The Scottish independence referendum polling thread

[Maurice Picarda]

A £400k bet was placed on "No" this week. It certainly helps when no less a figure than JK Rowling calls you splitters a bunch of Voldemortists.

 

[DairyQueen]

In both cases from what I have seen (including speaking to RIC activists in Scotland) it seems that they are pinning all their hopes on independence in a way that precludes any real possiblilty of change as part of Britain.

Well, for me I do think I will become much more active in Scottish politics in the event of a Yes. The UK is thoroughly undemocratic, and independence is the only real way Scots can bring real change to Britain.

I think this is true for every area except London (that strong decentralisation movements are the only way smaller regions can exert any influence). If Londoners came out and demanded change, they'll get something and so they would have to lead any mass movement.

Scots can be ignored, we are miles away and a 'special case' when it suits Westminster (and an 'integral part' of Britain for the purpose of the referendum campaign). Also, with the Tories really wanting to undermine devolution, I think if there is a No, we could be looking at a very messy Anglo-Scottish relationship over the course of decades.

 

[DairyQueen]

A £400k bet was placed on "No" this week. It certainly helps when no less a figure than JK Rowling calls you splitters a bunch of Voldemortists.

Saw a good post on facebook... "No surprise Rowling supports No, she's been peddling fiction for years."

 

[William of Walworth]

The UK is thoroughly undemocratic, and independence is the only real way Scots can bring real change to Scotland.

Corrected for you

Far from convinced there'll be any positive changes for the rest of the UK if Scotland goes yes. The reverse if anything, as I fear it.

 

[brogdale]

Getting closer....

Two new referendum polls this weekend see the gap between YES and NO getting narrower. ICM for Scotland on Sunday has, after the exclusion of DKs:-

YES up 3 to 45% with NO down 3 to 55%.

The Panelbase poll for YES Scotland, reported earlier, had a 4% gap:-

Yes 48% and No 52%.

1. 
   A feature of both polls is that women are becoming less hostile to the notion of independence. They are still less enthusiastic than man but the gap is closing.

 

[DairyQueen]

Corrected for you

Far from convinced there'll be any positive changes for the rest of the UK if Scotland goes yes. The reverse if anything, as I fear it.

I think there would be beneficial changes for the rest of the UK.

http://www.conservativehome.com/the...uld-cameron-resign-if-scotland-votes-yes.html

 

[Sue]

The latest shenanigans for those who haven't been following things very closely.

Kevin McKenna's move from very anti to pro is also interesting to note.

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/jun/14/better-together-mistakes-scottish-independence

 

[Pickman's model]

 

[brogdale]

If, like me, you live if fUK*...the only way to watch tonight's jockdebate is here...apparently.

* "future UK" aka rUK

 

[The Pale King]

STV player seems to be down...I am getting no joy anyway

 

[brogdale]

STV player seems to be down...I am getting no joy anyway

Snap.
Crap innit...all of us in fUK can't even hear/see the debate.

 

[The Pale King]

Snap.
Crap innit...all of us in fUK can't even hear/see the debate.

It's shit! Surely they could've foreseen there'd be a huge amount of interest, even shared with a few other sites...I am getting by on newspaper liveblogs, doesn't look like they're gonna get it fixed ...Cock up or conspiracy?

 

[TheHoodedClaw]

It's shit! Surely they could've foreseen there'd be a huge amount of interest, even shared with a few other sites...I am getting by on newspaper liveblogs, doesn't look like they're gonna get it fixed ...Cock up or conspiracy?

This works http://zattoo.com/watch/stv Wouldn't use an email address you care about to register though

 

[The Pale King]

This works http://zattoo.com/watch/stv Wouldn't use an email address you care about to register though

Cheers

 

[brogdale]

Fucking hell; already regretting tuning in.

 

[The Pale King]

Fucking hell; already regretting tuning in.

me n aw - like Sturgeon v Lamont round two so far.

 

[Ponyutd]

"the Scotch"

 

[brogdale]

"the Scotch"

Slange Var

 

[nino_savatte]

Or slàinte mhòr/mhath

 

[brogdale]

Or slàinte mhòr/mhath

So that's a double?

 

[nino_savatte]

So that's a double?

Why not? Mine's a single malt. I'm rather partial to Islay whiskies.

 

[brogdale]

Why not? Mine's a single malt. I'm rather partial to Islay whiskies.

You like it peaty, eh? I tend to stick to the more accessible Highland malts.

 

[nino_savatte]

You like it peaty, eh? I tend to stick to the more accessible Highland malts.

Bruichladdich is less peaty but yes, I quite like the peaty ones. That said, I quite like Speyside malts too (but not Glenfiddich).

 

[brogdale]

So Salmond fucked up a bit?

Certainly seemed a bit un-hinged in the small section I was able to catch once STV had sorted itself out.

The immediate polling (from Anthony @ YG)..

UPDATE: ICM’s instant poll crowns Darling the winner – 56% for Darling, 44% for Alex Salmond. The figures are, incidentally, very close to the sort of NO/YES figures ICM report in referendum voting intentions. We’ll know properly when we see ICM’s tables, but I suspect we may find that people who were voting YES anyway thought Salmond won, people who were voting NO anyway thought Darling won.

UPDATE2: Full figures including don’t knows were Darling 47%, Salmond 37%, Don’t Know 15%. Sample size was 512.

UPDATE3: Tabs are here. People’s perceptions of who won were, as suspected, largely in line with their pre-existing dispositions towards independence, though not entirely. Amongst people who were voting NO before the debate people thought Darling won by 83% to 6%. Amongst pre-debate YES voters people thought Salmond won by 72% to 16%. Amongst people who said they were don’t knows, Salmond was slightly ahead – 44% to 36% (albeit, there were only 63 don’t knows, so we’re talking about the difference of 4 or 5 people). Bottom line is that there was no big knockout blow here – the large majority of both sides thought their own “champion” won, don’t knows were pretty evenly split.

 

[AnandLeo]

Simple fallacy in the Scotland independence debate that neither party is addressing is that; the objective of campaign for Scottish independence is separation from British rule from London and incorporating the awed European Union rule from Brussels – notwithstanding the contention to retain the currency of Sterling Pound.

 

[danny la rouge]

Simple fallacy in the Scotland independence debate that neither party is addressing is that; the objective of campaign for Scottish independence is separation from British rule from London and incorporating the awed European Union rule from Brussels – notwithstanding the contention to retain the currency of Sterling Pound.

Could you insert some grammar, please, so that we can understand your point?

 

[gosub]

I think it means its a bit of a misnomer calling it Independence to want most of your laws carved out in Brussels and London dictating fiscal policy. Which apparently no one is addressing.....only they are.

 

[brogdale]

I think it means its a bit of a misnomer calling it Independence to want most of your laws carved out in Brussels and London dictating fiscal policy. Which apparently no one is addressing.....only they are.

Yeah, but it does give the jocks the right to be governed by tories that are not called tories.

 

[brogdale]

Yes have clawed it back pretty much to where they were before the TV debates...

albeit with a pollster more favourable to Yes...

As can be seen the NO lead is back down to where it was before the first debate in early August – a 6% margin for NO.

The YES campaign will be delighted to be making up the ground lost – the big question is whether they can go forward from here.

 

[Spanky Longhorn]

Who has the shy vote in Scotland at the moment? I suspect given the buzz and enthusiasm from the Yes camp, No voters will be far shyer when it comes to polling? If there is a shy vote at all.