Rochdale by-election

[moochedit]

The pizza bloke?

Didn't think sweaty nonce was allowed to run?

 

[Smokeandsteam]

Excellent targetting at the marginals on Milkstone Road.

Yeah, I must admit I don’t have a particularly strong view on that one, but the rest of it is better than the foul opportunistic stench emitted by Galloway.

 

[Wilf]

Some Labour voters will switch to LD, some loons will switch to Danczuk, the small section of the electorate which believes that middle eastern politics is key to the future of Rochdale is split anyway between Galloway and Ali, a majority of voters in a safe Labour seat in a low-turnout election will go for the bloke with the Labour logo next to his name on the ballot paper, which is Ali. Galloway has zero chance and Ali will sit for a few months then be replaced come the general election.

It’s a storm in a teacup.

Why do you put it like that? Anyone voting on Palestine is clearly not voting that way because they think it has a direct bearing on Rochdale itself, they are voting that way because of their beliefs and/or heritage.

 

[TopCat]

What’s not to like about his programme?

Rochdale By-Election 2024: Michael Howarth

Election Pitch for Rochdale By-Election 2024, Michael Howarth (Independent)

www.rochdaleonline.co.uk

He says nothing on the issues of the day.

 

[lazythursday]

Milkstone Road is actually at the heart of the Asian community and is full of takeaways / ethnic supermarkets etc. It's a bit off the beaten track from the main town centre so am guessing has missed out on some funding.

Anyway Galloway is going to walk this. It will likely be a low-ish turnout, and those that want to make a point about Gaza will be extra motivated to turn out. Plus am sure Galloway is perfectly capable of pushing the right buttons in the poorer white areas, and don't underestimate the power of being the protest vote candidate - lots of people will be attracted by the idea of just giving the main parties a bloody nose - especially given where we are in the electoral cycle.

 

[Silas Loom]

Why do you put it like that? Anyone voting on Palestine is clearly not voting that way because they think it has a direct bearing on Rochdale itself, they are voting that way because of their beliefs and/or heritage.

Whatever. Ali still wins.

 

[Wilf]

Milkstone Road is actually at the heart of the Asian community and is full of takeaways / ethnic supermarkets etc. It's a bit off the beaten track from the main town centre so am guessing has missed out on some funding.

Anyway Galloway is going to walk this. It will likely be a low-ish turnout, and those that want to make a point about Gaza will be extra motivated to turn out. Plus am sure Galloway is perfectly capable of pushing the right buttons in the poorer white areas, and don't underestimate the power of being the protest vote candidate - lots of people will be attracted by the idea of just giving the main parties a bloody nose - especially given where we are in the electoral cycle.

I'm not sure he will manage to do this. Now that Labour have an un-candidate, he will realise that achieving this is the key to success, but it will be a big ask. Suppose the real issue is how voters react to having a Labour non-candidate and whether that makes a difference i.e. whether they still just 'vote Labour'.

 

[Wilf]

Whatever. Ali still wins.

Seemed like a snidey comment but, as you say, whatever.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

I'm not sure he will manage to do this. Now that Labour have an un-candidate, he will realise that achieving this is the key to success, but it will be a big ask. Suppose the real issue is how voters react to having a Labour non-candidate and whether that makes a difference i.e. whether they still just 'vote Labour'.

Despite his grovelling apology (which was for nothing - he was totally stitched up there), he's still going to register with people as someone who is pro-Palestinian.

I think it's hard to call. I'll not be surprised if there is a miserably low turnout, something under 30%. So it's all about who motivates people to come out for them the most.

 

[Sue]

I’d vote for the pizza bloke. Seriously. There is no question to which the best answer is ‘George Galloway’.

Tbh I wouldn't vote for any of them. And fuck Galloway.

 

[PTK]

Despite his grovelling apology (which was for nothing - he was totally stitched up there), he's still going to register with people as someone who is pro-Palestinian.

I think it's hard to call. I'll not be surprised if there is a miserably low turnout, something under 30%. So it's all about who motivates people to come out for them the most.

The turnout will be relatively high, I predict.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

The turnout will be relatively high, I predict.

Maybe. If so, it will be because the approx 30% Asian population has been motivated to come out. In that case, I would predict a Galloway victory.

 

[PTK]

I think it may be possible that Galloway inspires people to both vote for, and against, him.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Bookies have it as a straight fight between Ali and Galloway, with Galloway edging it but basically too close to call.

 

[Cerv]

it's not a realistic outcome though is it?

The realistic ones at this point, are Galloway victory, Labour scrapes through by the skin of their teeth, or either Reform just pips it thanks to a divided Labour vote. By far and away the worst outcome is Danczuk winning, though doesn't seem likely at the moment.

no not really

actually if I can wish for unrealistic outcomes, it would be even better if a snap general election is called tomorrow & parliament disolved & the bye election cancelled.
Galloway still loses his deposit it he choses to stand in the general election.



e: the "put us out of this misery" option

 

[tim]

(((invertebrates)))

Octopuses can be quite plucky.

Suckery, surely.

 

[tim]

I’d vote for the pizza bloke. Seriously. There is no question to which the best answer is ‘George Galloway’.

What about the vicar? He's the only former political prisoner in contention.

 

[danny la rouge]

The turnout will be relatively high, I predict.

Depends on one’s definition of high, but I’d predict no higher than 45%. The implied turnout for the area at the last GE was 60.1%.

NB: I am always right about elections.

 

[The39thStep]

Paul Waugh who was beaten by Azhar Ali in the Labour selection process sounds like he would have been ideal.

"Among the texts I’m most proud of was one from a backbench Conservative, who was stunned that I was a Labour supporter. “I had no idea! Which is a tribute to your professionalism. Best of luck.”

 

[PTK]

Depends on one’s definition of high, but I’d predict no higher than 45%. The implied turnout for the area at the last GE was 60.1%.

NB: I am always right about elections.

I think that concerns about the Gaza Strip War may motivate people to vote.

 

[danny la rouge]

I think that concerns about the Gaza Strip War may motivate people to vote.

Well, I’m not in Rochdale so I don’t know the local temperature, but I’d be surprised if it had much effect.

 

[kenny g]

I predict a turnout of 20 percent or less.

 

[danny la rouge]

I predict a turnout of 20 percent or less.

If you’re right, I’m still right. You fool!

 

[belboid]

I think that concerns about the Gaza Strip War may motivate people to vote.

bless

 

[belboid]

Depends on one’s definition of high, but I’d predict no higher than 45%. The implied turnout for the area at the last GE was 60.1%.

NB: I am always right about elections.

I'd be pretty astounded if it got that high. 35% tops, imo

 

[danny la rouge]

I'd be pretty astounded if it got that high. 35% tops, imo

Like I said, if you’re right, I’m still right.

 

[lazythursday]

I think it will be a generally low turnout, 35-45%, but a much higher turnout proportionately from the Asian community. There is a lot of anger about Labour in those communities - I was at a demo on Palestine in Halifax (just across the Pennines from Rochdale, neighbouring borough) a couple of months ago, and it was the biggest protest I've ever seen in the town, 90% Asian and people absolutely furious at Labour. Their equivalents in Rochdale will be queuing up at the polling stations.

 

[brogdale]

Difficult to see how any Rochdale folk could convince themselves that it's worth voting in this by-election

 

[steeplejack]

Second candidate caught up in anti-semitism scandal at same Ali meeting.

The PPC for Hyndburn apparently. Hope he enjoyed being a politician, very briefly.

 

[brogdale]

Second candidate caught up in anti-semitism scandal at same Ali meeting.

The PPC for Hyndburn apparently. Hope he enjoyed being a politician, very briefly.

View attachment 412030

Going for it!