The Scottish independence referendum polling thread

[Idris2002]

No. The English have more in common genetically with crabs than with Scottish people.

So that's what's under the kilt. . .

 

[treelover]

Last Sunday I made another visit to Scotland, where I’ve been working on a series of Guardian films titled Britain’s in Trouble, which will appear online next week. I started in Falkirk, at a yes meeting on an out-of-town housing estate. The star turns were the pro-independence actor Elaine C Smith, and Alan Bissett, a loquacious playwright and author who grew up locally. The event drew well over 300 people

http://www.theguardian.com/commenti...as-usual-finished-falkirk-clacton-disaffectedsimial

Of course its not going to be genetic or something, but I do think something has changed here over time that will make it difficult to see a similar phenomenon where 300 people turn up for a political meeting on an out of town estate.

 

[danny la rouge]

I do think something has changed here over time that will make it difficult to see a similar phenomenon where 300 people turn up for a political meeting on an out of town estate.

Yes, of course there is. You already know what it is. It's the widespread realisation that whatever party you vote for, they're all neoliberals representing business interests, and your own life will not change.

Notice, what's happening in Scotland is not an election, it's a referendum. We aren't talking about changing the government, but about completely binning Westminster. People are hoping that this will mean we can start again and create something better. (I personally think a lot of people are going to be disillusioned if they're expecting real change to come from parliamentary democracy. The work we have to do is to keep people engaged creatively outside of parliamentary politics. But that wasn't your question).

 

[treelover]

The anti UKIP protest looked a lot smaller than was expected.

 

[youngian]

So Dan Hodges, after predicting UKIP would be destroyed in the euro elections (they topped the poll) and that the tories would easily win in clacton (UKIP lead by 44% on polling) and a host of other similarly ill-judged predictions, now reckons that NO will win by 19%.

Don't all rush to the bookies at once.

And they're not laying odds on who Hodges will blame for a Yes vote

 

[elbows]

Sorry if this has already been well covered, but while I was reading some drivel about Andrew Marr's new book (fiction), this bit stuck out:

He is watching the polls very closely, but is also mindful of the fact that “what the polls are not measuring at the moment is a very powerful voter-registration campaign on the council estates and the poorer parts of the big cities, being run by radical pro-independence groups. They are registering huge numbers of new yes voters so I think it’s probably even tighter than the polls suggest.”

On the yes side he is particularly interested in the “sense that ‘all we want is a slightly more social democratic, slightly fairer state and we can’t get that any longer from Westminster so we have no alternative.’ That is probably the most powerful yes campaign argument. What’s been going on in Scotland is, in a sense, a major populist revolt against Westminster, and if it can happen in Scotland it can happen elsewhere.” It needs, he believes, to be taken very seriously; it may need the great shock of losing Scotland for the point to definitively be made.

http://www.theguardian.com/media/20...-a-journalist-has-to-be-devious-head-of-state

 

[danny la rouge]

The anti UKIP protest looked a lot smaller than was expected.

Than was expected by whom? Yes campaigners decided to stay away because everything they do is misrepresented by the press.

 

[JTG]

ICM poll was telephone as opposed to web based YG - could account for increased DKs I guess

 

[ska invita]

That's incredible really, does it show us that Scotland is different than England or under different circumstance are the English capable of such engagement?

i think it goes to show how meaningful this referendum is - far beyond the SNP and right here right now politics
over recent years theres been a lot said about how apathetic people in Britain are about politics, especially the young - it was never true, more a case that the majority are increasingly clued up to how meaningless their democratic power is. The degree of social change on the plate in the vote is truly consequential, and not surprisingly the voting public is responding accordingly. If standard elections in the UK involved real social change the appetite would be the same.

 

[ibilly99]

If you like your conspiracy theories cooked up with a tartan flavour then Wayne Madsen's your man - apparently Yes is 11 points ahead and a false flag event is looming along with a rigged election with the usual suspects of the Rothschilds and Soros fiddling away behind the scenes ! Perfidious Albion indeed.

http://m.strategic-culture.org/news...ans-for-scotland-independence-referendum.html

 

[ibilly99]

Than was expected by whom? Yes campaigners decided to stay away because everything they do is misrepresented by the press.

Last time didn't go to well !

 

[treelover]

This last week has been incredible watching it all and despite capitals interventions, the celebs, the march of the (labour) m.p's , gives a slight glimpse of what politics could be like here, the grassroots stuff is inspiring.

 

[SpackleFrog]

"Another blow for the 'Yes' vote? First the banks threaten to flee an independent Scotland, now it appears the Loch Ness Monster has relocated south of the border!"

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...ter-relocated-south-border.html#ixzz3DBNjcvFV

 

[treelover]

wrong thread.

 

[youngian]

DLT

 

[RedDragon]

wrong thread.

There's too many of these threads its become confusing

Are we going to see QE2 doing a QE1 speech on the banks of Loch Lomond?

 

[8den]

 

[treelover]

DLT

Dave Lee Travis?

 

[ferrelhadley]

Times of the expected results, population % and the Tories rating of how pro yes they are. I suspect their rating are gash: Eilean Siar 2, Glasgow 5? The fuck are they sniffing...

 

[weepiper]

View attachment 61024

Times of the expected results, population % and the Tories rating of how pro yes they are. I suspect their rating are gash: Eilean Siar 2, Glasgow 5? The fuck are they sniffing...

Yeah, those 'yes ratings' are very questionable... this is Buchanan St in Glasgow half an hour ago

 

[butchersapron]

View attachment 61024

Times of the expected results, population % and the Tories rating of how pro yes they are. I suspect their rating are gash: Eilean Siar 2, Glasgow 5? The fuck are they sniffing...

Where's that from?

 

[ferrelhadley]

Where's that from?

It came to me second hand but was allegedly posted on twitter by a conservative "@cllrdmeikle "
https://twitter.com/cllrdmeikle
Has been taken down now.

 

[butchersapron]

It came to me second hand but was allegedly posted on twitter by a conservative "@cllrdmeikle "
https://twitter.com/cllrdmeikle
Has been taken down now.

Ta. Would be interesting to see the whole document it's from.

 

[Ranbay]

 

[spring-peeper]

Mr. Harper told reporters in London last week that Canadians find the concept of Scotland and England separating “inconceivable”.

“We think, from a Canadian perspective, that a strong, united United Kingdom is an overwhelmingly positive force in the world,” he said.

http://news.nationalpost.com/2014/0...-alex-salmond-says/?google_editors_picks=true

Once again, our prime minister does not speak for all Canadians.

 

[ferrelhadley]

Ta. Would be interesting to see the whole document it's from.

Apologies, it was from a Credit Suisse briefing and tweeted by a tory.

Elsewhere

There is something slightly odd about the links being widely made between the large capital outflows from the UK in July and August to fears that Scotland would vote for independence.

At the time, opinion polls and bookies' odds were showing a very high probability of Scots voting to stay in the union. There was no evidence of investors being anxious about Scottish independence then.

So it is extremely unlikely that the net $26bn (£16bn) of financial capital that left the UK in July and the $27bn that was withdrawn in August (according to data supplied by Crossborder Capital, which has been widely reported) had anything much to do with nervousness about the possible separation of Scotland.

There is a much better explanation for what happened. A colossal penny has dropped, thanks in part to remarks made by the Bank of England governor, Mark Carney, that the interest rate cycle is on the turn in the UK.

Or to put it another way, after six years of almost free money in the UK, market interest rates are rising and the official rate looks set to rise in months. Which all stems from a very good thing - the strength of the UK's economic recovery.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-29190397

 

[butchersapron]

Apologies, it was from a Credit Suisse briefing and tweeted by a tory.

Elsewhere
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-29190397

No need for apologies! I just saw it a few times last night but no one seemed to know where it came from apart from that tory councilor and wondered if you had some more info.

 

[butchersapron]

Sky News Newsdesk @SkyNewsBreak
Update - Survation telephone poll for 'Better Together' campaign suggests 54% of Scottish voters say 'no' to independence and 46% say 'yes'

 

[TheHoodedClaw]

James Matthews (Sky's Scotland Bureau Chief) just tweeted

BREAKING: Survation poll puts No-54/Yes-46

That's the first for a while that has the difference greater than the margin of error (I think)

Edit: Dammit beaten, I know it's not a race, but dammit!!

 

[butchersapron]

James Matthews (Sky's Scotland Bureau Chief) just tweeted



That's the first for a while that has the difference greater than the margin of error (I think)

Edit: Dammit beaten, I know it's not a race, but dammit!!

And i literally hadn't checked it since this morning, just turned it on after the football and there it was, like they were waiting for me:

With DKs included it's

40.8% YES
versus 47.0% NO.