Rochester & Strood by-election

[brogdale]

Writ likely to be issued within next couple of days and November 6th is favourite. Time for it's own thread.

The tories have decided upon their two candidates for the open primary, and the candidate to contest Reckless will be announced on Oct 23rd.

The Conservatives have shortlisted two Kent councillors in the battle to be the party’s candidate in the forthcoming Rochester and Strood by-election.

Kelly Tolhurst, a Medway councillor who represents the Rochester West ward and is cabinet member for education, will vie with Sevenoaks councillor Anna Firth in the selection battle.

Kelly Tolhurst is a life-long resident of Medway and was elected to the council in 2011.

She is the cabinet member for school improvement. She now runs her own marine survey business in Rochester and has served as a local councillor for over three years.

In a statement, the Conservative association said she had “seen the strain that excessive immigration has put on housing and our local services.”

Anna Firth lives in Sevenoaks with her husband and three children and was brought up in Essex. Formerly a barrister, she now serves on the Sevenoaks council. She was shortlisted for the Thanet South constituency but lost out to Craig Mackinlay.

She is a governor of Tonbridge Grammar School for Girls.
http://www.kentonline.co.uk/medway/news/tories-candidate-25206/

 

[chilango]

UKIP win?

 

[lizzieloo]

Knowing the people I know there UKIP will win it.

 

[chilango]

LibDem lost deposit?

 

[killer b]

yes, and yes.

 

[tony heath]

Reckless took a couple of Kent councillors with him http://www.kentonline.co.uk/medway/news/medway-tory-ukip-defection-24607/

 

[brogdale]

UKIP win?

The only poll published so far...(excluding the 2010 no-shows)...

 

[William of Walworth]

Don't think it will be such a walkover for UKIP this time. Tories could just squeak a survival even.

 

[Spanky Longhorn]

Don't think it will be such a walkover for UKIP this time. Tories could just squeak a survival even.

I'm amazed you could look at the poll above and think that

 

[chilango]

Class War are standing in this one aren't they?

 

[newbie]

would a Labour tactical voter prefer to weaken Cameron or damage Farage?

 

[brogdale]

Class War are standing in this one aren't they?

Yes, according to the great osseous one...

Holly said after being selected………‘I fucking hate Marc Reckless – the useless twat’

 

[rioted]

Russian submarine

 

[andysays]

I'm amazed you could look at the poll above and think that

At the risk of stating the bleedin' obvious, that poll does suggest it's currently far closer in Rochester than it was in Clacton (if I remember correctly, polls there were giving UKIP/Carswell a clear lead right from the beginning).

I suspect this one will be more closely fought than Clacton, but that Farage and Reckless will have been expecting to win when they announced the switch/resignation plan (they also need to win to keep the momentum going in preparation for the GE).

The Tories will also be aware that they need to stop UKIP here, so they are likely to put far more energy into fighting this by-election than the previous one, where I suspect they realised that they actually had no realistic chance of pulling it back.

 

[tony heath]

The Tories will also be aware that they need to stop UKIP here, so they are likely to put far more energy into fighting this by-election than the previous one, where I suspect they realised that they actually had no realistic chance of pulling it back.

Which makes me wonder why they are waiting until 23rd October to announce a candidate, hardly energetic behaviour.

 

[belboid]

Which makes me wonder why they are waiting until 23rd October to announce a candidate, hardly energetic behaviour.

because they aren't restricting it to Tory members, they're going for a yank style process. James Cracknell now the favourite, apparently.

To be held on November 20th

 

[marty21]

because they aren't restricting it to Tory members, they're going for a yank style process. James Cracknell now the favourite, apparently.

To be held on November 20th

they need a big name to have any chance - mind you at Clacton, their candidate was an actor who appeared in Bread - didn't help him though

 

[andysays]

because they aren't restricting it to Tory members, they're going for a yank style process. James Cracknell now the favourite, apparently.

To be held on November 20th

where you getting that from?

 

[brogdale]

because they aren't restricting it to Tory members, they're going for a yank style process. James Cracknell now the favourite, apparently.

To be held on November 20th

Yes and no.
Yeah, the open primary theory is that the process itself raises the profile of the winner...giving the electorate "ownership" and all that crap. No, (arse)Cracknell is not one of the two candidates involved in the primary...see above.

 

[Dogsauce]

because they aren't restricting it to Tory members, they're going for a yank style process. James Cracknell now the favourite, apparently.

To be held on November 20th

Is there potential for mischief with such a process? Candidates are still being vetted (according to the article above with 'shortlisted' candidates), but there must be a chance for people to vote for the most weird or hopeless candidate to hinder their chances a bit?

 

[Dogsauce]

Unsure who I'd want to win this - UKIP winning would weaken Cameron, but at the same time the Tories winning might make UKIP try harder to target the tory vote, and take their momentum away a bit. I hope it's messy whichever way it goes.

 

[Louis MacNeice]

The only poll published so far...(excluding the 2010 no-shows)...

UKIP plus Labour...looks like an uphill struggle for the Tories.

Cheers - Louis MacNeice

 

[belboid]

where you getting that from?

Kent online - shorely an unimpeachable sauce!!

http://www.kentonline.co.uk/medway/news/is-cracknell-set-to-stick-25129/

If it is an open primary, surely there can be write in candidates.

 

[hot air baboon]

....of no possible interest to anyone but its been bugging the hell out of me who Reckless reminds me off....Andrew Gilligan...

 

[treelover]

James Cracknell post on Guardian CIF with all sorts of anti-capitalist views, this can't be the same one can it?

 

[andysays]

Kent online - shorely an unimpeachable sauce!!

http://www.kentonline.co.uk/medway/news/is-cracknell-set-to-stick-25129/

If it is an open primary, surely there can be write in candidates.

Thanks, though I see the date on that is the 12th, and the (now-updated) article from the same source linked to above says

There had been speculation that former Olympic rower James Crackell could be in contention but the party has opted instead for local people.

 

[marty21]

James Cracknell post on Guardian CIF with all sorts of anti-capitalist views, this can't be the same one can it?

maybe he has an evil plan

 

[belboid]

Thanks, though I see the date on that is the 12th, and the (now-updated) article from the same source linked to above says

local people for local...mmm, hang on a mo...

 

[brogdale]

Kent online - shorely an unimpeachable sauce!!

http://www.kentonline.co.uk/medway/news/is-cracknell-set-to-stick-25129/

If it is an open primary, surely there can be write in candidates.

No, the 'open' part of the term 'open primary' merely means that the process is open to any voter, not just those belonging to the party choosing a candidate. Has its risks...obviously, but controlling the choice to two (presumably well vetted party hacks) minimises any real danger of democracy breaking out.

 

[andysays]

local people for local...mmm, hang on a mo...

Maybe (just maybe) they're actually beginning to wise up and recognise that bringing in a big name over the heads of local councillors is part of what leads people to be fucked off with their remoteness. Whether it will make any difference in this case remains to be seen.