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The Brexit process

On VoxEU How Spain should negotiate Brexit: Preserving a tangled web
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However, Spain has been adopting a low profile in the international arena for many years now, and its Europeanism suggests that it is highly unlikely to deviate from the position taken by France and Germany, and will thus demand that the Commission leads and the Parliament has a say in the negotiations, once Article 50 is invoked. Spain will likely be a disciplined soldier on the European side, and demand that access to the Single Market continues to require a commitment to all four freedoms, and most notably to freedom of movement of people inside the Union.

A potential stumbling block is Gibraltar. Everything we have heard from the Spanish government up till now suggests that it is unlikely any deal in which Gibraltar retains access in any form to the EU will be reached that does not involve joint (Spanish and British) sovereignty over the peninsula.

The Gibraltar issue highlights the likely result of the negotiation between the EU27 and the UK – the UK’s death by a thousand cuts. Every country involved in the bargaining has veto power, and every one of them is likely to have a shopping list – some issue that is important enough to block progress. For the Poles it may be freedom of movement, for the Irish it may have to do with Northern Ireland. The ability of the UK government to resist these demands, with the clock ticking, simply does not seem to be there.

As a result, the UK is likely to find itself, at the end of these two years, with a very bad deal. By the time 27 countries have finished putting together their “Yes, but what about Gibraltar?” like objections, the pro-Brexit politicians will either have to start explaining to voters the distance between the fantasy they invented and the reality, or be prepared to back off from Brexit.
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My bold, not so much a hard Brexit as likely a very messy one in which the EU27 fail to agree on a whole range of issues.
 
brogdale said:
What's happening in Commons tomorrow is probably more important atm.
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Agreed.

The legal machinations are merely an interesting (to some of us) sideshow. It's in the political arena (the Commons and wider) that the important stuff is happening.
 
marty21 said:
I have got involved in rows with a fair few kippers on line elsewhere :facepalm: they insist that Brexit is hard Brexit, and that is the Brexit they voted for :mad: and they get the right hump when I say that they voted to Brexit but the government will decide what sort of Brexit they will get and there is fuck all they can do about that. That sums it up doesn't it?
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Irrespective of my views on the In/Out vote itself, this macho shit coming from the increasingly shrill vocal exit camp on a hard brexit is worrying and seems to exhibit a total lack of understanding of how these things work out in the real world
 
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not-bono-ever said:
Irrespective of my views on the In/Out vote itself, this macho shit coming from the increasingly shrill vocal exit camp on a hard brexit is worrying and seems to exhibit a total lack of understanding of how things work out these in the real world
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aye! And they refer to minsters making various announcements during the campaign which means they will get what they want - it is a curiously child-like version of politics
 
marty21 said:
aye! And they refer to minsters making various announcements during the campaign which means they will get what they want - it is a curiously child-like version of politics
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It did work though. Leave appealed to a patriotic sense of exaggerated self worth and innate entitlement. It was out eagerly running with scissors whereas Remain was just a naggy Aunty seeing risks everywhere.

Just like Mr Trump's "curiously child-like" vocabulary and schoolyard bully tactics trampled mainstream opponents. Perhaps conventional politicians have been over estimating the real mental age of the electorate. Like stuffy broadsheet compared to an effective tabloid newspaper. In the infantile télé poubelle age Joe Public is easily tired by experts and just wants some promises of highly sugared goodies with a sexy sidebar of shame.
 
CrabbedOne said:
It did work though. Leave appealed to a patriotic sense of exaggerated self worth and innate entitlement. It was out eagerly running with scissors whereas Remain was just a naggy Aunty seeing risks everywhere.

Just like Mr Trump's "curiously child-like" vocabulary and schoolyard bully tactics trampled mainstream opponents. Perhaps conventional politicians have been over estimating the real mental age of the electorate. Like stuffy broadsheet compared to an effective tabloid newspaper. In the infantile télé poubelle age Joe Public is easily tired by experts and just wants some promises of highly sugared goodies with a sexy sidebar of shame.
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remain was a shit campaign - basically it was a load of fear stuff , the passionate ones were lib Dems and they were fucked by their collaboration with the Tories
 
marty21 said:
remain was a shit campaign - basically it was a load of fear stuff , the passionate ones were lib Dems and they were fucked by their collaboration with the Tories
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Well it was a rerun of the Scottish secession referendum. Dave's Project Fear worked there and also shafted Labour. But then Scots are mostly a careful, calculating people so unlike the hot blooded English.
 
MPs back government's Brexit timetable
MPs have voted to back the government's plan to start formal talks on Brexit by the end of March next year. They also supported a Labour motion calling for Parliament to "properly scrutinise" the government in its proposals for leaving the EU. The votes followed a compromise between Labour and the Conservatives, who had argued over the questions to be put. The House of Commons' decisions are not binding on ministers
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Not quite sure what that last bit means :confused:
 
CrabbedOne said:
Well it was a rerun of the Scottish secession referendum. Dave's Project Fear worked there and also shafted Labour. But then Scots are mostly a careful, calculating people so unlike the hot blooded English.
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Did it work? Or did it just not fail quite badly enough for the vote to be lost?

My suspicion is that the projects fear for Scottish Indie and Brexit both lost votes.
 
CrabbedOne said:
Undeniably shafted Labour in both cases.
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Unfortunately I think Labour shafted themselves in both cases.

Scotland, they should have made a separate case for the union and had nothing to do with the Tories' case. It would have been straightforward to do.

Over Brexit, imo the case they made, to do with worker rights, the environment, etc, was the correct one, they just arguably didn't make it forcefully enough. Too early to say who has been shafted by the brexit referendum.
 
CrabbedOne said:
Think of it all as a great unleashing creative chaos. Bit like the Arab Spring but run by a bunch of twits with a critical mass of emboldened stupidity.
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A fair summation of the EU commission, playing 'hardball' at this stage isn't going to do any party any favours in the long run.
In fact it's playing into the hands of the tiny band of 'racist little Englanders' who despite the protestations of the remainders, had little real impact on the referendum.
But the efforts of some in the commissions negotiating team, who are clearly out to damage the UK as much as possible in the exit process, a desire jointly, to capture as much of our exports as possible ( mainly the financial sector) and to scare off any other countries who might consider following us out, will give the hardliners here in the UK a lot more support.
We are leaving, anybody with a grain of common knows an amicable divorce is always the best option.
Brussels needs to think about the bairns-;)
 
So those voting against the Conservative amendment to the Labour motion, to call on the Government to invoke Article 50 by 31st March 2017 included:-
  • 1 Tory (Ken Clarke)
  • Caroline Lucas
  • 23 Labour MPs (
    1. Rushanara Ali
    2. Graham Allen
    3. Ben Bradshaw
    4. Ann Coffey
    5. Neil Coyle
    6. Stella Creasy
    7. Geraint Davies
    8. Jim Dowd
    9. Louise Ellman
    10. Chris Evans
    11. Paul Farrelly
    12. Mike Gapes
    13. Helen Hayes
    14. Meg Hillier
    15. Peter Kyle
    16. David Lammy
    17. Chris Leslie
    18. Ian Murray
    19. Barry Sheerman
    20. Tulip Siddiq
    21. Angela Smith
    22. Catherine West
    23. Daniel Zeichner
  • 6 of the 9 LDs
  • 3 PC MPs
  • 3 SDLP MPs
  • 52 (+2 Indep) SNP MPs
Total = 91.
 
brogdale said:
So those voting against the Conservative amendment to the Labour motion, to call on the Government to invoke Article 50 by 31st March 2017 included:-
  • 1 Tory (Ken Clarke)
  • Caroline Lucas
  • 23 Labour MPs (
    1. Rushanara Ali
    2. Graham Allen
    3. Ben Bradshaw
    4. Ann Coffey
    5. Neil Coyle
    6. Stella Creasy
    7. Geraint Davies
    8. Jim Dowd
    9. Louise Ellman
    10. Chris Evans
    11. Paul Farrelly
    12. Mike Gapes
    13. Helen Hayes
    14. Meg Hillier
    15. Peter Kyle
    16. David Lammy
    17. Chris Leslie
    18. Ian Murray
    19. Barry Sheerman
    20. Tulip Siddiq
    21. Angela Smith
    22. Catherine West
    23. Daniel Zeichner
  • 6 of the 9 LDs
  • 3 PC MPs
  • 3 SDLP MPs
  • 52 (+2 Indep) SNP MPs
Total = 91.
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Is all this meaning anything?

The law in the UK will decide the date of the submission of A50.
The Commission will decide the timing of the negotiations and the 27 remaining countries in the EU will ultimately terms and conditions of leaving.

The UK will be left with whatever they can.
 
Quark said:
Is all this meaning anything?

The law in the UK will decide the date of the submission of A50.
The Commission will decide the timing of the negotiations and the 27 remaining countries in the EU will ultimately terms and conditions of leaving.

The UK will be left with whatever they can.
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It 'means something' to the extent that it is up to the leaving state to determine when A50 is invoked.
 
brogdale

Well yes but this constant banging on about March will happen only when all the legal tangles are sorted in the UK. I have a feeling there will be a lot of untangling to do.
 
andysays said:
If nothing else, it means brogdale has 91 names for his list
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Only a few of them have given themselves a headache with regards their constituency : %= estimated %Leave Voters


CON
Ken Clarke Rushcliffe 41.3%

GREEN
Caroline Lucus Brighton Pavillion 25.7%

LABOUR
Rushanara Ali Bethnal Greenand Bow 30.9%
Graham Allen Nottingham North 57.3%
Ben Bradshaw Exeter 44.7%
Ann Coffey Stockport 48.1%
Neil Coyle Bermondsey & Old Southwark 27.0%
Stella Creasy Walthamstow 36.4%
Geraint Davies Swansea West 42.7%
Jim Dowd Lewisham West 34.4%
Louise Ellman Liverpool Riverside 26.9%
Chris Evans Islwyn 58.9%
Paul Farrelly Newcastle Under Lyme 61.7%
Mike Gapes Ilford South 43.9%
Helen Hayes Dulwich and West Norwood 22.1%
Meg Hillier Hackney South 22.2%
Peter Kyle Hove 33.9%
David Lammy Tottenham 33.4%
Chris Leslie Nottingham East 42.8%
Ian Murray Edinburgh South 23.6%
Barry Sheerman Huddersfield 51.1%
Tulip Siddiq Hampstead and Kilburn 23.5%
Angela Smith Penistone 61.3%
Catherine West Hornsey and Wood Green 18.5%
Daniel Zeichner Cambridge 26.4%

LID DEM
Alistair Carmichael Orkney and Shetland 40.3%
Nick Clegg Sheffield Hallam 35.9%
Tim Farron Westmorland and Lonsdale 47.5%
Mark Williams Cerdigion 45.4%

PC
Janathon Edwards Carmarthen East 53.8%
Liz Saville Roberts Dwyfor Merionndd 48.3%
Hywel Williams Arfon 34.9%

SNP constituences all <50%
 
gosub said:
Only a few of them have given themselves a headache with regards their constituency : %= estimated %Leave Voters


CON
Ken Clarke Rushcliffe 41.3%

GREEN
Caroline Lucus Brighton Pavillion 25.7%

LABOUR
Rushanara Ali Bethnal Greenand Bow 30.9%
Graham Allen Nottingham North 57.3
Ben Bradshaw Exeter 44.7%
Ann Coffey Stockport 48.1%
Neil Coyle Bermondsey & Old Southwark 27.0%
Stella Creasy Walthamstow 36.4%
Geraint Davies Swansea West 42.7%
Jim Dowd Lewisham West 34.4%
Louise Ellman Liverpool Riverside 26.9%
Chris Evans Islwyn 58.9%
Paul Farrelly Newcastle Under Lyme 61.7%
Mike Gapes Ilford South 43.9%
Helen Hayes Dulwich and West Norwood 22.1%
Meg Hillier Hackney South 22.2%
Peter Kyle Hove 33.9%
David Lammy Tottenham 33.4%
Chris Leslie Nottingham East 42.8%
Ian Murray Edinburgh South 23.6%
Barry Sheerman Huddersfield 51.1%
Tulip Siddiq Hampstead and Kilburn 23.5%
Angela Smith Penistone 61.3%
Catherine West Hornsey and Wood Green 18.5%
Daniel Zeichner Cambridge 26.4

LID DEM
Alistair Carmichael Orkney and Shetland 40.3%
Nick Clegg Sheffield Hallam 35.9%
Tim Farron Westmorland and Lonsdale 47.5%
Mark Williams Cerdigion 45.4%

PC
Janathon Edwards Carmarthen East 53.8%
Liz Saville Roberts Dwyfor Merionndd 48.3%
Hywel Williams Arfon 34.9%

SNP constituences all <50%
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That's not all of them, though.
 
gosub said:
:mad: I just spent 20 mins going through that list YOU put up, then finding the names of the PC and Lib Dems and doing them. If there is more, and they ain't Scots or N Irish I'm blaming YOU:mad::mad::mad::mad:
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Well, you left out my MP Tom Brake.
 
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