The big Brexit thread - news, updates and discussion

[Badgers]

BBC website reporting 15 - 20 trucks in Whitehall

No doubt Farage is there supporting them

 

[Brainaddict]

I haven't got all the way through this and indeed not given it the most attention, but there seem to me to be some deeply questionable assertions in this piece.

It spends a lot of time trying to pin a significant root cause for Brexit on Gordon Brown's decision not to join the Euro, and it also describes the US/UK subprime mortgage crisis which indeed the UK was highly exposed to, without any real (at least early) mention of the massive European credit crisis, which it was not.

I do see what it's trying to do here - in too deep to get out, too big to fail. But in this alternate reality where we joined the Euro, we probably still would have been heavily exposed in our own way to the US-initiated crisis and then, as the US recovered, exposed again to the EU one, and honestly at that point I think Brexit and returning to the pound would have looked like a pretty fucking good idea all round.

Perhaps this is for a different thread.

I can't be bothered to read all that but sounds like he's talking right bollocks. The Euro was the single biggest mistake of the EU in my opinion. And some people knew what was wrong with it but it still went ahead. A currency is a tool of government, not a natural outcome of markets (see recent re-writings of the history of money). So either you have an EU wide government or you can't control your EU-wide currency. But there's resistance (understandably) to the notion of EU-wide government, so instead what happens is de facto EU government by the richest countries and the poor countries get screwed. This is going to happen repeatedly until the Euro is dumped. One of the things the more reasonable Brexiters saw was a de facto government across the Euro area that looked deeply unsavoury, since the EU had to deny that there was a European government. It looked bad enough from a distance, the idea that us being involved in it would have made it look better is laughable.

 

[brogdale]

BBC website reporting 15 - 20 trucks in Whitehall

If they can't export and they've driven down to protest that would leave them open to arrest under the covid regs, no?

 

[Badgers]

 

[gosub]

Problem with counterfactuals is that you very quickly get into imponderables. For instance, the UK property price bubble started to inflate in earnest in 2002. How might joining the euro a year earlier have affected that? By the time you get to the credit crunch six years later, all kinds of different things could have happened.

As much as we didn't join the EUro under Blair nor Brown for that matter, the Treasury had a EUro convergence section that Cameron abolished. Part of that convergience saw our intrest rates halved in the name of EUro parity.....it was that slash in interest rates (Eire had similar rates to UK prior to joining the EUro) both here and in Ireland which led to the overcooked house prices

 

[littlebabyjesus]

I can't be bothered to read all that but sounds like he's talking right bollocks. The Euro was the single biggest mistake of the EU in my opinion. And some people knew what was wrong with it but it still went ahead. A currency is a tool of government, not a natural outcome of markets (see recent re-writings of the history of money). So either you have an EU wide government or you can't control your EU-wide currency. But there's resistance (understandably) to the notion of EU-wide government, so instead what happens is de facto EU government by the richest countries and the poor countries get screwed. This is going to happen repeatedly until the Euro is dumped. One of the things the more reasonable Brexiters saw was a de facto government across the Euro area that looked deeply unsavoury, since the EU had to deny that there was a European government. It looked bad enough from a distance, the idea that us being involved in it would have made it look better is laughable.

I agree with much of that, but the UK inside the euro would likely have been on the German/Dutch side of that wealth and power divide rather than the Greek/Spanish one. Being inside the euro may not have made the euro look better, but it may very well have made it look far harder to leave the EU. I don't think that's necessarily an unreasonable point.

 

[platinumsage]

If they can't export and they've driven down to protest that would leave them open to arrest under the covid regs, no?

Not if government lobbying is a work duty, which it clearly could be if they don't admit it isn't.

 

[Badgers]

More context needed. What is this, where is it from, etc

 

[brogdale]

I haven't got all the way through this and indeed not given it the most attention, but there seem to me to be some deeply questionable assertions in this piece.

It spends a lot of time trying to pin a significant root cause for Brexit on Gordon Brown's decision not to join the Euro, and it also describes the US/UK subprime mortgage crisis which indeed the UK was highly exposed to, without any real (at least early) mention of the massive European credit crisis, which it was not.

I do see what it's trying to do here - in too deep to get out, too big to fail. But in this alternate reality where we joined the Euro, we probably still would have been heavily exposed in our own way to the US-initiated crisis and then, as the US recovered, exposed again to the EU one, and honestly at that point I think Brexit and returning to the pound would have looked like a pretty fucking good idea all round.

Perhaps this is for a different thread.

I think you're right that discussion of the Anderson piece is probably best left to the relevant thread.

But, seeing as you're raised the point...I really don't agree with the assertion that a significant root cause for Brexit [was] Gordon Brown's decision not to join the Euro. The point Anderson makes is that, as a result of being outside of the monetary union, UK voters with savings (the old/wealthy etc) were free to make their referendum decision without threat of the most immediate and concrete harm to their own material interests. A factor, yes...but not a root cause.

 

[Pickman's model]

I can't be bothered to read all that but sounds like he's talking right bollocks. The Euro was the single biggest mistake of the EU in my opinion. And some people knew what was wrong with it but it still went ahead. A currency is a tool of government, not a natural outcome of markets (see recent re-writings of the history of money). So either you have an EU wide government or you can't control your EU-wide currency. But there's resistance (understandably) to the notion of EU-wide government, so instead what happens is de facto EU government by the richest countries and the poor countries get screwed. This is going to happen repeatedly until the Euro is dumped. One of the things the more reasonable Brexiters saw was a de facto government across the Euro area that looked deeply unsavoury, since the EU had to deny that there was a European government. It looked bad enough from a distance, the idea that us being involved in it would have made it look better is laughable.

i think you might like to consider other aspects of the relationship outside the euro - do you honestly think as you suggest here that the likes of germany would not have enjoyed more power than say the greek government or romanian government anyway? your suggestion seems frankly facile.

 

[Pickman's model]

I agree with much of that, but the UK inside the euro would likely have been on the German/Dutch side of that wealth and power divide rather than the Greek/Spanish one. Being inside the euro may not have made the euro look better, but it may very well have made it look far harder to leave the EU. I don't think that's necessarily an unreasonable point.

made it look harder. not necessarily made it harder. a not insignificant difference.

 

[ska invita]

As much as we didn't join the EUro under Blair nor Brown for that matter, the Treasury had a EUro convergence section that Cameron abolished. Part of that convergience saw our intrest rates halved in the name of EUro parity.....it was that slash in interest rates (Eire had similar rates to UK prior to joining the EUro) both here and in Ireland which led to the overcooked house prices

what year were " intrest rates halved in the name of EUro parity"?

 

[brogdale]

As much as we didn't join the EUro under Blair nor Brown for that matter, the Treasury had a EUro convergence section that Cameron abolished. Part of that convergience saw our intrest rates halved in the name of EUro parity.....it was that slash in interest rates (Eire had similar rates to UK prior to joining the EUro) both here and in Ireland which led to the overcooked house prices

In part, but it was Lawson's pumping up to win the '87 election that had baked in the asset price inflation.

 

[platinumsage]

Yeah they'll just need to self-isolate for the appropriate period like most arrivals. I can understand exemptions for channel tunnel workers, oil rig staff, diplomats and air crew. Not sure that journos and advertisers should really be avoiding quarantine.

 

[MickiQ]

What's an ornamental horticulture worker? Is it someone who prepares plants that are nice to look at or someone who just generally prepares plants but is actually good looking themselves?

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Uk base rates over time.

6 down to 4 prior to the bubble, drifting back up towards 6 during the bubble.

 

[brogdale]

i think you might like to consider other aspects of the relationship outside the euro - do you honestly think as you suggest here that the likes of germany would not have enjoyed more power than say the greek government or romanian government anyway? your suggestion seems frankly facile.

Let's face it, any post that kicks off with

I can't be bothered to read all that but sounds like he's talking right bollocks.

 

[Pickman's model]

Uk base rates over time.

6 down to 4 prior to the bubble, drifting back up towards 6 during the bubble.

do you have something which covers the period 1 june 2017 to say december 2020?

 

[Raheem]

What's an ornamental horticulture worker? Is it someone who prepares plants that are nice to look at or someone who just generally prepares plants but is actually good looking themselves?

It's a gardener that fits on the mantelpiece.

 

[Pickman's model]

What's an ornamental horticulture worker?

picture Spymaster wearing tweeds posing with a shovel or rake.

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

Official link: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-travellers-exempt-from-uk-border-rules

Basically the only people allowed in to the UK without quarantine are now Covid workers, truckers and flight/train crews.

Plus they intend to actually enforce the quarantine, whereas until now it has been effectively a voluntary thing. No mention of how they intend to enforce it yet though.

 

[gosub]

what year were " intrest rates halved in the name of EUro parity"?

At introduction of EUro UK rates 7% they come down to under 4 by 2004 .

I was going from memory. Looking at it 2004-8 looks more about stable exchange rate than convergence.

 

[two sheds]

picture Spymaster wearing tweeds posing with a shovel or rake.

I was thinking a gnome with a rake, but you got there before me

 

[Brainaddict]

I agree with much of that, but the UK inside the euro would likely have been on the German/Dutch side of that wealth and power divide rather than the Greek/Spanish one. Being inside the euro may not have made the euro look better, but it may very well have made it look far harder to leave the EU. I don't think that's necessarily an unreasonable point.

But the 'return sovereignty' gang picked over every tiny little battle that the UK lost, even though the UK much more often won its arguments in the EU. That would have been really magnified if we'd been in the euro. Even if we'd got our way 95% of the time (and we probably would have done), the 5% of the time we didn't it would all have been GERMANY GETS THEIR WAY AGAIN DID WE REALLY WIN TWO WORLD WARS TO PUT UP WITH GERMAN HEGEMONY AGAIN. It all would have been even more magnified by the importance of the economic decisions you have to make together when you share a currency.

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

Yeah they'll just need to self-isolate for the appropriate period like most arrivals. I can understand exemptions for channel tunnel workers, oil rig staff, diplomats and air crew. Not sure that journos and advertisers should really be avoiding quarantine.

What has been happening is advertisers (TV ads and photoshoots) come to the UK and quarantine in a hotel but can leave to go to set only. That's now being dropped.

 

[platinumsage]

What has been happening is advertisers (TV ads and photoshoots) come to the UK and quarantine in a hotel but can leave to go to set only. That's now being dropped.

Good. Self-isolating which includes going to work making adverts shouldn't be a thing.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Subject for another thread, but the UK govt is rather confused over this. You're supposed to impose quarantine measures when your infection levels are lower than lots of other places, not higher.

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

Good. Self-isolating which includes going to work making adverts shouldn't be a thing.

Yeah, was an odd exemption. Not quite as odd as another one which has now been closed; "if your work means you travel out of the UK more than one a week, no quarantine at all." That's was just nuts, surely that makes you more likely to get it? Still, the advertising thing and business thing has kept me busy the past few months, looks like I'll be able to spend more time working on my fitness and cycling skills now.

 

[platinumsage]

Subject for another thread, but the UK govt is rather confused over this. You're supposed to impose quarantine measures when your infection levels are lower than lots of other places, not higher.

No, you want to stop variants coming in, especially via third countries and also including ones we don't know about yet.

 

[brogdale]

But the 'return sovereignty' gang picked over every tiny little battle that the UK lost, even though the UK much more often won its arguments in the EU. That would have been really magnified if we'd been in the euro. Even if we'd got our way 95% of the time (and we probably would have done), the 5% of the time we didn't it would all have been GERMANY GETS THEIR WAY AGAIN DID WE REALLY WIN TWO WORLD WARS TO PUT UP WITH GERMAN HEGEMONY AGAIN. It all would have been even more magnified by the importance of the economic decisions you have to make together when you share a currency.

One of the strongest points made in the Anderson piece relating to pivotal moments in the 'road to Brexit' was an example of precisely the opposite of what you assert. It was Germany's (Merkel's) 'work-around' of Cameron's veto that convinced more Tories that reform was not an option, whatever Cameron claimed.