UK election poll: Islington North

[PR1Berske]

Based on the most recent discussions over on the Jeremy Corbyn thread I'm minded to test the waters.

Corbyn is the Independent candidate in Islington North.

YouGov has Labour holding the seat, ElectionMaps has Corbyn winning it.

But what say the forum? Here's our chance to test our gut feeling.

 

[Rimbaud]

I voted Corbyn GAIN just cos I'd like to see that happen but I have no idea how likely it actually is...

 

[Silas Loom]

Voting Corbyn gain because I think mischievous Tories will vote alongside Corbynites and the local Labour GOTV operation will be lacklustre. But I wouldn’t be amazed by a Labour hold.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Voted Corbyn gain. It will be pretty close probably, but there is historical precedent.

 

[andysays]

Voting Corbyn gain because I think mischievous Tories will vote alongside Corbynites and the local Labour GOTV operation will be lacklustre. But I wouldn’t be amazed by a Labour hold.

The Tory vote share in 2019 was barely 10%, so I don't think "mischievous Tories" are a demographic which will make much difference to the result

 

[kebabking]

Corbyn win, by a large slice.

 

[Silas Loom]

The Tory vote share in 2019 was barely 10%, so I don't think "mischievous Tories" are a demographic which will make much difference to the result

If the majority is small, then all switchers will have played a part.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

The Tory vote share in 2019 was barely 10%, so I don't think "mischievous Tories" are a demographic which will make much difference to the result

And following national trends, a chunk of those will vote Labour this time.

Corbyn needs to take around 55% or more of the labour vote to win. On the Corbyn thread are lists of comparable historical situations. I'll be amazed if Corbyn takes less than 40% of the labour vote. He could take two thirds. That's my predicted range.

 

[andysays]

If the majority is small, then all switchers will have played a part.

I look forward to the post election analysis of the "mischievous Tories" vote

 

[cesare]

He's been their MP since 1983 I think? They're probably happier with him than.Labour.

 

[Silas Loom]

He's been their MP since 1983 I think? They're probably happier with him than.Labour.

Very transient population. As with anywhere in central London.

 

[Pickman's model]

Very transient population. As with anywhere in central London.

Perhaps you could post something to show us the level of population change

 

[The39thStep]

Labour win. Labour have turned the Labour Party into a winning team , they are 20 points ahead, backed by big business, mainstream media, political pundits and celebrities and have a party machine. Unthinkable that they can't beat an old bloke with an allotment accused of being a Cold War spy and IRA sympathiser who has never visited the Falklands.

 

[JimW]

I look forward to the post election analysis of the "mischievous Tories" vote

What if they're shy and mischievous?

 

[Plumdaff]

Corbyn GAIN. No-one's factored in the influence of Big Jam.

 

[cesare]

Very transient population. As with anywhere in central London.

The transient population seems to have consistently voted for him for the past 40+ years.

 

[inva]

Corbyn GAIN. No-one's factored in the influence of Big Jam.

Wouldn't Big Jam be against Corbyn?

"Home preserving is killing the jam industry" etc

 

[andysays]

What if they're shy and mischievous?

Or even shy, mischievous and transient?

I'm sure silas has got it all mapped out...

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Very transient population. As with anywhere in central London.

Around 40% of the population lives in social housing, most of them with secure long-term tenancies, so not so transient. But as noted on the Corbyn thread, he has historically been particularly popular among young private renters, of whom there are also many in the area.

 

[marty21]

He is supposed to be a decent Constituency MP. Labour shouldn't have kicked him out imo, and I hope he does win the seat - doesn't matter too much in the grand scheme .

 

[Pickman's model]

He is supposed to be a decent Constituency MP. Labour shouldn't have kicked him out imo, and I hope he does win the seat - doesn't matter too much in the grand scheme .

A nice punch in the face for shammer

 

[rasputin]

I suspect tactical voting will swing it for Corbyn. Added to his undoubted personal following in the constituency.

 

[rasputin]

He is supposed to be a decent Constituency MP. Labour shouldn't have kicked him out imo, and I hope he does win the seat - doesn't matter too much in the grand scheme .

Agree.

If he wins, Islington North will continue to have an outstanding constituency MP. And he will carry on being invisible in the House of Commons, just as he has for most of the past 40 years.

 

[The39thStep]

Agree.

If he wins, Islington North will continue to have an outstanding constituency MP. And he will carry on being invisible in the House of Commons, just as he has for most of the past 40 years.

I've never really followed Corbyns activity in the House of Commons so any data you have say on number of written questions, early day motions, speeches, voting and attendance over the past 40 years that led you to your conclusion that he has been invisible would be most welcome.

 

[StoneRoad]

Although I sat on the fence in the poll, I suspect it will be a Corbyn GAIN as he's been a good MP for his constituents and that will probably pull in more votes than the Labour Party will get.
JC is obv too left-wing for Starmer, as well as any of the other shenanigans.

Must have a check to see who else is standing ...

 

[rasputin]

I've never really followed Corbyns activity in the House of Commons so any data you have say on number of written questions, early day motions, speeches, voting and attendance over the past 40 years that led you to your conclusion that he has been invisible would be most welcome.

I refer you to Neil Kinnocks comments here.

this guy, by the time he became leader of the party, had been 33 years, a third of a century, In Parliament. There is no Jeremy Corbyn Private Members bill. There is no memorable question or speech in a debate. There is no evidence of presence on a Select Committee or a Standing Committee. All Jeremy did for 33 years - doubtlessly serve his constituency, fine, great - [was to] go around groups of people who already agreed with him."

 

[The39thStep]

I refer you to Neil Kinnocks comments here.

I'd rather you didn't tbh .

So that's the basis for your claim, a quote from Neil 'Scab' Kinnock?

 

[Kid_Eternity]

Labour hold, it will be a reduced majority and close.

 

[rasputin]

So that's the basis for your claim, a quote from Neil 'Scab' Kinnock?

He makes a number of claims that are factual, not opinions, and are easily fact-checked.

There has never been a Corbyn Private Members bill.
There is no evidence of his having participated in a Commons Select Committee.
There is no evidence of his having participated in a Commons Standing Committee.

These at at the core of Parliament's work to produce good legislation. If you really want to discredit Kinnock, drop the name-calling and prove one or more of those claims wrong.

 

[Serge Forward]

He makes a number of claims that are factual, not opinions, and are easily fact-checked.

There has never been a Corbyn Private Members bill.
There is no evidence of his having participated in a Commons Select Committee.
There is no evidence of his having participated in a Commons Standing Committee.

These at at the core of Parliament's work to produce good legislation. If you really want to discredit Kinnock, drop the name-calling and prove one or more of those claims wrong.

Well that's not true because that CPS footage from the Channel 4 interview with Starmer shows him participating in what seems to be either a select or standing committee.