The big Brexit thread - news, updates and discussion

[Roadkill]

If he’s weighing up shitstorms he’s got to be thinking that a deal however crap is better than none. Nobody cares about the details, if he can announce a great triumph and also not have empty fruit & veg sections in supermarkets he’ll just do that won’t he?

Well, that would be the rational thing to do, certainly, but I wouldn't put money on it.

 

[Roadkill]

Don't bank on it:
Leading the polls today
Successfully stuck it to the EU
Got Brexit Done
Fought hard for a deal
Great brinkmanship
Nationalist press jubilant
Victory bounce
Five more years!
...just as likely an outcome

All true, but there's also the next couple of weeks to consider. If he does a deal the hardliners will scream betrayal, and if he doesn't there'll be chaos and who knows what political ructions.

 

[Pickman's model]

If he’s weighing up shitstorms he’s got to be thinking that a deal however crap is better than none. Nobody cares about the details, if he can announce a great triumph and also not have empty fruit & veg sections in supermarkets he’ll just do that won’t he?

Johnson shares May's view that a bad deal is worse than no deal

 

[bimble]

Johnson shares May's view that a bad deal is worse than no deal

That slogans got a lot to answer for I think.

 

[Ax^]

the odd thing about fishing being such an issue is that the rules for having a foreign own boat list as a British fishing vessel is quite slack atm
and no ones mentioned tightening up the rules

so odd hill for the uk to die upon

but its about fighting for British sovereignty

 

[Roadkill]

That slogans got a lot to answer for I think.

Theresa May has a lot to answer for. Ultimately it was in her gift to try and forge a consensus around a 'soft Brexit' that took the UK out of the EU's political structures whilst causing minimal disruption, damage and division. Instead she decided to listen to hardline morons like Nick Timothy and tried to be more UKIP than UKIP.

 

[Roadkill]

the odd thing about fishing being such an issue is that the rules for having a foreign own boat list as a British fishing vessel is quite slack atm
and no ones mentioned tightening up the rules

so odd hill for the uk to die upon

but its about fighting for British sovereignty

That is because almost none of the people droning on about fishing understand the first thing about it.

 

[not-bono-ever]

End all slogans now!

 

[ska invita]

If he does a deal the hardliners will scream betrayal,

Most will be on board

 

[Pickman's model]

On I'm sorry I haven't a clue today piccaninny redefined as Tory leadership contest

Wonder when we'll next see such an event

 

[Roadkill]

Most will be on board

What makes you think that? The ERG and their fellow travellers inside and outside Parliament have shown pretty consistently that no workable deal will satisfy them and no achievable form of Brexit will be acceptable.

 

[Pickman's model]

End all slogans now!

Down with this sort of thing

 

[Pickman's model]

What makes you think that? The ERG and their fellow travellers inside and outside Parliament have shown pretty consistently that no workable deal will satisfy them and no achievable form of Brexit will be acceptable.

The erg are in talks with the vogons for the UK and dependant territories to be saved from the destruction of the rest of the planet to make way for a galactic bypass. They say this will be a satisfactory departure from the eu

 

[Roadkill]

The erg are in talks with the vogons for the UK and dependant territories to be saved from the destruction of the rest of the planet to make way for a galactic bypass. They say this will be a satisfactory departure from the eu

Let us hope the talks include poetry readings.

Actually, who do we think would be a worse poet - a vogon, or John Redwood?

 

[SpookyFrank]

That slogans got a lot to answer for I think.

Would help if we had leaders who could keep more than three words in their head at a time.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Would help if we had leaders who could keep more than three words in their head at a time.

Probably Cummings' biggest contribution to politics, successfully reducing entire campaigns over complex issues to three-word, four-syllable tabloid headlines that include an imperative verb form.

 

[brogdale]

All true, but there's also the next couple of weeks to consider. If he does a deal the hardliners will scream betrayal, and if he doesn't there'll be chaos and who knows what political ructions.

Not sure there'll actually be much screaming of betrayal from his own party, tbh.
Sure the Faragist fringe will bleat, but the tory party will, I suspect, demonstrate significant, tribal loyalty and reveal that much of the ERG-style sabre-rattling was a confected shroud that Johnson could wave in front of the 'Europeans'. Most of the swivel-eyed loons will, after all, be winning much more than they feared when in the mire with May.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Not sure there'll actually be much screaming of betrayal from his own party, tbh.
Sure the Faragist fringe will bleat, but the tory party will, I suspect, demonstrate significant, tribal loyalty and reveal that much of the ERG-style sabre-rattling was a confected shroud that Johnson could wave in front of the 'Europeans'. Most of the swivel-eyed loons will, after all, be winning much more than they feared when in the mire with May.

What do they win that they wouldn't have got with the May deal they rejected?

Agreeing to some form of 'ratchet up' isn't so different from the NI backstop but applied to the whole of the UK.

 

[Artaxerxes]

Don't bank on it:
Leading the polls today
Successfully stuck it to the EU
Got Brexit Done
Fought hard for a deal
Great brinkmanship
Nationalist press jubilant
Victory bounce
Shit moaning opposition
Five more years!
...just as likely an outcome

This is way to long for a haiku

 

[brogdale]

What do they win that they wouldn't have got with the May deal they rejected?

May's deal was the Withdrawal Agreement, not a trade deal. The mire I referred to was when it looked like they might not even get a WA without some huge concession, even a 2nd ref.

 

[Roadkill]

Not sure there'll actually be much screaming of betrayal from his own party, tbh.
Sure the Faragist fringe will bleat, but the tory party will, I suspect, demonstrate significant, tribal loyalty and reveal that much of the ERG-style sabre-rattling was a confected shroud that Johnson could wave in front of the 'Europeans'. Most of the swivel-eyed loons will, after all, be winning much more than they feared when in the mire with May.

That is true, but I can't help thinking you're attributing more reasonableness to these people than they've shown themselves to be capable of. Moreover, even the kind of deal that can be struck now will be disruptive, and their response - almost as a reflex action - will probably be to huff and puff about Brexit not having been done properly.

 

[Pickman's model]

Let us hope the talks include poetry readings.

Actually, who do we think would be a worse poet - a vogon, or John Redwood?

Redwood's verse has won him many admirers among the vogons

 

[littlebabyjesus]

May's deal was the Withdrawal Agreement, not a trade deal. The mire I referred to was when it looked like they might not even get a WA without some huge concession, even a 2nd ref.

Ok fair point on the WA. But it would have passed had they not opposed it. Like brexit itself the chaos that followed was entirely of their own making. And I don't see anything happening right now that is somehow 'more brexitty' than would have been likely with a May-style deal. They've changed the personnel is all.

Exactly the same fundamental issue remains. EU is massive trading bloc. UK wants access. UK had full access. UK has to follow EU rules to keep full access. Anything less than full access means disruption. WTO-style zero privileges means chaos.

 

[Roadkill]

Redwood's verse has won him many admirers among the vogons

No, that was just his attempt to sing the Welsh national anthem.

 

[brogdale]

That is true, but I can't help thinking you're attributing more reasonableness to these people than they've shown themselves to be capable of. Moreover, even the kind of deal that can be struck now will be disruptive, and their response - almost as a reflex action - will probably be to huff and puff about Brexit not having been done properly.

No, they're not reasonable; they're tory cunts. But that's the point, when the shit starts to hit the fan they'll rally round for the most part and join Johnson's bunker mentality safe in the knowledge that the great, neoliberal leap forward has been secured. For some of them their career's work done.

 

[xenon]

If he’s weighing up shitstorms he’s got to be thinking that a deal however crap is better than none. Nobody cares about the details, if he can announce a great triumph and also not have empty fruit & veg sections in supermarkets he’ll just do that won’t he? Some people will complain that it’s not the proper brexit they ordered but they’d probably find a way to sing that song of betrayal anyway.

you'd think. But the ERG lot in his party, blue passport UKIP type brexiteer nutters Daily Mail, will go mental.

IMO Should a no deal scenario come to pass and lead to shortages, in medicines food, that lot should feel the anger, not in the ballot box or comment sections, but on the street.

 

[brogdale]

The internecine threat to the tory party was greatest when the competing factions of the party were fighting over the mechanism. With the result in there'll be a period of unified blame casting, rebuttal, political attack and work to capitalise in 2023/4.

 

[andysays]

What makes you think that? The ERG and their fellow travellers inside and outside Parliament have shown pretty consistently that no workable deal will satisfy them and no achievable form of Brexit will be acceptable.

Given the size of Johnson's majority (and the fact that Starmer appears not to have much stomach for actually opposing), I don't think the ERG have the parliamentary power to prevent any deal which Johnson might manage to do.

 

[not a trot]

That is because almost none of the people droning on about fishing understand the first thing about it.

Doubt if the fish give a fuck either.

 

[Roadkill]

No, they're not reasonable; they're tory cunts. But that's the point, when the shit starts to hit the fan they'll rally round for the most part and join Johnson's bunker mentality safe in the knowledge that the great, neoliberal leap forward has been secured. For some of them their career's work done.

You reckon?! I think they'll defenestrate Johnson in short order!

e2a - pressed 'post' by mistake before I'd finished. I think a lot of them genuinely believe there's some sort of perfect Brexit option that gives them the sovereignty* they crave whilst not causing any economic damage, and they'll blame Johnson for not delivering it.

* of which their vision is completely unrealistic, of course