The Scottish independence referendum polling thread
- Thread starter brogdale
- Start date
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
ska invita
back on the other side
id rather see a poll for people in scotland on that subject
weepiper
I fix the machines that fight climate change
Me too. It doesn't seem like people in England and Wales were seeing the same things that we were seeing up here.
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
I'd be interested in that too - and i'm sure we'll see something on those lines before too long. In fact i think i've seen some already - will check in a sec. But the thing is, you can't identify or highlight the differences in perception between people in scotland and people in england and wales without actually asking people in england and wales what they think.
frogwoman
No amount of cajolery...
I just read this butchersapron, weepiper et al about canvassing on both sides. Apparently heavily concentrated in cities.
https://loveandgarbage.wordpress.co...aaahhhhh-aaaalllllll-rrrriiiiigggghhhhtttttt/
https://loveandgarbage.wordpress.co...aaahhhhh-aaaalllllll-rrrriiiiigggghhhhtttttt/
weepiper
I fix the machines that fight climate change
I had a No canvasser knock at the door twice but no Yes canvassers. Shitloads, I mean reams of leaflets from both sides. I was never polled by any of the official polling companies.
Very interesting. I was never canvassed at home, nor was anyone I know in the vicinity. In the other thread I repeatedly reported a lack of people in the Better Together shop in Aberdeen. On the day of the vote, when I passed it, the Yes office was locked and shuttered. I emailed the Yes campaign with some questions and never heard back; they didn't even bother to put me on their mailing list. I emailed the Better Together campaign and they did reply, but again, I was not put on a mailing list.
free spirit
more tea vicar?
I think I made a comment on the night about this, that it looked to be a triumph of the combined campaigning experience of the lab, lib, con teams vs one experienced team for the SNP mixed in with lots of enthusiastic amateurs and an apparent belief that it could be won largely by social media.
Taking thousands of activists off the streets to protest at the BBC on probably the most important campaigning day of the entire campaign was one of the stupidest campaign decisions they could have made. Essentially surrendering the streets of the rest of Scotland to the No campaign on the last weekend before the vote, when each of those activists should have been being paired up with a couple of new volunteers and canvassed maybe half a million houses between them over that weekend.
DairyQueen
Well-Known Member
That is depressing. Really does show the impact of the media on public opinion.
nino_savatte
No pasaran!
That's topsy-turvy. It also shows what a good job the Unionist media did on people's perceptions.
toggle
wobbly
and that people in england and wales were more likely to be pro union. therefore seeing any discussion of a proposition they agreed with as positive and any discussion that attempted to change their opinion as bullying.
ska invita
back on the other side
i dont think its based on peoples perceptions, more on their preconceptions
id bet that the majority of english people can't fathom why Scotland would throw what it has in the union away for independence and think they got off very luckily by voting no.
that difference in perception is interesting to some extent, but if im being blunt about it, i dont really care what the people of rUK think about scottish independence - its really not up to us, the campaign took place out of sight of us to some extent, and if anything that poll suggests many people in the rUKs don't understand why so many people voted yes. sorry if that sounds condescending but i really dont think most people got it...sounds like a lot of people think they were bullied and duped into it
weepiper
I fix the machines that fight climate change
I agree that the BBC bias thing was a pointless diversion but would just point out that it wasn't an official yes campaign thing at all - it was something people organised themselves on facebook and twitter. So the people that attended were not necessarily people that would otherwise have been out chapping doors.
nino_savatte
No pasaran!
Yet none of these people would have dared ask themselves the question "what is the Union and why do we still have it"? None of these people even bother to ask "why is power so centralised"?
Polling companies, eh? They often ask the wrong questions.
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nino_savatte
No pasaran!
It's both, but in both cases there's a serious lack of critical thinking evident.
I'm doing battle with a unionist on Twitter and he's produced some of the most absurd arguments for the preservation of the union. One was "well, we all benefited from the Empire". The Empire's only true beneficiaries were the ruling class.
ska invita
back on the other side
yeah agree its both
free spirit
more tea vicar?
fair enough, but if they're willing to go out on a protest, then it's still an active supporter base that wasn't being put to work effectively for whatever reason.
DairyQueen
Well-Known Member
First poll since indy ref... No apparent Labour collapse, yet. SNP might be seeing a big rise in their vote at the expense of the Lib Dems at Westminster.
The polling was from a telephone poll of 871 Scottish adults by Survation, carried out on Friday.
2016 Scottish Parliament voting intention: (changes on 2011 election)
Conservative - 13% (-1)
Labour - 33% (+1)
Liberal Democrat - 3% (-5)
SNP - 49% (+4)
Another Party - 1% (nc)
2015 General elections voting intention (changes from 2010 election):
Conservative 18% (+1)
Labour 39% (-3)
Liberal Democrat 3% (-16)
SNP 35% (+15)
The polling was from a telephone poll of 871 Scottish adults by Survation, carried out on Friday.
2016 Scottish Parliament voting intention: (changes on 2011 election)
Conservative - 13% (-1)
Labour - 33% (+1)
Liberal Democrat - 3% (-5)
SNP - 49% (+4)
Another Party - 1% (nc)
2015 General elections voting intention (changes from 2010 election):
Conservative 18% (+1)
Labour 39% (-3)
Liberal Democrat 3% (-16)
SNP 35% (+15)
weepiper
I fix the machines that fight climate change
Sure. There's a difference between 'willing to go out in a big group where everyone agrees with you and shout' and 'willing to knock on a stranger's door and have them possibly be hostile or ask you questions you're not sure how to answer' though, isn't there.
Crikey
toggle
wobbly
certainly there is recognistion that it is becoming more centralised, but discussion tends to be along the lines of how much authority can be delegated to local councils, or whether regional assemblies are viable.
have you looked much at the debates surrounding gladston'es home rule bills? there is a lot of this that is no more than a replay
nino_savatte
No pasaran!
Not in any great detail but I take your point.
There's no reason why regional assemblies can't be viable but one thing that needs to go is the monarchy. I don't think we can have a truly modern system till they're abolished. One reason why the Police and Crime Commissioners have been such a flop is because it was a new-fangled role that was grafted onto a dying system (covered in sticking plasters).
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The irony is that of course the most centralising force in Scotland in recent years has been the SNP controlled Scottish government - look at their local government and police reorganisations.
free spirit
more tea vicar?
there is, but that's the support base that the yes campaign would have needed to have brought properly into the campaign if they stood half a chance of beating the combined electoral campaigning experience of the 3 other major parties in Scotland.
Also, I think I was getting mixed up between that bbc protest and the big official yes gathering on the eve of the referendum. Pulling 1600 activists off the streets for a rally on the evening of the referendum probably wasn't a good tactic either.
For all the talk about the yes campaign being grassroots etc from the outside, it doesn't look as if the official campaign really managed to tap into that grassroots support too well, and actually focus it into a proper campaigning machine. The supporters sections of the campaign website are pretty empty in the run up to the election, and the '45' facebook page has gained more support in 2 days than the yes page did in the entire campaign.
DairyQueen
Well-Known Member
Not really. It sounds like he was in a solid no area and no amount of canvassing would convince him or his neighbours otherwise. Maybe he was missed for a reason. His parents from Dumfriesshire were probably canvassed four times because there was a group of yes supporters covering a relatively large area with relatively fewer houses.
DairyQueen
Well-Known Member
The yes campaign generated more likes than David Cameron's page by the end of the referendum. Not sure why we are saying it was a poor campaign. They had the cards stacked against them and nearly won. That was a massive achievement. I think they had the right strategy. Maybe a bit more focus on canvassing, but not sure how much more they could have realistically have done. I think if we had just a couple of Scottish tabloids and a broadsheet daily we would have won.
Also, that poll showing yes on 51% probably mobilised the no support a bit on polling day.
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