The Scottish independence referendum polling thread

[William of Walworth]

Fair dos DQ (post 859). Feller was posting as a 'No' himself by the look of his blog.

I've been reading shedloads more generally about all the campaigns over the last few weeks, I'm nerdishly (over)fascinated by opinion polls and polling technicalities and how campaigns operate in that context.

I'm convinced (especially now ) that Yes was never really in the lead.

 

[8ball]

Interesting results from survation post-election polling (pdf) of people in england and wales:

The Yes campaign relied more on:
Bullying - 42%
Positivity - 25%
(DK) - 33%

The No campaign relied more on:
Bullying - 18%
Positivity - 47%
(DK) - 34%

That does seem to gel with what I've heard from people here in the Midlands. I can't comment on bullying unless you're counting veiled threats in the media rather than person-on-person stuff, but on the channels I was watching there was a lot of positivity on the Yes side and almost none on the No (not that it's easy to be positive from that side).

Was an equivalent poll done in Scotland?

 

[William of Walworth]

PS I agree it was a pretty big achevement for Yes, to have come so close to winning, but they were always up against it.

 

[free spirit]

The yes campaign generated more likes than David Cameron's page by the end of the referendum. Not sure why we are saying it was a poor campaign. They had the cards stacked against them and nearly won. That was a massive achievement. I think they had the right strategy. Maybe a bit more focus on canvassing, but not sure how much more they could have realistically have done. I think if we had just a couple of Scottish tabloids and a broadsheet daily we would have won.

Also, that poll showing yes on 51% probably mobilised the no support a bit on polling day.

The more I look into it, the more it really looks like they through it away by being shit at mobilising their support via social media.

Check out the official yes campaigns facebook page, it hasn't got a single event listed on it between the 28th August and 18th September. The main website has 55 events listed in total, which is utter shite for campaigns across 32 regions.

The yes campaign clearly won the battle on social media by a large margin, but it failed to translate that support into wider support across Scotland, I'm just interested in exploring how it managed to not convert that social media support into votes. To achieve that it would have needed to convert a good number of social media supporters into activists on the ground, and I can't see that it can be said to have been doing that as well as it could have when its social media and website events pages are so lacking in events for people to get involved with.

 

[redsquirrel]

First poll since indy ref... No apparent Labour collapse, yet. SNP might be seeing a big rise in their vote at the expense of the Lib Dems at Westminster.

The polling was from a telephone poll of 871 Scottish adults by Survation, carried out on Friday.

2016 Scottish Parliament voting intention: (changes on 2011 election)

Conservative - 13% (-1)
Labour - 33% (+1)
Liberal Democrat - 3% (-5)
SNP - 49% (+4)
Another Party - 1% (nc)



2015 General elections voting intention (changes from 2010 election):

Conservative 18% (+1)
Labour 39% (-3)
Liberal Democrat 3% (-16)
SNP 35% (+15)

IIRC that's pretty consistent with the pre-referendum polling for Scotland (which I can't seem to find now), SNP gaining at the expense of the LDs

 

[William of Walworth]

The more I look into it, the more it really looks like they through it away by being shit at mobilising their support via social media.

Check out the official yes campaigns facebook page, it hasn't got a single event listed on it between the 28th August and 18th September. The main website has 55 events listed in total, which is utter shite for campaigns across 32 regions.

The yes campaign clearly won the battle on social media by a large margin, but it failed to translate that support into wider support across Scotland, I'm just interested in exploring how it managed to not convert that social media support into votes. To achieve that it would have needed to convert a good number of social media supporters into activists on the ground, and I can't see that it can be said to have been doing that as well as it could have when its social media and website events pages are so lacking in events for people to get involved with.

Can it actually be that very traditional feet-on-the-ground polling day mobilising by the No 'machine' might have been more effective than predicted?

 

[leanderman]

IIRC that's pretty consistent with the pre-referendum polling for Scotland (which I can't seem to find now), SNP gaining at the expense of the LDs

It won't be long before LibDem support slips past zero and into negative territory

 

[free spirit]

Can it actually be that very traditional feet-on-the-ground polling day mobilising by the No 'machine' might have been more effective than predicted?

That's what it looks like, and i reckon that the yes campaign have misunderstood how social media should have been used, or at least they only used one part of the power of social media to directly spread their message via social media to those on social media, but a lot of that is merely preaching to the converted.

To have won, they'd have needed to convert that social media support base into a real physical boots on the ground campaign on a national level as they also needed to reach those who can't be reached by social media directly.

This was probably happening to some extent, but I don't see any evidence of the sort of nationally co-ordinated approach that would have been needed.

 

[DairyQueen]

The more I look into it, the more it really looks like they through it away by being shit at mobilising their support via social media.

Check out the official yes campaigns facebook page, it hasn't got a single event listed on it between the 28th August and 18th September. The main website has 55 events listed in total, which is utter shite for campaigns across 32 regions.

The yes campaign clearly won the battle on social media by a large margin, but it failed to translate that support into wider support across Scotland, I'm just interested in exploring how it managed to not convert that social media support into votes. To achieve that it would have needed to convert a good number of social media supporters into activists on the ground, and I can't see that it can be said to have been doing that as well as it could have when its social media and website events pages are so lacking in events for people to get involved with.

The idea was that they would leave local branches to sort out events and the like. Yes Scotland would facilitate events. Look at the local branches and some are still having events.

 

[DairyQueen]

Can it actually be that very traditional feet-on-the-ground polling day mobilising by the No 'machine' might have been more effective than predicted?

I really don't think so. Some areas were just never going to switch to yes, and so the canvassers probably did nothing but encourage them to vote. In many of the working-class areas, not all, the types of people being sent round by No probably benefited yes more than no.

 

[William of Walworth]

Would be interested to read a bit more about that TBH. Both campaigns made mistakes I'm sure.

 

[DairyQueen]

I just doubt you will find it. Yes Scotland people will be the best for this. You have to understand the big impact on the media, and how biased it actually was.

 

[butchersapron]

Revealed: Secret opinion poll convinced Alex Salmond he would pull off shock victory in independence referendum

ALEX Salmond was convinced he was on course for a historic referendum win right until the votes were counted, the Daily Record can reveal.

Private polling by a firm of election experts had the First Minister believing he would pull off a shock victory.

The nationalists had employed Canadian voter contact specialists First Contact to conduct secret opinion polling.

And an analysis of their findings by two leading academics in New York said the Yes campaign would win by 54 per cent to 46.

The SNP were widely thought to have the most sophisticated data-modelling system in the UK before the vote.

But it failed to call the referendum right. Salmond was devastated and announced his intention to step down as First Minister within hours .

The false impression caused by their internal polling meant the SNP leadership were confident of winning until the first local authority areas began declaring results early on Friday.

The Yes camp contacted a number of journalists at around 10pm on Thursday and gave details of a planned victory speech by Salmond.

The piece says revealed like the Record found this out - it's been talked of with links to articles on it on twitter for at least two days now.

 

[Wilf]

Revealed: Secret opinion poll convinced Alex Salmond he would pull off shock victory in independence referendum

The piece says revealed like the Record found this out - it's been talked of with links to articles on it on twitter for at least two days now.

It's astonishing if Salmond was as taken in by his pollsters as the piece suggests. It was obvious that Yes had lost momentum in the final week and that the Yes vote was probably overstated/a bit soggy round the edges. Just common sense should have told him he needed to be getting consistent poll leads to translate into an actual victory on the day. It will be interesting to see what trends and themes his pollsters were detecting - or how their models were working.

 

[butchersapron]

It's astonishing if Salmond was as taken in by his pollsters as the piece suggests. It was obvious that Yes had lost momentum in the final week and that the Yes vote was probably overstated/a bit soggy round the edges. Just common sense should have told him he needed to be getting consistent poll leads to translate into an actual victory on the day. It will be interesting to see what trends and themes his pollsters were detecting - or how their models were working.

I think he must have really believed it and that their exit and turn out canvasses supported it as well if they were setting up their victory speech interviews as the polls closed.

 

[DairyQueen]

... or he didn't, and knew No were more likely and the Record is spinning a bit here so we can embellish the narrative that Fleet Street and the BBC are desperately trying to get going.

 

[danny la rouge]

... or he didn't, and knew No were more likely and the Record is spinning a bit here so we can embellish the narrative that Fleet Street and the BBC are desperately trying to get going.

Well, who knows. But one thing I'm absolutely sure of is that both sides had given the press a preview of their likely victory speech before 10pm.

 

[DairyQueen]

I think no were more confident of victory, but there was a feeling in yes that we might do it. I know some activists were very confident, depending where they were, but they do not see the canvass returns. I think the postal voting was a bit dodgy, if I am honest. I think a lot of people who do not live and work in Scotland voted here, and there really needs to be better verification that I am who I say I am, where I say I am when I get a polling card. Not that would make a huge difference, but I know the extract of the electoral roll I was given had a lot of errors in it.

 

[danny la rouge]

I think the postal voting was a bit dodgy, if I am honest.

I don't buy that. Postal voters are older and more middle class, is all. There was no systematic fixing. (Just a handful of alleged frauds, but nothing statistically significant).

 

[butchersapron]

... or he didn't, and knew No were more likely and the Record is spinning a bit here so we can embellish the narrative that Fleet Street and the BBC are desperately trying to get going.

Has it become a point of principle for you exactly when Salmon knew YES had lost? Your posts since thursday have been an embarrassment. If any pro-independence stuff is based on the perspectives that you offer then it's already dead. I don't need to be - in your nationalistic language English or Scottish - to see that. Just politically aware. Any hope for the pro-independence movement lies in moving away from people like you and views that people like you hold.

 

[DairyQueen]

No, it has become a principle of me not to trust the Daily Record or to attach any authority to it. The opposite in fact. Nationalist? Get a grip, it is not nationalist to talk about Scots as a minority in the UK.

 

[Spanky Longhorn]

I think no were more confident of victory, but there was a feeling in yes that we might do it. I know some activists were very confident, depending where they were, but they do not see the canvass returns. I think the postal voting was a bit dodgy, if I am honest. I think a lot of people who do not live and work in Scotland voted here, and there really needs to be better verification that I am who I say I am, where I say I am when I get a polling card. Not that would make a huge difference, but I know the extract of the electoral roll I was given had a lot of errors in it.

This is absolutely disgusting and not surprising. It was the foreigners and the working people who are forced to work away that lost it eh? Nice.

What do you propose people use to provide better verification? Maybe everyone should have an ID card or maybe only people who can afford a license or a passport should be able to vote eh?

Or maybe you should just accept that 10% more Scottish people decided independence wasn't for them on the day.

 

[DairyQueen]

Eh? I never said they were foreigners, were not Scottish, I never even said they voted no.

 

[William of Walworth]

Well, who knows. But one thing I'm absolutely sure of is that both sides had given the press a preview of their likely victory speech before 10pm.

Had they both given any preview of their possible concession speeches though?

 

[toggle]

This is absolutely disgusting and not surprising. It was the foreigners and the working people who are forced to work away that lost it eh? Nice.

What do you propose people use to provide better verification? Maybe everyone should have an ID card or maybe only people who can afford a license or a passport should be able to vote eh?

Or maybe you should just accept that 10% more Scottish people decided independence wasn't for them on the day.

i wouldn't be surprised to hear about dodgy postal voting. round here, ti's second home owners plural voting.

 

[Spanky Longhorn]

Eh? I never said they were foreigners, were not Scottish, I never even said they voted no.

It's obvious what you meant though

 

[butchersapron]

Eh? I never said they were foreigners, were not Scottish, I never even said they voted no.

You didn't have to. Does Dog whistle racism +loonery =45. I do hope not.

 

[Spanky Longhorn]

i wouldn't be surprised to hear about dodgy postal voting. round here, ti's second home owners plural voting.

thats not dodgy though it's perfectly legal

 

[toggle]

thats not dodgy though it's perfectly legal

plural voting is not legal.

 

[butchersapron]

We're overloaded with evidence here tonight - let's do it slowly.

What's first?