The Scottish independence referendum polling thread

[killer b]

Do we have the view from Pyongyang yet?

Unless they start beheading scots they are out the game.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...tive-about-scottish-independence-9726768.html

 

[JTG]

I do wonder whether polling orgs have begun to take into account the high registration rate (and therefore presumably a higher turnout expectation) which accounts for the recent correction in polls.

It could come down to getting the vote out on the day...

 

[8ball]

It could come down to getting the vote out on the day...

I think getting the vote to stay in is the best strategy for the Yesses.

 

[redsquirrel]

I do wonder whether polling orgs have begun to take into account the high registration rate (and therefore presumably a higher turnout expectation) which accounts for the recent correction in polls.

It could come down to getting the vote out on the day...

I don't know about the latest YG but the previous polls that showed the swing to YES were done using the methodology as earlier ones giving NO a good lead. There was a slight change in their methodology but the effect that had was negligible (1%).

 

[JTG]

I don't know about the latest YG but the previous polls that showed the swing to YES were done using the methodology as earlier ones giving NO a good lead. There was a slight change in their methodology but the effect that had was negligible (1%).

This is the vaguest thing ever but I read something, somewhere in the last day or two explaining that they'd changed their weighting. That's all I have

 

[Wilf]

tonight's is 52-48 for no.

 

[rekil]

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...tive-about-scottish-independence-9726768.html

Quality journalism.

 

[redsquirrel]

This is the vaguest thing ever but I read something, somewhere in the last day or two explaining that they'd changed their weighting. That's all I have

They did change this weighting back the beginning of August but that was before the sharp move to YES they've observed.

 

[belboid]

Bloody hell, watching that 'debate' last night makes me want both sides to lose.

 

[ska invita]

YouGov released its latest poll figures last night, but YouGov’s president Peter Kellner now has an article on YouGov’s website explaining the figures, and why he thinks support for no has risen over the last week.

The whole thing is well worth reading, http://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/09/12/scotlands-yes-bandwagon-stalls/ but here’s an excerpt.

Responses to two questions tell us why Yes has now slipped back, albeit only slightly: it remains at a much higher level than at any point up to late August. We regularly ask people how they think independence would affect Scotland’s economy and their families’ own finances. During the Yes surge, optimism rose sharply and pessimism declined. Just one week ago, Scots divided evenly on whether their country would be better or worse off.
Now, the pessimists, 48% (up six since last week), clearly outnumber the optimists, 37% (down three). And the proportion who think that they personally would be worse off under independence is up as much as eight points in a week, to 45% - the highest in a series that goes back to last December.

 

[weepiper]

ICM poll for the Guardian due out at 12.30.

 

[butchersapron]

ICM/Guardian

YES - 49
NO - 51

With DKs:
Yes 40
No 42
DK -17%

 

[ska invita]

its still such a high number of DKs at this late stage....is there any analysis of what the DKs will do on Thursday? Will they refrain from voting because they dont know, or are they expecting to make a decision one way or another

 

[butchersapron]

87%+ have said they are certain to vote.

 

[Sue]

its still such a high number of DKs at this late stage....is there any analysis of what the DKs will do on Thursday? Will they refrain from voting because they dont know, or are they expecting to make a decision one way or another

One of my sisters is a genuine DK. She says she'll definitely be voting on Thursday though.

 

[ska invita]

Reason why 17% DKs in ICM phone poll compared with 4% YouGov is that the latter are members of polling panel & therefore more engaged
12:39 PM - 12 Sep 2014

 

[ska invita]

Dan Hodges ✔ @DPJHodges
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People commenting on the 17% "undecideds" in the ICM poll. They're not undecideds. They're No voters.

might be truth in that

 

[weepiper]

might be truth in that

or, it might be total conjecture.

 

[butchersapron]

There is not and never has been any truth in anything dan hodges says, has said, or will ever say on any political subject whatsoever.

 

[ska invita]

or, it might be total conjecture.

it might be, of course.

cant define why exactly but i can see a logic to the assumption - in that more DKs will go No

-something along the lines of if you havent made up your mind for Yes by now more than 50 percent will default to the safer option of No -to vote Yes if you DK would require a last minute step of faith - on average i think more people wont do that than will


...all chat in the wind of course

 

[butchersapron]

So Dan Hodges, after predicting UKIP would be destroyed in the euro elections (they topped the poll) and that the tories would easily win in clacton (UKIP lead by 44% on polling) and a host of other similarly ill-judged predictions, now reckons that NO will win by 19%.

Don't all rush to the bookies at once.

 

[ska invita]

i dont think all 17% are No, but I think it wouldnt be surprising that more than 50% of them go No.
I like surprises though

 

[belboid]

A majority of DK's will go 'No'

There will be an element of 'shy voting' - as we used to get with the tories and now do with the LibScum - and that's more likely to be with the No's (and their damend negativity, and toriness). But more significantly, DK's are people who haven't been convinced. If you are not convinced with the choices on offer, you'll stick with the status quo, and the status quo is No.

 

[butchersapron]

A majority of DK's will go 'No'

There will be an element of 'shy voting' - as we used to get with the tories and now do with the LibScum - and that's more likely to be with the No's (and there damend negativity, and toriness). But more significantly, DK's are people who haven't been convinced. If you are not convinced with the choices on offer, you#ll stick with the status quo, and the status quo is No.

That's the way things normally pan out - and i suggested the other day that this was why i think NO are likely to win. But in the YG polls that saw the rise in YES vote over the last few weeks, the DKs were splitting i think it was 2/1 for YES. They have only 4% saying DK now though so even if that rate continued (and you have to think this last 4% are going to be at least 50/50) then they're running out of road if the 4% lead is accurate. But, frankly, with the 3% MOE all this could be totally wrong anyway.

 

[Wilf]

A majority of DK's will go 'No'

There will be an element of 'shy voting' - as we used to get with the tories and now do with the LibScum - and that's more likely to be with the No's (and there damend negativity, and toriness). But more significantly, DK's are people who haven't been convinced. If you are not convinced with the choices on offer, you#ll stick with the status quo, and the status quo is No.

As with all of this, we don't know and the pollsters don't know, but yes I suspect there's a fair bit in that. DKs as 'not provens'. Hope it's yes, but I have a feeling the yes vote may end up slightly lower than the figures shown in the polls (for the reasons you suggest).

 

[danny la rouge]

That's the way things normally pan out - and i suggested the other day that this was why i think NO are likely to win. But in the YG polls that saw the rise in YES vote over the last few weeks, the DKs were splitting i think it was 2/1 for YES. They have only 4% saying DK now though so even if that rate continued (and you have to think this last 4% are going to be at least 50/50) then they're running out of road if the 4% lead is accurate. But, frankly, with the 3% MOE all this could be totally wrong anyway.

I just think it's too close to really call, and the 97% registration rate along with expected high turnout, means we're in territory the polls haven't dealt with before.

I would say one thing, though. There are a lot of people saying that "all these habitual non voters aren't registering to keep things the way they are". Maybe not. But just maybe they are.

 

[toggle]

its still such a high number of DKs at this late stage....is there any analysis of what the DKs will do on Thursday? Will they refrain from voting because they dont know, or are they expecting to make a decision one way or another

don't knows would be more likely to vote for the status quo or not vote than vote yes according to the stuff i've read on voter behavior patterns.

 

[treelover]

I just think it's too close to really call, and the 97% registration rate along with expected high turnout, means we're in territory the polls haven't dealt with before.

I would say one thing, though. There are a lot of people saying that "all these habitual non voters aren't registering to keep things the way they are". Maybe not. But just maybe they are.

That's incredible really, does it show us that Scotland is different than England or under different circumstance are the English capable of such engagement?

 

[butchersapron]

No. The English have more in common genetically with crabs than with Scottish people.

 

[danny la rouge]

That's incredible really, does it show us that Scotland is different than England or under different circumstance are the English capable of such engagement?

Butchers got there first with the sarcasm.

It's circumstances.