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Russian Victory Day!

kebabking said:
I think it would be an error to think that just because he's not mentioned it today, that some kind of full/partial mobilisation, or taking Russia to a full war footing is off the table.

That said, if he was to go down that road, he might have 700,000+ plus men to throw into battle but what tanks has he got to give them, what Artillery has he got to give them, what logistics has he got to keep them fed?

Russia keeps a huge number of tanks et al in storage, but this is stuff from the 60's and 70's, and stuff that didn't get the upgrades through the 80's, 90's, and so on - there's the question about whether much of it will even start with batteries that haven't been turned over in 20+ years, then there's what state will the ammunition be in.

This doesn't touch what will happen to them when the Ukrainians start putting Javelins through them...

The caveat to this is that the Red Army of WWII, which our friend apparently reveres, effectively drowned the German Army is Russian blood. Losses of 10-1 were acceptable to Uncle Joe because he could afford the 10, but Hitler couldn't afford the 1.

Perhaps Vlad thinks he can afford to loose 3,000 tanks and their crews because he'll have 3,000 left, but that once the Ukrainians destroy 3,000 tanks, they'll have run out of missiles for tgre next wave....
Click to expand...
It might not be off the table but it gets harder to do the longer he leaves it given the timescale in turning grumpy Russian teens into bloodthirsty orcs.
 
Artaxerxes said:
Victory Claus
Click to expand...
Like it.
dont-smile.jpg
 
kebabking said:
I think it would be an error to think that just because he's not mentioned it today, that some kind of full/partial mobilisation, or taking Russia to a full war footing is off the table.

That said, if he was to go down that road, he might have 700,000+ plus men to throw into battle but what tanks has he got to give them, what Artillery has he got to give them, what logistics has he got to keep them fed?

Russia keeps a huge number of tanks et al in storage, but this is stuff from the 60's and 70's, and stuff that didn't get the upgrades through the 80's, 90's, and so on - there's the question about whether much of it will even start with batteries that haven't been turned over in 20+ years, then there's what state will the ammunition be in.

This doesn't touch what will happen to them when the Ukrainians start putting Javelins through them...

The caveat to this is that the Red Army of WWII, which our friend apparently reveres, effectively drowned the German Army is Russian blood. Losses of 10-1 were acceptable to Uncle Joe because he could afford the 10, but Hitler couldn't afford the 1.

Perhaps Vlad thinks he can afford to loose 3,000 tanks and their crews because he'll have 3,000 left, but that once the Ukrainians destroy 3,000 tanks, they'll have run out of missiles for tgre next wave....
Click to expand...
That is the problem, stockpiles will be running low, can enough be produced fast enough to keep knocking out Russian tanks? Very possibly not.
 
Comment I've seen from a Russian today (not from Russia Today):
"Victory Day (May 9) has been one of the biggest state holidays in Russia for many years. In the last 10-15 years, I watched the public narrative turn from "never again" to "we can repeat". Loud parades and concerts, military symbols all over every city, children wearing soldiers' uniform and holding tank-shaped balloons.
I never got it. The change scared me.
Then again, I never understood "the right of the strong" and using violence to get what you want. Today, I think about my grandfather and I can't imagine he'd support the "can repeat" attitude."
 
kebabking said:
I think it would be an error to think that just because he's not mentioned it today, that some kind of full/partial mobilisation, or taking Russia to a full war footing is off the table.

That said, if he was to go down that road, he might have 700,000+ plus men to throw into battle but what tanks has he got to give them, what Artillery has he got to give them, what logistics has he got to keep them fed?

Russia keeps a huge number of tanks et al in storage, but this is stuff from the 60's and 70's, and stuff that didn't get the upgrades through the 80's, 90's, and so on - there's the question about whether much of it will even start with batteries that haven't been turned over in 20+ years, then there's what state will the ammunition be in.

This doesn't touch what will happen to them when the Ukrainians start putting Javelins through them...

The caveat to this is that the Red Army of WWII, which our friend apparently reveres, effectively drowned the German Army is Russian blood. Losses of 10-1 were acceptable to Uncle Joe because he could afford the 10, but Hitler couldn't afford the 1.

Perhaps Vlad thinks he can afford to loose 3,000 tanks and their crews because he'll have 3,000 left, but that once the Ukrainians destroy 3,000 tanks, they'll have run out of missiles for tgre next wave....
Click to expand...
The phrase "winning to death" is regularly used to describe the Germans' campaign in Ukraine in WWII, but it is beginning to look as if it could apply equally to the Russian army in 2022.

ETA: and it was the same logistical fuckups, and overreach of aims, that did for the Nazi forces...
 
Last edited:
frogwoman said:


It's also Victory Day in Ukraine. Here's Zelensky's speech marking the occasion
Click to expand...

What's interesting about this is that the vibe of the speech is very similar to the way his character in "Servant Of The People" would invoke the sayings of philosophical/historical figures. Life, imitating art, imitating life, imitating art. All very matryoshka :)
 
existentialist said:
What's interesting about this is that the vibe of the speech is very similar to the way his character in "Servant Of The People" would invoke the sayings of philosophical/historical figures. Life, imitating art, imitating life, imitating art. All very matryoshka :)
Click to expand...
either that or everything he does is playing a part
 
emanymton said:
That is the problem, stockpiles will be running low, can enough be produced fast enough to keep knocking out Russian tanks? Very possibly not.
Click to expand...
True of some kit, but worth remember other kit which ain't bad only ended up starting to be supplied quite late on cos it had German components and the Germans did nt want any disruption to their then policy of appease the Russuand
 
existentialist said:
The phrase "winning to death" is regularly used to describe the Germans' campaign in Ukraine in WWII, but it is beginning to look as if it could apply equally to the Russian army in 2022.

ETA: and it was the same logistical fuckups, and overreach of aims, that did for the Nazi forces...
Click to expand...

Not sure about that bit - yes, there was a confusion of aims (especially in 1941 and 1942) and yes the logistical supply broke down (under a lot of pressure) but it was the decision to invade that did for them. Even at the time there was widespread concern at whether it could be done and, looking back at it now, it was probably almost impossible given all the other factors (how little the Germans actually understood of what was happening further into the Soviet Union for a start, plus the extermination campaigns resulting in such widespread and serious resistance, and of course the support given by the other Allies).

Compared to that decision, I don't think this invasion is anywhere near as poorly thought out. I mean, there is still a relatively good chance of a victory especially if the limit is the Donbas.
 
kebabking said:
I think it would be an error to think that just because he's not mentioned it today, that some kind of full/partial mobilisation, or taking Russia to a full war footing is off the table.

That said, if he was to go down that road, he might have 700,000+ plus men to throw into battle but what tanks has he got to give them, what Artillery has he got to give them, what logistics has he got to keep them fed?

Russia keeps a huge number of tanks et al in storage, but this is stuff from the 60's and 70's, and stuff that didn't get the upgrades through the 80's, 90's, and so on - there's the question about whether much of it will even start with batteries that haven't been turned over in 20+ years, then there's what state will the ammunition be in.

This doesn't touch what will happen to them when the Ukrainians start putting Javelins through them...

The caveat to this is that the Red Army of WWII, which our friend apparently reveres, effectively drowned the German Army is Russian blood. Losses of 10-1 were acceptable to Uncle Joe because he could afford the 10, but Hitler couldn't afford the 1.

Perhaps Vlad thinks he can afford to loose 3,000 tanks and their crews because he'll have 3,000 left, but that once the Ukrainians destroy 3,000 tanks, they'll have run out of missiles for tgre next wave....
Click to expand...
Going by various info sources, the Russians appear to have about 2500 operational tanks and of those around 2000 are 'combat ready'. The eye-watering 12,000-20,000 tanks figure bandied around in some publications and websites includes tanks that are in storage to be either brought back into service or stripped for parts. I saw a video that discusses this issue, I'm not sure how accurate it is but it sounds reasonable:



In the linked video* the producer analysed tons of satellite images, trawled russian military forums, reviewed treaty agreements going back a couple of decades and looked for the locations of reserve bases across Russia to see what stored armour was visible. Here's a summary for those who don't have the time to watch it:
  • Of the bases featured, around 25-50% of the stored vehicles were assessed to be useable with the remaining tanks being mostly inoperative.
  • Based on what the video content has determined, they have around 6000 tanks in storage of which around 3000 are in a condition where they can be brought back into service.
  • The other issue Russia has is that the stored tanks are very much a mixed bag that includes some T-90's, over 1000 T80's, several thousand T72's as well as older T-64's, T-62's, T-55's, T54's as well as some T-34's (for victory day parades etc).
  • Of these stored units, the ones that are in the easiest restoration condition are the T-72/80/90.
The conclusion was that at least 30% of Russia's stock of tanks are permanently fucked beyond use and of the remaining ones in storage, most would take too long to get back into operational use or are too obsolete to be effective.


*about a minute and a half in there's an ad for some computer game, spool forwards to 02:49 to resume the content...
 
agricola said:
Not sure about that bit - yes, there was a confusion of aims (especially in 1941 and 1942) and yes the logistical supply broke down (under a lot of pressure) but it was the decision to invade that did for them. Even at the time there was widespread concern at whether it could be done and, looking back at it now, it was probably almost impossible given all the other factors (how little the Germans actually understood of what was happening further into the Soviet Union for a start, plus the extermination campaigns resulting in such widespread and serious resistance, and of course the support given by the other Allies).

Compared to that decision, I don't think this invasion is anywhere near as poorly thought out. I mean, there is still a relatively good chance of a victory especially if the limit is the Donbas.
Click to expand...

Really? Barbarsossa pushed the Russian all the way back to Moscow and past Kiev in its first four months and the Russians suffered huge losses - they could easily have lost. They had a bit of luck in that they learnt that Japan had no plans to attack so were able to redeploy their far eastern forces -(some of their best troops led by their best general - Zhukov) just in time to save Moscow. So yeah - the Germans could have won.
Yes it was a gamble, they were overconfident and made serious errors - didnt think they need winter clothing and they underestimated the reliance of the USSR and its military strength - but in terms of combat effectiveness, logistics, planning, tactics, equipment - the Germans were on their game. Putin's assault on Ukraine has been a shambles from the start. Jaw dropping ineptitude and incompetence at every level.
 
This from yesterday was a bit shit!




(Video description - suburban, large flooded area, with plain-looking 5-storey flats in the background, surrounded by industrial pipes. Woman speaking in Russian over a brass band.)
 
agricola said:
Not sure about that bit - yes, there was a confusion of aims (especially in 1941 and 1942) and yes the logistical supply broke down (under a lot of pressure) but it was the decision to invade that did for them. Even at the time there was widespread concern at whether it could be done and, looking back at it now, it was probably almost impossible given all the other factors (how little the Germans actually understood of what was happening further into the Soviet Union for a start, plus the extermination campaigns resulting in such widespread and serious resistance, and of course the support given by the other Allies).

Compared to that decision, I don't think this invasion is anywhere near as poorly thought out. I mean, there is still a relatively good chance of a victory especially if the limit is the Donbas.
Click to expand...
The logistics just weren't up to it - very poor standardisation of vehicles, and a logistics and maintenance chain that couldn't hope to keep up with the necessary supply of spare parts and consumables for such a rag-tag collection of stuff. And people at the lower levels, and to some extent all the way up to OKW level...but nobody wanted to actually tell Hitler that they couldn't deliver on what he was expecting them to do.

Other miscalculations - they planned on using the Soviet rail network for their materiel and troop movements, but didn't account for the fact that the Red Army destroyed every locomotive they couldn't take with them; then there was the realisation that German locomotives were no good on 5 foot gauge track, and so it went on. And, always, just as with the Russian endeavour, the word from head office was "press on! press on! We are better than those untermensch/khokols!". The situations may not be identical, but they have a lot in common...and the mindset and culture behind both was very, very similar.

ETA: I suppose one possible difference is the level of corruption...but then the German High Command didn't seem to go short of a schloss or two, nor the artwork with which to furnish it...
 
A couple of journalists at a pro-Putin website (the only kind allowed now in Russia) filled it with anti-war articles this morning.

One said, “We had to do it today. We wanted to remind everyone what our grandfathers really fought for on this beautiful Victory Day – for peace."

“Ordinary people are dying, peaceful women and children are dying in Ukraine. Given the rhetoric that we have seen, this isn’t going to stop. We couldn’t accept this any longer. This was the only right thing we could do.”

Polyakov, who works as a business reporter at Lenta, said he and his colleague Alexandra Miroshnikova published more than 40 articles critical of the Kremlin and its actions in Ukraine. The articles have since been taken down, but can be accessed through a web archive tool.

Lenta, one of the largest sites in the country with more than 200 million monthly visitors, has been part of the relentless propaganda machine used to justify Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Click to expand...

‘Paranoid dictator’: Russian journalists fill pro-Kremlin site with anti-war articles

Polyakov and Miroshkina also published a personal letter on the website, which urged readers: “Don’t be afraid! Don’t be silent! Fight back! You are not alone, there are many of us! The future is ours!”

“Of course I am afraid,” Polyakov said. “I am not ashamed to admit that. But I knew what I was doing, what the consequences could be.”

Aside from this, pro-Ukrainian hackers took down RuTube last night, and local TV menus had programme descriptions replaced with "The blood of thousands of Ukrainians and hundreds of murdered children is on your hands. TV and the authorities are lying. No to war.” :thumbs:
 
Kaka Tim said:
Really? Barbarsossa pushed the Russian all the way back to Moscow and past Kiev in its first four months and the Russians suffered huge losses - they could easily have lost. They had a bit of luck in that they learnt that Japan had no plans to attack so were able to redeploy their far eastern forces -(some of their best troops led by their best general - Zhukov) just in time to save Moscow. So yeah - the Germans could have won.
Yes it was a gamble, they were overconfident and made serious errors - didnt think they need winter clothing and they underestimated the reliance of the USSR and its military strength - but in terms of combat effectiveness, logistics, planning, tactics, equipment - the Germans were on their game. Putin's assault on Ukraine has been a shambles from the start. Jaw dropping ineptitude and incompetence at every level.
Click to expand...

Yes. I think the thinking behind the reason to invade - which appeared to be based on what had happened in Western Europe, ie: that with a sufficiently devastating initial attack the enemy would surrender - was fundamentally wrong. Obviously that thinking repeated itself in other ways - not only the failure to procure winter clothing (which they would always have needed), but also the slowdown in military production after the fall of France but before the invasion. They came very close in 1941 to getting to a position to attack Moscow but they'd probably have been no more able to take it than they were able to take Leningrad. Once the Soviets made the decision to keep fighting, the German defeat was almost inevitable.

The Germans did have an advantage in terms of combat effectiveness, planning and tactics but a lot of Soviet equipment was as good as / better in some cases (the Katyusha, the PPSh-41 and the T-34 being the most obvious) albeit whether it was used that effectively was another question.
 
Nylock said:
Going by various info sources, the Russians appear to have about 2500 operational tanks and of those around 2000 are 'combat ready'. The eye-watering 12,000-20,000 tanks figure bandied around in some publications and websites includes tanks that are in storage to be either brought back into service or stripped for parts. I saw a video that discusses this issue, I'm not sure how accurate it is but it sounds reasonable:



In the linked video* the producer analysed tons of satellite images, trawled russian military forums, reviewed treaty agreements going back a couple of decades and looked for the locations of reserve bases across Russia to see what stored armour was visible. Here's a summary for those who don't have the time to watch it:
  • Of the bases featured, around 25-50% of the stored vehicles were assessed to be useable with the remaining tanks being mostly inoperative.
  • Based on what the video content has determined, they have around 6000 tanks in storage of which around 3000 are in a condition where they can be brought back into service.
  • The other issue Russia has is that the stored tanks are very much a mixed bag that includes some T-90's, over 1000 T80's, several thousand T72's as well as older T-64's, T-62's, T-55's, T54's as well as some T-34's (for victory day parades etc).
  • Of these stored units, the ones that are in the easiest restoration condition are the T-72/80/90.
The conclusion was that at least 30% of Russia's stock of tanks are permanently fucked beyond use and of the remaining ones in storage, most would take too long to get back into operational use or are too obsolete to be effective.


*about a minute and a half in there's an ad for some computer game, spool forwards to 02:49 to resume the content...
Click to expand...

Are the Russians counting water tanks as well? :hmm:
 
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