The big Brexit thread - news, updates and discussion

[Roadkill]

Given the size of Johnson's majority (and the fact that Starmer appears not to have much stomach for actually opposing), I don't think the ERG have the parliamentary power to prevent any deal which Johnson might manage to do.

Not sure about that - not clear exactly how many of them there are - but they can certainly make his life difficult.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

No, they're not reasonable; they're tory cunts. But that's the point, when the shit starts to hit the fan they'll rally round for the most part and join Johnson's bunker mentality safe in the knowledge that the great, neoliberal leap forward has been secured. For some of them their career's work done.

Rally round a leader who's just caused an enormous disaster? I doubt that.

If there is no deal and that causes the predicted disruption, the Tories will need to get rid of Johnson so that a new leader can negotiate a deal. My fear in all this is that the Tories will be allowed to renew themselves without losing power for the third time since the referendum.

 

[brogdale]

You reckon?! I think they'll defenestrate Johnson in short order!

Eventually, yes...but not while they have to pull through the 'choppiest' waters/'bumps in the road'.

 

[brogdale]

Rally round a leader who's just caused an enormous disaster? I doubt that.

If there is no deal and that causes the predicted disruption, the Tories will need to get rid of Johnson so that a new leader can negotiate a deal. My fear in all this is that the Tories will be allowed to renew themselves without losing power for the third time since the referendum.

Agree with that last bit.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

This whole shitfest reminds me of a quote from the head psychiatrist at Broadmoor, who described her criminally insane patients as 'the victims of a terrible catastrophe, where they themselves are the catastrophe'.

 

[Roadkill]

Eventually, yes...but not while they have to pull through the 'choppiest' waters/'bumps in the road'.

I can't help thinking they're as or more likely to see the 'choppy waters' as the perfect opportunity to throw him overboard, blaming him for the shit-show as they do so. The golden rule with these people is that it's never, ever their fault.

 

[brogdale]

I can't help thinking they're as or more likely to see the 'choppy waters' as the perfect opportunity to throw him overboard, blaming him for the shit-show as they do so. The golden rule with these people is that it's never, ever their fault.

That may be their golden rule, but at a time when their press will be lauding Johnson as our national saviour to the 'red-wallers' they won't make their move against him.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

That may be their golden rule, but at a time when their press will be lauding Johnson as our national saviour to the 'red-wallers' they won't make their move against him.

You think the Tory press will be praising Johnson when the images show empty shelves in shops and lorries lined up across Kent as if it were some kind of misjudged Guinness World Record attempt?

 

[ska invita]

What makes you think that? The ERG and their fellow travellers inside and outside Parliament have shown pretty consistently that no workable deal will satisfy them and no achievable form of Brexit will be acceptable.

Lets come back to this in the new year.

My feeling is like Johnson is doing right now, its a case of push the narrative as far as you can, and take what you can get. I doubt very many actively want to crash out - especially as crashing out still means doing a deal down the line. Theyve already secured a much harder Brexit than was ever floated. Most will be on board. Those whose eyes swivel in their sleep will be given a triple whisky and patted on the back down the club.

Worth recalling what Nigel Farage has said over the years....at one point it was all Look at Norway, We Can Be Norway! - once that battle was won it was Lets Crash Out > moving the Brexit Overton Window as victory after victory was notched up.

You've got to give it our ruling class, they're very good at rigging, playing, and then winning the game, on their terms. The rest of the UK are just bystanders here - left for dust, wondering whats next in store for us.

 

[brogdale]

You think the Tory press will be praising Johnson when the images show empty shelves in shops and lorries lined up across Kent as if it were some kind of misjudged Guinness World Record attempt?

Who do you think they'll blame?

 

[Roadkill]

That may be their golden rule, but at a time when their press will be lauding Johnson as our national saviour to the 'red-wallers' they won't make their move against him.

Perhaps, but the 'red wallers' and the ERG shade off into one another. Besides, give it a few weeks of shortages, company bankruptcies and general bad news, and I suspect even the most Brexity press outlets will start to go a bit cold on the 'national saviour' nonsense!

Lets come back to this in the new year.

My feeling is like Johnson is doing right now, its a case of push the narrative as far as you can, and take what you can get. I doubt very many actively want to crash out - especially as crashing out still means doing a deal down the line. Theyve already secured a much harder Brexit than was ever floated. Most will be on board. Those whose eyes swivel in their sleep will be given a triple whisky and patted on the back down the club.

Worth recalling what Nigel Farage has said over the years....at one point it was all Look at Norway, We Can Be Norway! - once that battle was won it was Lets Crash Out > moving the Brexit Overton Window as victory after victory was notched up.

You've got to give it our ruling class, they're very good at rigging, playing, and then winning the game, on their terms. The rest of the UK are just bystanders here - left for dust, wondering whats next in store for us.

Nothing else we can do except see how things develop and revisit the question in the new year! However, I think your point about Farage is the key one here, and it's not just him: it's the ERG types in Parliament who've been steadily nudging Brexit in a harder and harder direction. I'm not sure they're realist enough to see how much disruption that's likely to cause, but am sure that they'll be running round like headless chickens trying to find someone on whom to pin the blame. It's all they ever do.

As for 'our ruling class,' ultimately that's what Brexit comes down to - a split in the ruling class between those who don't want to upset the apple cart and those who've drunk the Brexit Kool-Aid and are pissed out their minds on vague ideas of sovereignty and an ill-disguised belief that outside the EU Britain can move a lot further in a libertarian direction than it could within.

 

[weltweit]

I think the Tory hard brexiters are more influential than some give them credit for. If having left the EU our compromises over a free trade deal mean we effectively return to shared sovereignty, they won't wear it. And a level playing field and enforcement mechanism do require the UK to compromise.

Personally, the attractiveness of free trade mean compromise is worth it, but I have never been very excited by sovereignty.

 

[ska invita]

Also history doesnt stop on 1st Jan. Whatever deal is done* can be pushed, edged, broken, in the years to come. This is far from the end, its more the end of the beginning.

(*if it is done that is!)

 

[agricola]

You think the Tory press will be praising Johnson when the images show empty shelves in shops and lorries lined up across Kent as if it were some kind of misjudged Guinness World Record attempt?

Honestly? Yes.

 

[brogdale]

Also history doesnt stop on 1st Jan. Whatever deal is done* can be pushed, edged, broken, in the years to come. This is far from the end, its more the end of the beginning.

(*if it is done that is!)

Channelling Churchill?

 

[xenon]

I think the Tory hard brexiters are more influential than some give them credit for. If having left the EU our compromises over a free trade deal mean we effectively return to shared sovereignty, they won't wear it. And a level playing field and enforcement mechanism do require the UK to compromise.

Personally, the attractiveness of free trade mean compromise is worth it, but I have never been very excited by sovereignty.

The only thing I'm interested in them wearing is a noose. Failing that, hurled off their beloved cliffs of Dover, I'd settle for that.

</ angry man on the interwebs mode>

 

[Pickman's model]

The only thing I'm interested in them wearing is a noose. Failing that, hurled off their beloved cliffs of Dover, I'd settle for that.

</ angry man on the interwebs mode>

Surely you could get a larger and indeed more appreciative audience if you hoisted them up to the top of Nelson's column and in true buccaneering style forced them to walk a plank

 

[philosophical]

Thankfully remainers are on a spectrum. Philosophical at the crazed loon end and others, perhaps considering the impact of the peoples vote campaign heading towards the other end.

You are not short of an opinion.
My opinion is you're a brexit voting cunt who voted for trouble on the Irish border and 'cannon and machine' guns trained on our neighbours.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

That's the Spirit!

 

[Puddy_Tat]

Actually, who do we think would be a worse poet - a vogon, or John Redwood?

have you any proof he's not a vogon?

Vogons are described as "one of the most unpleasant races in the galaxy—not actually evil, but bad-tempered, bureaucratic, officious and callous", and having "as much sex appeal as a road accident" as well as being the authors of "the third worst poetry in the universe".

 

[Kevbad the Bad]

Also history doesnt stop on 1st Jan. Whatever deal is done* can be pushed, edged, broken, in the years to come. This is far from the end, its more the end of the beginning.

Are you sure it's not just the beginning of the end of the beginning?

 

[Pickman's model]

Are you sure it's not just the beginning of the end of the beginning?

Every end is a new beginning

 

[Roadkill]

have you any proof he's not a vogon?

Yes. 'Bad-tempered, bureaucratic, officious and callous,' and having 'as much sex appeal as a road accident' is pretty much a perfect description of Edward Leigh. Therefore he must be a vogon, and if he is then John Redwood can't be, unless vogons can shape-shift. Stands to reason.

 

[xenon]

Surely you could get a larger and indeed more appreciative audience if you hoisted them up to the top of Nelson's column and in true buccaneering style forced them to walk a plank

An idea certainly not without merit. Wonderful Sunday afternoon viewing.

 

[quiet guy]

View attachment 243337

Plenty of room up there for the rest of the cabinet to be hung up

 

[brogdale]

have you any proof he's not a vogon?

Ballard might demur.

 

[Roadkill]

One thing British politicians are all too apt to forget is that mainland Europeans do follow what's happening in Britain, so their jingoistic drivel intended to keep Mail readers on side makes their job of negotiating the future all the more difficult.

 

[brogdale]

One thing British politicians are all too apt to forget is that mainland Europeans do follow what's happening in Britain, so their jingoistic drivel intended to keep Mail readers on side makes their job of negotiating the future all the more difficult.

I don't think they forget it or care.

 

[SpookyFrank]

Who do you think they'll blame?

Corbyn

 

[Roadkill]

I don't think they forget it or care.

Tbf it depends who we're referring to, I suppose. Coming from some journalists and the ERG types it probably is deliberate in a lot of cases: they can't quite burn the country's bridges, but the more damage they can do the better from their point of view. Coming from those not trying to force a no-deal it's so completely guileless that I suspect it really is just parochialism, stupidity and British-public-school arrogance.