Rochester & Strood by-election

[belboid]

Maybe (just maybe) they're actually beginning to wise up and recognise that bringing in a big name over the heads of local councillors is part of what leads people to be fucked off with their remoteness. Whether it will make any difference in this case remains to be seen.

depends how popular those councillors are, really. It can be a good move, but it's no guarantee

 

[brogdale]

Maybe (just maybe) they're actually beginning to wise up and recognise that bringing in a big name over the heads of local councillors is part of what leads people to be fucked off with their remoteness. Whether it will make any difference in this case remains to be seen.

Or...maybe having a "nobody" helps the potential post-mortem...saving the big name(s) for better prospects?

 

[andysays]

Or...maybe having a "nobody" helps the potential post-mortem...saving the big name(s) for better prospects?

My take on this is that the Tories really need to win this by-election to stop the UKIP surge, rather than lose and then come out with some convincing and persuasive arguments why they lost in the post-mortem.

Plus, we don't know if there will actually be another defection and by-election (I suggest that depends in part in what happens in this one), and the polls suggest that this one is potentially winnable for the Tories in a way that Clacton appeared not to be.

If someone from Tory HQ has decided that what they should do is "throw" this by-election for tactical reasons, I'd be very surprised...

 

[brogdale]

It's going to be on the 20th btw.

 

[brogdale]

This could produce some good Youtube material...any Urbanites down there in Medway?

Voters this time are being invited to quiz the Conservative candidates shortlisted to contest the forthcoming Rochester and Strood by-election at an open hustings meeting.

The public meeting on Wednesday will be held at Rochester’s Corn Exchange and will get underway at 7.30pm.

Admission is free.

 

[brogdale]

At the risk of stating the bleedin' obvious, that poll does suggest it's currently far closer in Rochester than it was in Clacton (if I remember correctly, polls there were giving UKIP/Carswell a clear lead right from the beginning).

I suspect this one will be more closely fought than Clacton, but that Farage and Reckless will have been expecting to win when they announced the switch/resignation plan (they also need to win to keep the momentum going in preparation for the GE).

The Tories will also be aware that they need to stop UKIP here, so they are likely to put far more energy into fighting this by-election than the previous one, where I suspect they realised that they actually had no realistic chance of pulling it back.

Yes, but do remember that what i was posting there was data that excluded the 2010 non-voters. With all respondents included the 'raw' data for the only Rochester poll, thus far, was:-

• CON 31% (-18), LAB 25% (-3), LD 2% (-14), UKIP 40% (+40), OTHER 1% (-5)

...showing that UKIP are appealing to a significant number of previous non-voters....and do bare in mind that the fieldwork for this poll was undertaken well before the Clacton/Heywood results and publicity.

e2a: obvious need for another constituency poll...can't be long now?

 

[marty21]

Maybe (just maybe) they're actually beginning to wise up and recognise that bringing in a big name over the heads of local councillors is part of what leads people to be fucked off with their remoteness. Whether it will make any difference in this case remains to be seen.

UKIP seem to get away with that sort of thing

 

[andysays]

Yes, but do remember that what i was posting there was data that excluded the 2010 non-voters. With all respondents included the 'raw' data for the only Rochester poll, thus far, was:-

• CON 31% (-18), LAB 25% (-3), LD 2% (-14), UKIP 40% (+40), OTHER 1% (-5)

...showing that UKIP are appealing to a significant number of previous non-voters....and do bare in mind that the fieldwork for this poll was undertaken well before the Clacton/Heywood results and publicity.

e2a: obvious need for another constituency poll...can't be long now?

Two very good points

 

[brogdale]

Smithson reckons the money is on Kelly Tolurst winning the open primary.

I suppose that all woman open might well reflect the tories analysis of the gender cross-breaks for UKIP; M > F.

 

[andysays]

UKIP seem to get away with that sort of thing

They also get away with pretending to be anti-establishment

 

[marty21]

They also get away with pretending to be anti-establishment

aye, by poaching members of the establishment

 

[brogdale]

They also get away with pretending to be anti-establishment

Easy to portray "outsider" status when they had no formal representation in Parliament, but now we'll all be able to see just how pro working-class and anti-capitalist Carswell's voting record is...

 

[andysays]

Easy to portray "outsider" status when they had no formal representation in Parliament, but now we'll all be able to see just how pro working-class and anti-capitalist Carswell's voting record is...

Like everyone already does with Labour, you mean?

I think the outsider/anti-establishment business will continue, and continue to be effective, for a while yet, including at the GE, though hopefully not forever.

 

[brogdale]

Like everyone already does with Labour, you mean?

I think the outsider/anti-establishment business will continue, and continue to be effective, for a while yet, including at the GE, though hopefully not forever.

He's easy to keep an eye on, though....

Michael Deacon ✔ @MichaelPDeacon
Follow
MPs are debating devolution and English Votes on English Laws. For some reason I can't see Douglas Carswell. Perhaps not a big Ukip issue

1:58 PM - 14 Oct 2014

 

[brogdale]

Dave writes to the burghers....

Cameron writes: “We’re inviting you – regardless of which party you support – to help us make that decision through a postal primary election. This is a unique and exciting opportunity that the other parties aren’t offering. In fact, it’s only happened a few times before in British history.

“Nigel Farage and Mark Reckless want to turn this election into a national media circus – we want it to be about you and what you want for the future of this area.

“The decision is in your hands. There’s no stunts or backroom deals, just a strong local candidate you can trust.”

cunning

 

[brogdale]

...and Dave says...

....Kelly understands the benefits new investment can provide for local people. But she has also seen the strain that excessive immigration has put on housing and our local services.

“So if she’s elected, Kelly will work hard to secure a better future for our area by pushing for more serious action to get immigration under control....

Gotta be question 1 at the 'hustings", surely?

 

[marty21]

My take on this is that the Tories really need to win this by-election to stop the UKIP surge, rather than lose and then come out with some convincing and persuasive arguments why they lost in the post-mortem.

Plus, we don't know if there will actually be another defection and by-election (I suggest that depends in part in what happens in this one), and the polls suggest that this one is potentially winnable for the Tories in a way that Clacton appeared not to be.

If someone from Tory HQ has decided that what they should do is "throw" this by-election for tactical reasons, I'd be very surprised...

They have to throw the kitchen sink at it, they seemed to give up on Clacton very quickly. Losing 2 in a row to UKIP would be a problem and a fair few Tories might get worried about their seats and might be tempted by loving Farage arms. Even though UKIP do not do well at General Elections and I don't expect them to do well in 2015

 

[Quartz]

How was Reckless rated as a constituency MP?

 

[Dogsauce]

The Primary hustings will be totally fake, stuffed with party members asking carefully vetted questions. Dave knows what he's doing with this. 'No stunts' my arse. The whole thing's a PR stunt.

 

[brogdale]

Smithson reckons the money is on Kelly Tolurst winning the open primary.

I suppose that all woman open might well reflect the tories analysis of the gender cross-breaks for UKIP; M > F.

It's all about the 28% of DK women (shown by the Survation poll) according to Smithson..

 

[tony heath]

....of no possible interest to anyone but its been bugging the hell out of me who Reckless reminds me off....Andrew Gilligan...

he reminds me of Clifford Rose, not sure why

 

[William of Walworth]

Don't think it will be such a walkover for UKIP this time. Tories could just squeak a survival even.

I'm amazed you could look at the poll above and think that

Fair dig but it wasn't just the poll ...

 

[brogdale]

Crick on primaries and expenditure...

http://blogs.channel4.com/michael-crick-on-politics/tory-primary-rochester-breach-spirit-legal-spending-limits/4519

 

[Quartz]

View attachment 62439 he reminds me of Clifford Rose, not sure why

IMHO it's Farage who bears more of a resemblance.

 

[brogdale]

The Primary hustings will be totally fake, stuffed with party members asking carefully vetted questions. Dave knows what he's doing with this. 'No stunts' my arse. The whole thing's a PR stunt.

Sounds like Lab had someone recording though...

One of the two Conservative candidates hoping to stand in the Rochester and Strood byelection says she supports a points-based system of EU immigration that would exclude unskilled workers like “a fruit picker in Romania”.

Anna Firth, a Tory councillor in nearby Sevenoaks, Kent, told a hustings on Wednesday night that Britain was a small island and needed a “sensible immigration system” modelled on the Australian-style system proposed by Ukip, which would only allow in people with a certain level of skills.

According to a recording of the meeting, Firth said: “I think we need the same immigration system that we have, the five points system, which currently applies to people coming to this country from outside the EU,” she said. “We need the same system to apply to those who come to this country from inside the EU.

“Once we have that system in place then I think we will have a sensible immigration policy. One that says if you come to this country with skills we really need – say you’re a brain surgeon or something in Australia as opposed to someone who has no skills, a fruit picker in Romania – then we say yes.

“If you come into this country with a job, we say yes. If you come into this country because you’ve got the money to support you and contribute to this country, we say yes. But otherwise need to say we can’t support you. That would be my policy.”

That's a good one...arguing for an opponent's policy at the primary 'hustings'

Maybe she's smarter than she seems?

e2a :

National media, including the Guardian, Telegraph and BBC, were banned by Conservative officials from reporting on the hustings – a move described as wrong by Sarah Wollaston, the Tory MP for Totnes, who was also selected via open primary. However, the Guardian since has obtained a recording of the event.

Lol

 

[brogdale]

Another poll, (UKIP donor funded), for Rochester & Strood....

UKIP 43: CON 30: LAB 21: LD 3: GRN 2

Th big by-election news tonight which has already been anticipated by the betting markets is a new UKIP donor funded poll of Rochester & Strood in the Daily Express.

The news is not good for the Tories and very good for the purples. The poll has Farage’s party in a better position than it was in the Mail/Survation poll two weeks ago when UKIP had a 9% lead.

Amongst 2010 CON voters ComRes found 57% supporting the blues and 40% Reckless – almost exactly the same proportion as in the earlier Survation poll. Reckless is relying for his support on ex-LAB & LD voters. But the biggest source of new support for UKIP are those who didn’t vote at the last general election with 28% of the UKIP share coming from them.

Some other pollsters would mark the views of this group down sharply because non-voting support from the previous general election is the most flakey of all.

Pleasant to imagine the angst/panic at tory HQ

 

[brogdale]

The Vermin's primary fail....after hearing that their expenditure might fall foul of election law, they get a pathetically low response to their freepost primary..

http://www1.politicalbetting.com/in...rimary-which-looks-like-an-expensive-mistake/

(nb. 3 different figures in that piece)

I said beforehand that a 15% participation rate would be good given the time pressure. So to fall short of that by such a margin does not bode well for the Blue Team.

It really shows the lack of interest that voters there have in the party and doesn’t bode well for CON prospects in the election proper on November 20th.

Just as well they're not balloting for strike action.

 

[William of Walworth]

Just as well they're not balloting for strike action.

 

[brogdale]

Anna Firth must be so pissed off...if only 12 people had voted differently....

 

[William of Walworth]