 

[brogdale]

I don't know what Farage has been smoking, but he reckons he stands a good chance in Scotland's 'rust belt'.
http://www.scotsman.com/news/politi...-target-rust-belt-seats-in-scotland-1-3570714

I've got more chance succeeding to the throne of HMP United Kingdom than he has taking Labour seats.

Meanwhile, back on earth...Smithson has graphed Ashcroft's latest (marginals) polling analysis showing where UKIP support is coming from...

That's from a sample size of 11k.

 

[nino_savatte]

Meanwhile, back on earth...Smithson has graphed Ashcroft's latest (marginals) polling analysis showing where UKIP support is coming from...

That's from a sample size of 11k.

I've edited my post to say "Labour seats in Scotland". I reckon the SNP will have those.