The Reform UK Party (latest nigel farage vehicle) is it to be laughed at or not

[littlebabyjesus]

Unless you live in a marginal seat where the parties do actually run a GOTV process, those old folks with rosettes outside the polling stations are purely symbolic.

But for Reform, pretty much every seat is a potential marginal, at best.

 

[brogdale]

But for Reform, pretty much every seat is a potential marginal, at best.

Without any ground game they won't have the doorstep data to start with, let alone any means to GOTV.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Without any ground game they won't have the doorstep data to start with, let alone any means to GOTV.

Yes. Fair point. That's kind of what I mean, though. To establish some kind of baseline will take effort and boots on the ground.

 

[brogdale]

Yes. Fair point. That's kind of what I mean, though. To establish some kind of baseline will take effort and boots on the ground.

Proper 60%+ doorstep engagement rates take years of sustained coherent canvassing to achieve and, even then, that requires regular doorstep and phone-bank coverage to sustain. The refUKers have nothing; they'll be digital only campaigners and that's where the Muskrat comes in.

 

[beesonthewhatnow]

Brexit won’t happen, Trump won’t win, Boris will never be PM, Trump won’t win again…

Sure, Reform aren’t a threat at all and Farage has no hope of being the next PM. Nothing to see here, nothing at all.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Proper 60%+ doorstep rates take years of sustained coherent canvassing to achieve and, even then, that requires regular doorstep and phone-bank coverage to sustain. The refUKers have nothing; they'll be digital only campaigners and that's where the Muskrat comes in.

That's a problem for them, though. A large part of their potential constituency is surely not very digital.

 

[brogdale]

That's a problem for them, though. A large part of their potential constituency is surely not very digital.

I wouldn't be so sure of that; loads of oldies live on fucking FB

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Brexit won’t happen, Trump won’t win, Boris will never be PM, Trump won’t win again…

I got one out of those four right. I'm due another hit.

 

[Elpenor]

Yes, there are 98 seats in which the refUKers came second and 89 of those are held by the LP. But, tbh, coming second in the popular vote is not necessarily the best indicator of potential success; in the 10 most marginal (lowest LP -> R) swing seats, the Falangist actually came 3rd in 7 of them.

View attachment 457069

Broad mix of seats too - 3 in Kent, 2 in Wales, 2 each in the West / East Midlands, and 1 in Norfolk.

 

[brogdale]

Just as a matter of interest, with all the usual caveats about this being one particular snapshot which is unlikely to be repeated, here's what happened to vote shares in the 5 seats that the refUKers actually won back in July:

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Those figures perhaps indicate Refuck's problem atm.

Looking up Ashfield Independents, they appear to be a splinter group from the LibDems, of all things. So local weirdness in that one. The other four are pretty much identical. Big Tory majorities collapse but Labour share of the vote steady or going up slightly.

That supports the idea that they have not yet broken past being a party of protest for largely Tory voters to defect to to register their disapproval of the Tories.

 

[Dom Traynor]

They frame what they say as being common sense. Not quite the same thing, especially given their economics are broadly the same as those of the people they're criticising and their obsession with migration has very little practical application being moaning that everyone else is getting it wrong.

Yes of course, didn't think I'd have to add that part.

 

[Spymaster]

Brexit won’t happen, Trump won’t win, Boris will never be PM, Trump won’t win again…

Sure, Reform aren’t a threat at all and Farage has no hope of being the next PM. Nothing to see here, nothing at all.

My favourites were both courtesy of Urban's very own Grand Oracle ska invita who not only assured us that Boris Johnson would never be Prime Minister, but also that there was no way that Vladimir Putin would invade Ukraine

 

[littlebabyjesus]

My favourites were both courtesy of Urban's very own Grand Oracle ska invita who not only assured us that Boris Johnson would never be Prime Minister, but also that there was no way that Vladimir Putin would invade Ukraine

Johnson as PM is the one I got right. All the way back in 2016. I was poo-pooed by butchersapron for that one. And by poo-pooed, what I mean is 'rudely told that I didn't understand anything about anything'.

 

[Spymaster]

I was poo-pooed by butchersapron for that one. And by poo-pooed, what I mean is 'rudely told that I didn't understand anything about anything'.

I remember. There was a lot of that going around at the time.

 

[brogdale]

Those figures perhaps indicate Refuck's problem atm.

Looking up Ashfield Independents, they appear to be a splinter group from the LibDems, of all things. So local weirdness in that one. The other four are pretty much identical. Big Tory majorities collapse but Labour share of the vote steady or going up slightly.

That supports the idea that they have not yet broken past being a party of protest for largely Tory voters to defect to to register their disapproval of the Tories.

Well, yes...but even 5 months into this Parliamentary term, polling suggests that sentiments have changed significantly. Dissatisfaction with Starmer's administration set in so quickly.

 

[brogdale]

I remember. There was a lot of that going around at the time.

I see you still haven't come up with any response about how Farage will become the next PM; just a hunch was it?

 

[Monkeygrinder's Organ]

That partnership with the Tories is not unlikely though, is it. With Reform the larger party too. And there are close to 100 seats where they came 2nd to Labour.

It's less likely with them as the larger party though, and it's potentially a massive danger for them. Their vote isn't some sort of continuity Toryism I don't think, it's consciously anti Tory to a large degree. The potential for a Clegg style backlash is definitely there.

If they were the larger party the issue is more on the other side - the Tories might as well change their name to The Irrelevant Party if they accepted that.

Not that it could never happen but it's not straightforward at all IMO.

 

[Spymaster]

I see you still haven't come up with any response about how Farage will become the next PM; just a hunch was it?

Well, Farage or another Reform type, and not necessarily the next one, could be the one after.

I've told you how. They'll either form a coalition with the Tories, or less likely, get a massive swing from the Tories, and also take a load of Labour seats. Again, they got 4 years to do it, loads of money coming in, no credible opposition from the left, shitloads of ambition that's gaining mass-appeal, and one of the most effective leaders in British politics for decades.

Weren't you one of those promising us that Trump didn't stand a chance?

 

[brogdale]

Well, Farage or another Reform type, and not necessarily the next one, could be the one after.

I've told you how. They'll either form a coalition with the Tories, or less likely, get a massive swing from the Tories, and also take a load of Labour seats. Again, they got 4 years to do it, loads of money coming in, no credible opposition from the left, shitloads of ambition that's gaining mass-appeal, and one of the most effective leaders in British politics for decades.

Weren't you one of those promising us that Trump didn't stand a chance?

Oh, I see...that's a considerably more qualified claim; maybe Falange/maybe not...maybe 2029/maybe 2034. Yeah well, that looks more like guesswork that any sort of credible, reasoned prediction.

I think the least credible part has to be the notion of coalition with the vermin; one of the big refUKer positions is that the vermin are not conservative; only refUKers are the real deal. Getting into bed with their raison d'être doesn't make political sense.

e2a: oh, the trump thing; I doubt it, but honestly can't remember; is the accusation about 2016 or 2024?

 

[AverageJoe]

Reform are 9/4 to win the next election.

Labour and Conservatives are 6/4.

Libdems are 50/1 if anyone was interested.

 

[teqniq]

Well, Farage or another Reform type, and not necessarily the next one, could be the one after.

I've told you how. They'll either form a coalition with the Tories, or less likely, get a massive swing from the Tories, and also take a load of Labour seats. Again, they got 4 years to do it, loads of money coming in, no credible opposition from the left, shitloads of ambition that's gaining mass-appeal, and one of the most appalling dishonest scumbags in British politics for decades.

Weren't you one of those promising us that Trump didn't stand a chance?

FFY

 

[8ball]

My favourites were both courtesy of Urban's very own Grand Oracle ska invita who not only assured us that Boris Johnson would never be Prime Minister, but also that there was no way that Vladimir Putin would invade Ukraine

Tbf I remember saying I thought Putin was sabre-rattling and didn't intend to invade (a couple of days before he did), and I recall you saying the Russians would have the Ukrainians sorted and in their box in three days tops.

Soothsaying is hard.

 

[Spymaster]

Oh, I see...that's a considerably more qualified claim; maybe Falange/maybe not...maybe 2029/maybe 2034.

No. It's exactly the same as the first one and the one I've been making for some time.

e2a: oh, the trump thing; I doubt it, but honestly can't remember; is the accusation about 2016 or 2024?

2016.

Can't be asked to search though, so happy to take your word for it if you think I'm mistaken.

 

[brogdale]

2016.

Can't be asked to search though, so happy to take your word for it if you think I'm mistaken.

Not really relevant, is it?

 

[Spymaster]

Tbf I remember saying I thought Putin was sabre-rattling and didn't intend to invade (a couple of days before he did), and I recall you saying the Russians would have the Ukrainians sorted and in their box in three days tops.

Yeah, hands-up.

I don't think I put 3 days on it, but certainly didn't think it would last long, and was pretty vocal that NATO wouldn't get involved with providing equipment.

 

[PTK]

You think?

(Family are Labour traditionally but I voted Lib Dem as a protest against Labour's support of Israel and because a 'friend' guilt tripped me into not voting Labour because they claimed I would be putting trans people in concentration camps, and my brother voted for an indy)

Did you believe that a Labour government would put trans people in concentration camps?

 

[Elpenor]

I wouldn't be so sure of that; loads of oldies live on fucking FB

Lots of people on the local FB groups round here have a reform profile pic

 

[Monkeygrinder's Organ]

'You thought Trump wouldn't win in 2016' isn't much of an accusation is it. Tbh if anyone wants to claim they didn't think that at first I'd think they were probably lying.

 

[emanymton]

Well, Farage or another Reform type, and not necessarily the next one, could be the one after.

I've told you how. They'll either form a coalition with the Tories, or less likely, get a massive swing from the Tories, and also take a load of Labour seats. Again, they got 4 years to do it, loads of money coming in, no credible opposition from the left, shitloads of ambition that's gaining mass-appeal, and one of the most effective leaders in British politics for decades.

Weren't you one of those promising us that Trump didn't stand a chance?

Does the "Reform type" have to be outside the Tory party? There are plenty of them inside the Tory party still and why I think the Tories will win the next election outright or with Reform as a very junior partner in a coalition.