The Scottish independence referendum polling thread

[kebabking]

And all the last-minute impulse voters are going to vote "Yes." I reckon Salmond's got it in the bag.

i think the same, its not what i want, but from what i see the 'no's are already committed while pretty much anyone who 'doesn't know', but who subsequently decides will be deciding 'yes' - add that to the utterly woeful Better Together campaign, and the hugely effective polictical machine that is the SNP - and i think its going to be divorce.

 

[butchersapron]

Split the DK's. NO wins. What is the compelling reason why DK becomes YES? Why wasn't it there before. DK's are, at this stage - after a year of PR, conservatives (or they wouldn't be DKs), so more likely to go NO.

 

[brogdale]

Split the DK's. NO wins. What is the compelling reason why DK becomes YES? What wasn't it there before. DK's are, at this stage - after a year of PR, conservatives (or they wouldn't be DKs), so more likely to go NO.

Unless folk are suggesting there's a "shy Yes" voter phenomena happening when polled?

 

[butchersapron]

Unless folk are suggesting there's a "shy Yes" voter phenomena happening when polled?

Any shy vote would be the other way i think - which ones the youthful vibrant vote, the one you don't agree with and just nod as you walk by type vote?

 

[Favelado]

Unless folk are suggesting there's a "shy Yes" voter phenomena happening when polled?

It's not likely is it? People aren't likely to feel bad about admitting it - a la 1992 General Election exit poll fuck up.

 

[brogdale]

Any shy vote would be the other way i think - which ones the youthful vibrant vote, the one you don't agree with and just nod as you walk by type vote?

Maybe. I'm not really very clued up about the shy voter concept, but considering that the polling producing these numbers are almost all the product of internet panels or phone calls, it can't really be down to the psychology of wanting to give the ''correct answer'' to the pollster person. Maybe inherently conservative folk are embarrassed by their (nationalist) radicalism?

 

[kebabking]

Split the DK's. NO wins. What is the compelling reason why DK becomes YES? What wasn't it there before. DK's are, at this stage - after a year of PR, conservatives (or they wouldn't be DKs), so more likely to go NO.

i think its a psychological thing rather than a policy/political thing - the DK's are DK's because its too hard to make a decision either way (again, divorce..), and they've still got time to kick this unwelcome decision off into the long grass, but come polling day they won't have that option, they will, assuming they vote, have to make a decision, and i think the people (broadly) who do decide, and who then make the effort to go out to the polling station, will vote for something rather than against something.

does anyone know of any reseach into the DK's from previous elections - do they vote, do they vote in the same way as the rest of the popultion?

 

[butchersapron]

i think its a psychological thing rather than a policy/political thing - the DK's are DK's because its too hard to make a decision either way (again, divorce..), and they've still got time to kick this unwelcome decision off into the long grass, but come polling day they won't have that option, they will, assuming they vote, have to make a decision, and i think the people (broadly) who do decide, and who then make the effort to go out to the polling station, will vote for something rather than against something.

does anyone know of any reseach into the DK's from previous elections - do they vote, do they vote in the same way as the rest of the popultion?

It may well be a psychological thing - but to be DK a year after doesn't suggest an willingness to step gladsome into a bold new world. It suggests fears, conservatism (on the referendum) and a non-YES stickiness. What's going to make these DKs take a leap into the dark that they have shown themselves reluctant to take thus far?

 

[kebabking]

...What's going to make these DKs take a leap into the dark that they have shown themselves reluctant to take thus far?

i think actually your wording hits the nail on the head: in order to take a leap in the dark you need to get up off the chair - those who decide 'yes' 7.30pm on the 14th sept will jump up and go out to vote, those who either decide 'no', or still find it impossible to decide, will just stay at home.

i fully realise this is all very fluffy and not quite the empirical stuff you excell at, but i've just 'got a feeling'...

 

[brogdale]

does anyone know of any reseach into the DK's from previous elections - do they vote, do they vote in the same way as the rest of the popultion?

There is stuff out there, particularly referring to the 1992 polling issue, but it all tends to relate,obviously, to elections contested by parties, so very little of the analysis appears to cross-over very effectively to the rather unique case of the indyref.

 

[butchersapron]

There is stuff out there, particularly referring to the 1992 polling issue, but it all tends to relate,obviously, to elections contested by parties, so very little of the analysis appears to cross-over very effectively to the rather unique case of the indyref.

Yep, I think this is very much a non-precedent thing as regards modern polling.

 

[phildwyer]

What's going to make these DKs take a leap into the dark that they have shown themselves reluctant to take thus far?

The visercal, impulsive, irrational, romantic patriotism to which the Celts have shown themselves susceptible throughout history.

They might not express it to a pollster. But they will act on it. Want to bet?

 

[DotCommunist]

There is stuff out there, particularly referring to the 1992 polling issue, but it all tends to relate,obviously, to elections contested by parties, so very little of the analysis appears to cross-over very effectively to the rather unique case of the indyref.

this the first time the plebscite has been extended to 16+ as well? I think it is and thats going to be an unpredictable factor

 

[brogdale]

this the first time the plebscite has been extended to 16+ as well? I think it is and thats going to be an unpredictable factor

Good point. Looking at some of the tabs for Indyref polling, DK % are, unsurprisingly higher for the younger demographic cohorts. Interesting.

 

[DotCommunist]

Good point. Looking at some of the tabs for Indyref polling, DK % are, unsurprisingly higher for the younger demographic cohorts. Interesting.

I really don't know how to call the under 18 vote here- on the one hand there might be a tendency to vote tribal, split along rangers/Celtic/what mum and dad vote for/what my favourite newsmag advise/have read up and fuck the westminster dem lines (very simplistic descriptor but ykwim). Or perhaps it could go the other way and see that vote share going on gut and/or nationalist lines. Which would suggest DK's becoming 'yes' on the day.

However the chips do fall I'm fascinated to see how things pan out in the 16-18 vote share.

And maybe, just maybe if that vote share swings it significantly the age limit for GE might lower someday. I never understood how you are entitled to the lowest rate of min wage at 16 but not allowed to vote in the polity your labour funds till 18. Its undemocratic.

 

[brogdale]

This afternoon, we took the biggest bet we have fielded yet on YES in the Scottish Referendum, £5,000 at 3/1. That’s now 11/4 as a result. The bet was taken in one of our shops in Scotland. This will be a much bigger betting event than the Euros.

Ladbrokes

 

[butchersapron]

Oddly tiny amount - a mighty £15 000 profit!!!!

 

[brogdale]

So, a jock kipper...what impact will that have on SNP tactics and the ref itself?

 

[weepiper]

So, a jock kipper...what impact will that have on SNP tactics and the ref itself?

etc.

 

[weepiper]

Also, this facebook event has gained about 6 thousand attendees since yesterday

 

[brogdale]

Also, this facebook event has gained about 6 thousand attendees since yesterday

Good work Nigel.

 

[brogdale]

And the fall-out from the UKIP success continues....Darling again shows the deft touch of the 'No' campaign...

Alistair Darling, certainly seems to be fighting back in an interview with New Statesman editor Jason Cowley in this week's magazine. Darling decries Scotland's first minister Alex Salmond's "North Korean response" to Scottish Ukip voters, challenges him to a debate, and laments the "culture of intimidation" among Scottish nationalists.

Alex Salmond's behaving like former North Korean dictator Kim Jong-il

He said on the BBC that people voted Ukip in Scotland because English TV was being beamed into Scotland. This was a North Korean response. This is something that Kim Jong-il would say. And this is the same BBC for which we all pay our licence fee, and we all enjoy the national output as well as the Scottish output.

Should edge another few % towards 'Yes'.

 

[brogdale]

Oh yes, and I nearly forgot Monday's Ipsos MORI poll..

.......a new Scottish referendum poll from Ipsos MORI. Their topline voting intention figures were:-

YES 36%(+4), NO 54%(-3) – changes are since MORI’s last quarterly poll.

A movement towards YES, though MORI generally show one of the largest leads for NO, so even with that movement it leaves NO a chunky lead. Full details are here.

 

[redsquirrel]

And the fall-out from the UKIP success continues....Darling again shows the deft touch of the 'No' campaign...

Should edge another few % towards 'Yes'.

Salmond should dress like that just for the laughs.

 

[brogdale]

Breaking news from (PR) South Norwood....

http://www.croydonadvertiser.co.uk/...s-referendum/story-21176151-detail/story.html

THE South Norwood Tourist Board (SNTB) has announced a referendum over whether SE25 should leave Croydon - and join bonnie Scotland.

Associates of the SNTB have asked residents to vote on September 11 – at polling stations around South Norwood a week prior to the Scottish independence vote – on whether the area should go tartan.

Voters will also be asked if they want South Norwood to break away from Croydon entirely and if it should become the People’s Republic of South Norwood.

It is not thought Croydon Council is prepared to sanction the plans but the Advertiser understands the SNTB doesn’t really care either way.

 

[timoxensis]

let them go, i don't care...

 

[Frankie Jack]

let them go, i don't care...

I cannot tell you how relieved I am to read that.

 

[timoxensis]

Just my view lol..

I don't see how Scotland leaving the UK would damage England. It's just petty emotionalism not matter of fact...and the Union only came into being due to convenience. Scotland was a shitty colonial power and England feared a Franco-Scottish alliance if England went to war with France.

 

[Favelado]

Just my view lol..

I don't see how Scotland leaving the UK would damage England. It's just petty emotionalism not matter of fact...and the Union only came into being due to convenience. Scotland was a shitty colonial power and England feared a Franco-Scottish alliance if England went to war with France.

When you laughed out loud, was it a big one? Or just a chuckle? What type of laugh do you have? Is it like a Sid James filthy one or all haughty like a Blackadder 2 courtier?

Were you lying? Maybe you DIDN'T really laugh out loud.

Run us through how it really happened.

 

[Frankie Jack]

Just my view lol..

<snip> Scotland was a shitty colonial power and England feared a Franco-Scottish alliance if England went to war with France.

A shitty colonial power? Not sure whether to LOL or