"the UK is finished"

[Bernie Gunther]

<snip>

And yes I know our prosperity has come at the expense of many less fortunate folks throughout the world, and that even in the UK the benefits of prosperity have fallen to fewer and fewer people in recent decades, but none of that is the fault of my generation. My generation has been raised to be guilty, obedient, avaricious and afraid. We have been designed and crafted as little units of productivity and now we don't even get to serve that laughable purpose. We are to be denied not only a chance to achieve the illusory, exploitative prosperity Britain is so famous for, but any chance to achieve prosperity according to our own definitions and on our own terms. Even in crisis the system will not readily squander its past gains to the people, still we will be denied the right to live off the land, still we will be denied the right to work for ourselves and our communities rather than for the profits of others. Still we will live under the control of a state that governs, when all is said and done, through violence and the threat of violence. I don't pity myself, there are still billions of humans in a worse position than me, but still I reserve the right to feel angry and betrayed.

Quite ...

 

[bluestreak]

*shrugs*

We'll survive, we always have. The sky isn't falling. Except environmentally, of course. But we all know that's not important.

 

[goebfwai]

Get your money out and invest in where?

Dubai?
United States?
Spain?
Bulgaria?

Maybe Germany?

And the people buying gold? I just don't get it. When you look at a graph of the gold price over the past few decades, there has been a stratospheric increase in a few short years from about $300 an ounce to $900. What goes up surely must come down? It seems to me the gold price rise is just another bubble. It's a flight to safety, as it's obviously got a more solid internationally portable and tradable value. It's certainly worth more than a collapsed non-bailed out banks banknote, a collapsed companies shares or a Madoff investment receipt, but once the sellers start to exceed buyers the price will drop. Gold's value, beyond that of bullion/a flight to safety, is also intimately dependent on consumer demand for products made out of gold. I can't see during a severe recession lasting years there will be much demand for gold in the retail world. And there are High Street jewellery chains that have already collapsed.

 

[elbows]

I think part of the appeal of gold is its long history, the fact humans have seen value in it for so long. And the fact that it doesnt need to rely on elaborate structures to exist.

All the same, there is always the possibility of governments confiscating gold, there is no truly secure option.

I sometimes kick myself because after reading a load of stuff around 2003-2004 I decided I should turn my small amount of spare cash (which is much smaller than my non-house-related debt) into gold. But I didnt, and Ive watched the price soar ever since.

Yes the price of gold can go down as well as up, and as its risen so much in recent years there may be a possibility it is peaking. But its still tempting because people are so unsure about currencies right now. Gold like so much else is priced in dollars, so if sterling totally collapses against the dollar, those who have turned their sterling into gold will be protected against this sudden loss of value of their savings. This has already happened to an extent, we've already fallen quite far against the dollar as you know. If sterling totally collapsed then we could be talking about people with no gold being wiped out whilst those with gold would be saved. I assume gold also protects against hyperinflation.

I feel I should put my money where my mouth is on this one, but for some reason I dont, oh how I will hate myself if I lose what little I have whilst retaining my debts.

 

[Dr Jon]

And the people buying gold? I just don't get it. When you look at a graph of the gold price over the past few decades, there has been a stratospheric increase in a few short years from about $300 an ounce to $900. What goes up surely must come down? It seems to me the gold price rise is just another bubble. It's a flight to safety, as it's obviously got a more solid internationally portable and tradable value. It's certainly worth more than a collapsed non-bailed out banks banknote, a collapsed companies shares or a Madoff investment receipt, but once the sellers start to exceed buyers the price will drop. Gold's value, beyond that of bullion/a flight to safety, is also intimately dependent on consumer demand for products made out of gold. I can't see during a severe recession lasting years there will be much demand for gold in the retail world. And there are High Street jewellery chains that have already collapsed.

The smart folk bought gold when Gurning Gonad sold off our reserves at rock-bottom prices.

 

[rhod]

"Financial Crisis Expert" Dr Joern Berninger declares

 

[Dr Jon]

"Financial Crisis Expert" Dr Joern Berninger declares

sub-prime Minister Gordon Brown

PMSL


link

 

[rhod]

Yeah, you can tell he's a real fan of Herr Braun can't you

 

[Barking_Mad]

I think back to anti-capitalist demos and the sneering reaction of people, politicians and the media towards people on it. They laughed whilst pointing to "how well off we all were" and how anyone could protest about having such fantastic lifestyles.

 

[Bernie Gunther]

Let's look on it as an opportunity.

 

[8ball]

Let's look on it as an opportunity.

Oh, don't start that again . . .

 

[Bernie Gunther]

What else can we do if we're not to just retreat into defeatism?

The capitalists have fucked it up completely, we are going to suffer for their screw-ups while our government subsidises them with our taxes and our children's and grandchildren's taxes.

We have to do something else and there's no better time to get started on it.

 

[8ball]

What else can we do if we're not to just retreat into defeatism?

We could hang all the bankers from lamp posts . .

 

[Bernie Gunther]

As long as we compost them properly afterwards, I have no serious objection to that proposal.

 

[8ball]

As long as we compost them properly afterwards, I have no serious objection to that proposal.

Fair enough - I'm in, then.

 

[david dissadent]

What else can we do if we're not to just retreat into defeatism?

An honest thought and question, but is there any point to encouraging people to rejoin the labour party, to take back the agenda by changing who gets nominated to stand for elections? Its not to gain political power this parliment or even the next one, but it is the fastest means I can think of off rebuilding a liberal and or socialist alternative.

Unless I miss my guess, This crisis is the begining not the cumulation of problems....

The capitalists have fucked it up completely

Britain is a democracy. People voted for these policies for decades. People bought there council houses and flogged them for money, people bought into the property ladder, people happily burnt carbon and whore cloths made in sweat shops..... its not popular but I think our best way of getting out of this mess is starting by people admitting they contributed to it. Me included. Too often I talk a good game about buying No Sweat clothing and going low carbon and not doing enough.

we are going to suffer for their screw-ups while our government subsidises them with our taxes and our children's and grandchildren's taxes.

We are more likely to suffer by inflation than tax.

 

[SpookyFrank]

What else can we do if we're not to just retreat into defeatism?

The capitalists have fucked it up completely, we are going to suffer for their screw-ups while our government subsidises them with our taxes and our children's and grandchildren's taxes.

We have to do something else and there's no better time to get started on it.

Despite many of my posts on this and other threads, I remain optimistic that if ever there was an opportunity for us to put our heads together and come up with a saner, fairer, simpler and less destructive way of living then that time is now. The scenery is coming down all around us and it is becoming harder by the day for our masters to conceal from us the nature of the beast they serve. What we need now is not just new ideas but new priorities and new principles, we need to start living for the sake of living instead of living according to the whims of the fickle avatars of greed and control.

 

[goebfwai]

All the same, there is always the possibility of governments confiscating gold, there is no truly secure option.

I sometimes kick myself because after reading a load of stuff around 2003-2004 I decided I should turn my small amount of spare cash (which is much smaller than my non-house-related debt) into gold. But I didnt, and Ive watched the price soar ever since.

I feel I should put my money where my mouth is on this one, but for some reason I dont, oh how I will hate myself if I lose what little I have whilst retaining my debts.

Life, the mania of markets, human affairs can be quixotic affairs. Life is full of what if's. When to follow what everyone else is doing and when to be contrarian? In a mood of national economic panic it is never easy to discern the path that is right. Personally, I think that cultivating the land and promoting it amongst communities is the surest bet out there. With rising sea levels and land masses receding (and changing precipiation patterns meaning the arid is becoming fertile and the fertile becoming arid in many areas) there clearly not making any more land. Growing real living natural things also teaches people skills transferable to business and commerce, about sustainable, organic growth and the cycles of nature and sustainability.

The best, healthiest and tastiest return on capital people will get is on the few pounds a year it costs to rent a council allotment or the minimal expense to convert their gardens at home into kitchen gardens. Anything that reduces reliance on high carbon footprint, fertilised imported food (reduces balance of trade deficit & dependence on oil) is a plus.

Breaking free from the world of more, a centuries old culture, and being satisfied with a world of enough (and that's if we're lucky!) is going to be a big challenge in the coming years and decades, rich and poor alike.

 

[Divisive Cotton]

I heard an interview with Jim Rogers on the BBC World Service last night and he denied that his comments on sterling were connected with any buying and selling that he is currently involved in

He also laid into those that Barack Obama has chosen has his economic advisers as being part of the problem rather than being part of a solution - I can't remember the names he gave but it was, So-and-so has gotten it wrong 15 years in a row what makes Obama think he'll get it right this year?

 

[g force]

But he would say that wouldn't he. He's got enough of a rep that no one would believe a word he says. Much like the Economic advisor for UBS on Newsnight talking about how "obvious" the problems were, so "obvious" in fact that UBS ploughed money in liek everyone else and has lost billions too. Opinions after all are like arseholes....

I'd love to think this whole sorry charade would make things change from the obvious political changes through to realising investment is needed now in green technology, eating seasonal vegetables rather than importing etc. Sadly, I fear there's a complete and utter lack of will of the populace to change their lifecycles to that degree.

 

[goebfwai]

"And Britain’s plunging pound, unpopular though it is, may turn out to have been a very good thing."

Paul Krugman

Why would be be saying that?

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/01/19/the-pain-in-spain/

 

[Dr Jon]

... The best, healthiest and tastiest return on capital people will get is on the few pounds a year it costs to rent a council allotment or the minimal expense to convert their gardens at home into kitchen gardens. Anything that reduces reliance on high carbon footprint, fertilised imported food (reduces balance of trade deficit & dependence on oil) is a plus ...

Yeah, forget gold - invest in tools for self-sufficiency!

 

[Dr Jon]

Sadly, I fear there's a complete and utter lack of will of the populace to change their lifecycles to that degree.

You mean lifestyles???

Like the government, many folk are still clinging to the now decomposing corpse of consumer / capitalism, hoping that it can be resuscitated and the good old days will return. They won't.

There will be more enthusiasm for sustainable self-reliance when the supermarket shelves are bare and what there is is unaffordable. Unfortunately, that will most likely be too late to make the change to alternatives. Start now!

 

[Bernie Gunther]

Why would be be saying that?

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/01/19/the-pain-in-spain/

Well, he presumably thinks that it puts us in a more competitive export position, which might be nice if we still made anything useful in quantity post-Thatcher.

 

[tangentlama]

If sterling is fucked, can we join the EU monetary system soon as our currencies are level with each other?

 

[Skimix]

I don't see the decline in sterling as a huge problem for people living in the UK at the moment (a complete collapse is a different matter).

Sterling has been overvalued for a while and given the falls in interest rates the fall isn't unexpected. It makes our exports more competitive and imports more expensive so that will help the balance of payments. People will buy less crap they don't need. It will be more expensive to go abroad so people will holiday in the UK, more foreigners will come here and spend money.

 

[g force]

If sterling is fucked, can we join the EU monetary system soon as our currencies are level with each other?

Err,,,,have you seen the Euro - Sterling rate at the moment. If we entered now we'd be in a terrible position. Sure we'd have a more stable currency (at the moment) but prices would rise across the board.

 

[Skimix]

Well, he presumably thinks that it puts us in a more competitive export position, which might be nice if we still made anything useful in quantity post-Thatcher.

This is true and something we need to fix. One of the most intelligent comments I've seen on here was when someone said we don't have a knowledge economy, Germany has a knowledge economy. We need more precision engineering, biotech, software etc. Rolls Royce is a good example of a company that we need more of.

We can't compete with China when it comes to making mass-produced widgets so we need to add more value. Plus bit of rebalancing from Financial Services would be an excellent thing, perhaps some of those physics, maths and engineering graduates might consider careers outside the city now.

And that comes from someone who works in the City

 

[kyser_soze]

I think everyone needs to calm the fuck down. It's interesting seeing herd mentality and publicaiton bias manifesting themselves in the mutiltude of threads about the economy here at the moment.

Any bearish story is held up as truth and endlessly extrapolated on, anything remotely bullish or even neutral is disregarded.

Lets take a step back - up until the banks' announcement on Monday, Sterling was recovering against the €&$; the ban on short selling was lifted, all the banks took huge hits on their share prices, the govt has to step in to shore the whole thing up again, the £ drops again. The question to be raised is how much of this is short term hits, and how much is structural.

I mean, in the same link list as the comments by Rogers, there's this:

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/4d165bd8-e7f6-11dd-b2a5-0000779fd2ac.html

Although investors demand higher yields on government debt than in Germany, they are more willing to hold UK government and corporate paper than they were in October. The trade position is improving and with oil prices falling, a fiscal stimulus and substantial state support for banking, Britain is about to enjoy the most powerful fillip the economy has seen.

The truth lies somewhere in the middle. A weak economy is caught between powerful recessionary and expansionary forces. But is there anything in the rumours Britain or the government is going bust?

The economic data published on Wednesday were poor. Unemployment, measured by the claimant count, rose 78,000 in December and economists expect almost 700,000 more to join the dole queues this year.

Over the past 12 months, public sector net borrowing was just shy of £70bn and economists expect it to rise to more than £124bn in 2009-10. This huge figure excludes the amount that needs to be funded by bond sales with the public sector net cash requirement rising by £44bn in December alone.

But for all the bad news on jobs and borrowing, the figures so far are not materially worse than the government forecast in November. Nothing in the borrowing figures has yet made Britain more likely to default than it was then.

The new taxpayer liabilities of the banking system are still manageable, says Ben Broadbent of Goldman Sachs. On Wednesday, he attempted to quantify the degree of extra risk being taken by the government in its actions to support banks. If things go badly – taxpayers have to fork out for 20 per cent losses on troubled secured assets and 70 per cent on unsecured assets – he estimates a bill of £120bn or 8 per cent of national income.

 

[SpookyFrank]

This is true and something we need to fix. One of the most intelligent comments I've seen on here was when someone said we don't have a knowledge economy, Germany has a knowledge economy. We need more precision engineering, biotech, software etc. Rolls Royce is a good example of a company that we need more of.

We can't compete with China when it comes to making mass-produced widgets so we need to add more value. Plus bit of rebalancing from Financial Services would be an excellent thing, perhaps some of those physics, maths and engineering graduates might consider careers outside the city now.

And that comes from someone who works in the City

As a science graduate who has only ever been offered jobs in marketing, banking, whatever the fuck PriceWaterhouse Coopers does etc, I wholeheartedly agree. I would, quite literally, rather die than do any of these jobs so I've been a very poor individual since leaving university

Oh, and Rolls Royce is not the sort of company we need more of. Rolls Royce make things that disreputable regimes from various corners of the globe use to kill people. Prosperity earned from human suffering is not a good thing.