The big Brexit thread - news, updates and discussion

[two sheds]

China, as with pretty much the rest of the non EU world usually falls under existing EU agreements - we dont have a FTA with china yet- would be tricky to set up. We dont have the expertise in house to to sort out trading agreements easily- we have relied upon the EU to spearhead these kind of things. It can be done but we will be ripped by those who construct advatageous bully deals as a living eg the USA

That's silly, we can just use existing agreements but cross out European Union and insert Britain in crayon

 

[maomao]

Stuff produced and sold here will not necessarily go up in price?

It will without competition from imports. For example we only produce 10% of our own tomatoes. The pressure on tomato imports will reflect in the price of British grown tomatoes.

 

[Fez909]

Johnson knows he can uturn at any moment and bluster any last minute deal as a magnificent hard fought xmas present etc etc, and no one will give a shit that he just said yesterday that No prime minister could ever allow it etc

This is what I reckon will happen.

He's u-turned so many times, it's clearly not a problem for him.

The idea of food & medicine shortages and grounded planes is too much for even the Tories to handle. I think there will be another extension to the transition period, but obviously it can't b called that - it will be rebranded like the "agreement in principle" on the Irish border.

 

[TopCat]

eta, the EU are likely to well machiavellian about future deals with other places and push that they get priority over the UK

All those goods the EU sell us, you dont think this will effect attitudes?

 

[Fez909]

It will without competition from imports. For example we only produce 10% of our own tomatoes. The pressure on tomato imports will reflect in the price of British grown tomatoes.

But lobster should get cheaper, yeah?

 

[TopCat]

It will without competition from imports. For example we only produce 10% of our own tomatoes. The pressure on tomato imports will reflect in the price of British grown tomatoes.

I'm pretty certain we can grow more tomatoes.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

This is what I reckon will happen.

He's u-turned so many times, it's clearly not a problem for him.

The idea of food & medicine shortages and grounded planes is too much for even the Tories to handle. I think there will be another extension to the transition period, but obviously it can't b called that - it will be rebranded like the "agreement in principle" on the Irish border.

This is still my guess. But I'm not ruling anything out any more with the Clown Show.

 

[TopCat]

Medicine shortages could have a catastrophic impact. I recollect well the EU restricting the Greeks access to meds.

 

[maomao]

I'm pretty certain we can grow more tomatoes.

By a factor of ten? Immediately?

 

[Pickman's model]

This is what I reckon will happen.

He's u-turned so many times, it's clearly not a problem for him.

The idea of food & medicine shortages and grounded planes is too much for even the Tories to handle. I think there will be another extension to the transition period, but obviously it can't b called that - it will be rebranded like the "agreement in principle" on the Irish border.

The deadline for agreeing an extension to the transition period passed on june

 

[TopCat]

By a factor of ten? Immediately?

Yeah. Well, ready for 2021 harvest!

 

[The39thStep]

Now we are staring at no deal, hyperbole aside, what do you all predict will actually happen?

In the event of a no deal there's a reasonable summary here.

Nine things you need to know about a no-deal Brexit

FT writers look at the impact of a failure to agree a trade deal, from sterling to food supplies

www.ft.com

 

[TopCat]

Brie shortages are no biggie. Meds are a huge thing.

 

[Raheem]

This is what I reckon will happen.

He's u-turned so many times, it's clearly not a problem for him.

The idea of food & medicine shortages and grounded planes is too much for even the Tories to handle. I think there will be another extension to the transition period, but obviously it can't b called that - it will be rebranded like the "agreement in principle" on the Irish border.

I think HMG have been relying on the idea that a further extension would be always available as an off-ramp, but the EU seem to be not so keen, and might possibly prefer a cliff-edge, because it's not clear that extended offers a way forward, as opposed to just a delay.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Brie shortages are no biggie. Meds are a huge thing.

It's not just brie shortages, though, is it? If you wander around Lidl and look at the range of food that comes from the EU, there's all kinds of stuff. There is also British-grown food, but as pointed out, that's likely to go up in price as well - given that farmers are about to lose subsidies, it will have to anyway.

 

[mauvais]

I'm looking forward to the... tomato-based economy that we've been aspiring to for so long.

 

[TopCat]

In the event of a no deal there's a reasonable summary here.

Nine things you need to know about a no-deal Brexit

FT writers look at the impact of a failure to agree a trade deal, from sterling to food supplies

www.ft.com

I cant access it boo.

 

[Fez909]

I think HMG have been relying on the idea that a further extension would be always available as an off-ramp, but the EU seem to be not so keen, and might possibly prefer a cliff-edge, because it's not clear that it offers a way forward, as opposed to just a delay.

I agree it doesn't solve anything, but it also doesn't cause chaos - so that's preferable to everyone without swivel eyes.

The EU are obviously not dependent on us, but the very real hit that no deal would cause them will mean an extensions is always on the table, IMO.

 

[The39thStep]

I cant access it boo.

Ill see if I can cut and paste it

 

[Fez909]

The deadline for agreeing an extension to the transition period passed on june

There's no such thing as a deadline when it comes to these things. If the EU and the UK decided to extend, then they'll extend.

 

[TopCat]

There's no such thing as a deadline when it comes to these things. If the EU and the UK decided to extend, then they'll extend.

It's the end of the road.

 

[Poot]

Yeah. Well, ready for 2021 harvest!

And these people who are going to do this, what land are they using and what is it currently used for? You need some pretty specialist conditions and apparatus for growing tomatoes. Or any other thing that is difficult to grow in the UK. We're good at growing daffodils down here, maybe we can eat those.

 

[maomao]

Yeah. Well, ready for 2021 harvest!

Doubt it. The government could have spent 2020 handing out compost bins and getting people to build raised beds in their gardens, it would have been a brilliant use of lockdown but the free market won't take care of it. Especially with prices going up across the board, where's the motivation to produce and where's the land going to come from?

 

[littlebabyjesus]

I agree with Fez. There are still ways and means to get an extension that isn't called an extension. An interim agreement, for instance, in which the UK agrees for one or two years to abide by all EU standards in return for tariff-free trade, with in principle the option to renew or withdraw from it after that point. We'd probably still get a lot of the cunty new travel restrictions and work restrictions, so Johnson can wave those around to impress the people who are impressed by that kind of thing.

 

[TopCat]

And these people who are going to do this, what land are they using and what is it currently used for? You need some pretty specialist conditions and apparatus for growing tomatoes. Or any other thing that is difficult to grow in the UK. We're good at growing daffodils down here, maybe we can eat those.

Doubt it. The government could have spent 2020 handing out compost bins and getting people to build raised beds in their gardens, it would have been a brilliant use of lockdown but the free market won't take care of it. Especially with prices going up across the board, where's the motivation to produce and where's the land going to come from?

Farmers rent land. Loads of landowners have threatened to give up after the EU tit is removed from their mouths.

 

[TopCat]

I agree with Fez. There are still ways and means to get an extension that isn't called an extension. An interim agreement, for instance, in which the UK agrees for one or two years to abide by all EU standards in return for tariff-free trade, with in principle the option to renew or withdraw from it after that point. We'd probably still get a lot of the cunty new travel restrictions and work restrictions, so Johnson can wave those around to impress the people who are impressed by that kind of thing.

The EU would demand billions and total compliance.

 

[Poot]

Farmers rent land. Loads of landowners have threatened to give up after the EU tit is removed from their mouths.

Landowners don't give up land. It becomes more expensive if it looks like there might be demand for it.

 

[editor]

It's the end of the road.

And a cliff drop awaits.

 

[TopCat]

And a cliff drop awaits.

How will that look?

 

[TopCat]

Landowners don't give up land. It becomes more expensive if it looks like there might be demand for it.

You perhaps haven't thought this through.