Why have two books about populism caused such outrage among academics?
Munira Mirza
23 December 2018 - 7:00am
The signs were there but few saw the backlash coming. Emily Thornberry tweeted that photo of a house in Kent draped with England flags; Gordon Brown was overheard calling Rochdale pensioner Gillian Duffy a “bigoted woman” for complaining to him about immigration; David Cameron denounced UKIP supporters as “fruitcakes, loons and racists”. The message of contempt wasn’t just political, it was cultural – and it was received loud and clear.
In 2016, the majority mounted a revolt. Brexit was as much an expression of antipathy towards the elite and mainstream politicians as it was a decision about the future relationship between the UK and the EU. It was a uniquely British iteration of a much broader global phenomenon. In Europe, we have seen it, in different forms, in France, Italy, Spain, Sweden and Germany. Further afield, it has overturned the established order in Brazil and, of course, the United States.
Where has this populist surge come from? Many commentators have pointed to the growing gap between rich and poor in developed countries, but the data suggests that income level is not a very strong indicator of how people will vote (Hillary voters were, in fact, poorer than Trump voters, on average). Bill Clinton’s famous adage “It’s the economy, stupid”, doesn’t seem a good enough answer anymore.
Two compelling new books attempt to explain what is happening by exploring longer-term social and cultural shifts within liberal democracies. Eric Kaufmann’s Whiteshift (Allen Lane, £25) is an insightful study of demographic change in the US, UK, Canada, Europe and Australia, and focuses on one barely discussed feature: the declining proportion of the populations of these countries that comes from what might be broadly defined as the white ethnic majority.
By 2050, it is projected that the white population of the US will be in the minority. The UK will reach the same point by the end of the century. The pace and scale of change is unprecedented and has profound implications for how people feel about their cultural identity.
Kaufmann argues that, while academics theorise about living in an era of multiculturalism and “global citizenship”, most people remain stubbornly attached to the idea of a national ethnic identity. What they fear from high levels of immigration and diversity is a tipping point whereby the shared culture they know is lost forever. Kaufmann draws on reams of polling data to argue that populist concerns about immigration are driven more by a sense of cultural loss than economic deprivation.
Undeniably, Kaufmann’s focus on “whiteness” makes this book uncomfortable reading. In most parts of the world, anxiety about an influx of newcomers of a different ethnicity might be seen as entirely natural, but we are rightly cautious about where such feelings can lead. Kaufmann handles these issues with sensitivity as well as critical distance. Indeed, he points out that “whiteness” is a somewhat malleable concept. In US history it has absorbed, over time, the Irish, Jews and even to some extent Hispanics, even though these groups were all initially regarded as “alien” by the host population. (Kaufmann points out that he himself is mixed-race, but that he would be regarded by most people he meets as white.)
The key issue is not a pure racial quality of “whiteness” per se, but how people use it as a proxy of ethnic belonging to the host culture. If liberal democracy is to successfully welcome migrants of other ethnic backgrounds, it needs to maintain a degree of cultural continuity. Although it sounds contradictory, Kaufmann predicts that we will develop a more ethnically mixed and inclusive conception of “whiteness” in the future. He is sanguine about where we will end up, as long as we can manage people’s anxieties in the short term by stabilising the degree of change and emphasising assimilation into a shared identity.
One downside of the book is that by focusing so much on the white majority’s cultural fears, the author is a little too dismissive about other drivers behind the immigration debate. Many people (including settled ethnic minorities) believe that high levels of unskilled immigration will affect their livelihoods and public services, and this ties into wider fears about job insecurity, market forces and globalisation.
Matthew Goodwin and Roger Eatwell’s National Populism: the Revolt Against Liberal Democracy (Pelican, £9.99) acknowledges the cultural factors but also takes the broad economic drivers seriously. They do a good job of demolishing lazy stereotypes about Trump and Brexit supporters being almost exclusively white and old (one in three ethnic minorities supported Brexit; one in three Latino men backed Trump; and many young people support populist parties in Europe). The authors see immigration and cultural identity as a key factor behind populism, but link this to wider economic and social change, including the deregulation of labour markets.
The UK has developed an economic model that relies increasingly on cheap, non-unionised migrant workers. To the people at the top, this “growth” looks like wealth, but to the people at the bottom it feels like a chimera because it does not reach them. As one member of the public is quoted as saying: “That’s your bloody GDP, not ours.”
Lower-skilled employees feel the effects of large-scale immigration in certain sectors, such as agriculture, construction and social care. But instead of acknowledging these concerns and seeking to mitigate them, politicians have tried to clamp down on any discussion and stigmatised those who have expressed anxiety. The effect is that voters no longer trust their politicians to have their interests at heart. There is a loosening of political obligations to “the people” and, as a result, “the people” are cutting their traditional loyalties to the political parties. Culture matters, not because it is a signifier of race but because it often connotes our connectedness to a wider story; family, party, nation, class and community. Language, symbols and traditions are important because they imbue our lives with these shared meanings.
Yet these unifying stories have fragmented over the past half-century; we argue over which heroes to admire, which flags to fly, and which words we can safely use. The fallout after the Brexit vote and dismissal of those who voted Leave as stupid, uneducated, and racist, revealed how much this sense of solidarity and empathy has frayed. There is deep suspicion that the global elite do not share the same political and economic interests, because they do not share the same cultural story.
Depressingly, the measured and insightful efforts by the authors of these books to investigate and explain populism have been met by anger from some within academia. They claim that such studies legitimise anti-immigrant feeling. Indeed, when Kaufmann and Goodwin organised a public debate in central London in November, a group of academics wrote an open letter in condemnation.
Censorship would be the wrong response in any case, but it should go without saying that studying a phenomenon does not mean you endorse it. Neither of these books is opposed to immigrants or immigration, and they do not even assume that opposition to immigration is inevitable.
Demographics are not destiny. But by acknowledging the drivers behind people’s anxieties over immigration and finding ways to address such concerns, rather than trying to ignore or steamroller them, the authors point to how Britain, at least, might avoid the kind of far-Right surge that has developed in other parts of Europe.