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Peak Oil (was "petroleum geologist explains US war policy")

Iraqi oil contracts to be auctioned in live TV 'game show'
Telegraph. 26 Jun 2009



...



Thanks dd. I'll finish reading that this afternoon.

Have you read the Accursed Share by Georges Bataille?
Jesus fucking Christ........

These are just service contracts for existing fields, contracts to basicaly do a bit of work on the kit and bring new kit in..... it is so surreal!!!!! You could have stuck this in a sci fi tv show in the 80s and it would have seemed absurd and unlikely.
 
Output from Cantarell, once one of the world's most prolific oil fields, was 658,700 bpd in June, down 37 percent from a year ago. In addition to the natural decline of the field, planned work on a production platform at Cantarell in June cut output by 5,800 bpd.
Cantrells collapse in production from third in the world behind Ghawar and Burgan continues to amaze and astound. Link

One of the newst super giants brought on stream it is a chilling warning of the rate of decline we may expect from fields that have N2O gas injection.
 
From the Independent:
Warning: Oil supplies are running out fast
At least it's making headlines in a mainstream news source (I know it's the silly season, but still).

The comments are worth a read too.

The IEA sure has come a long way in just a few short years - they now speak the language of Peak Oil loud and clear.

Its no great surprise that this stuff is still not the focus of the 'narrative of our times' that the mainstream press deliver but I guess its only a matter of time. The managerial classes have been made well aware of the issue by now, I dont know exactly how long before the headlines for everyone else reflect the peak oil realities.
 
Extraction rates, extraction rates, extraction rates
(costs too, but rates rates rates!)

Thunder Horse is a similar field, deep and large. They have one rig working it, that cost $5bn and pumps 300kb/d.

To offset projected depletion, we need to be finding tens of fields this size, every year, and get them pumping quickly. Hands up anyone with multiple 100kb/d field discoveries up their sleeves? Hands up anyone with $50bn to invest in oil rigs. Anyone?
 
BP claims to have found a 'giant' in Mexico:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8233504.stm

Very deep! But we have to wait till they estimate what reserves it holds before getting any sense of whether this find is really of any significance.
4-6 billion barrels of oil in place. So give or take 2 billion URR? So at 87 million barrels a day consumption that is 22 days worth of oil.



Proven reserves fell for the first time in a decade, not that such numbers necessarily reflect reality.
Interesting as prices went up so companies could book much larger P90 estimates. But then IOCs only have about 10% of the worlds reserves. NOCs have somewhere like 85-90% of the reserves and they dont tend to follow SEC rules when declairing estimates.

Nor do they generaly write down reserves either.
 
Glossary:

P90 - 90% probability reserve amount
IOC - Independent Oil Company
NOC - National Oil Company
SEC - Securities and Exchange Commission (USA)
 
Glossary:

P90 - 90% probability reserve amount
IOC - Independent Oil Company
NOC - National Oil Company
SEC - Securities and Exchange Commission (USA)
Sorry typing as quick as thinking. URR is ultimate recoverable reserve, the amount of oil that can be extracted from a field. The P90 figure is important because that is the reserve a company can book and state to investors it has, that is P90 URR 90% certain they can extract that amount.

I am very interested in the geology of this find, with so much sedement on top of it it is likely to be very old (aint no Miocene field that for sure). It is feasible that this may be a pre Camrbian field! There are supposidely a couple around the world. One big new shale 'play' in Australias Nothern Territory is from pre Cambrian bacteria mats. The Devonian is the oldest era when you start getting major oil fields I think. The real biggies tend to be Jurrasic and Crutaceous due to the major anoxic oceanic events during those periods.

Yes, yes, yes. I am a nerd.


Link to story on BP.

Edited to add hmmm some sources are giving this a Lower Tertiary, so it may be less than 65 million years old. Thats a suprise for having so much sediment on top of it (10km).
 
I miss bigfish. He'd be popping up to tell us how this field is so deep, it's probably freshly generated from the crust.
 
I see a peak oil article is in the top 10 read items on the BBC site at the moment:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/8296096.stm

There is a "significant risk" that global production of conventional oil could "peak" and decline by 2020, a report has warned.
The UK Energy Research Council study says there is a consensus that the era of cheap oil is at an end.
But it warns that most governments, including the UK's, exhibit little concern about oil depletion.
The report's authors also state that the 10 largest oil producing fields in the world are all in decline.

Its a review of existing data rather than original research.

I often wonder why 2020 is touted as the tipping point date, when data I see usually suggests that the peak could be quite a bit sooner than that.

As for their point that the UK government rarely mentions peak oil, I tend to assume that they have their reasons for this, its not simply a case of them being in denial. The blanket term 'energy security' covers it, and that stuff is mixed in with climate change papers and policies, especially now that energy and climate change is wrapped up into one department.
 
Quite possible, certainly I think we are only going to be able to 100% confirm the peak by looking in our rear-view mirrors.
 
Why the 'peak oil' debate is irrelevant
The debate over exactly when we will reach "peak oil" is irrelevant. No matter what new oil fields we discover, global oil production will start declining in 2030 at the very latest.

That's the conclusion of the most comprehensive report to date on global oil production, published on 7 October by the UK Energy Research Centre.

The report, which reviewed over 500 research studies, suggests that global oil production could peak any time from right now to as late as 2030.

"Either way, our research shows that the difference between even the most pessimistic and optimistic claims is just 15 to 20 years," says Steve Sorrell, the report's lead author, who is based at Sussex University in the UK.

This is a problem, says Sorrell, because 20 years isn't long enough for governments to prepare well-thought-out policies that would tackle the economic chaos likely to occur when oil production begins to decline. Research in 2005 by the US Department of Energy suggests that policies to reduce the demand for oil while developing large-scale alternatives will take at least two decades to bear fruit, he says.
 
Oil prices hit high but report warns of supply crunch

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2009/oct/19/oil-prices-rise-supply-warning-report

A report from the non-governmental organisation Global Witness – famous for its exposé of so-called "blood diamonds" – pointed to an impending supply shock that could be so severe that many of the world's poor countries would simply be shut off from the world of energy by sky-high prices.

Two years in the preparation, Global Witness's report, Heads in the Sand, accused governments of ignoring the fact that the world could soon start to run short of oil. This would lead to huge consequences in terms of price shocks and much higher levels of violence around the world than last year's food riots.

"There is a train crash about to happen from an energy point of view. But politicians everywhere seem to have entirely missed the scale of the problem," said the report's author, Simon Taylor.

I wonder how long we have to wait before this issue completes its transition to the mainstream and becomes firmly lodged in the minds of the masses.
 
I note with interest that when the oil price first started to rise to giddy heights, there were a lot of explanations for this in the media, few of which had anything to do with oil supply & demand.

But once the economic crisis hit, greatly reduced demand expectations were said to be responsible for the oil price falling.

Now the price has been steadily rising again, albeit at a slower rate, and this is explained as being due to the economy recovering and demand going back up.

Hoorah, some progress, no longer will I have to listen to explanations such as the threat of war in the middle east or speculators as being the prime driver of oil price. Well maybe, time will tell, lets see how long the quest to avoid the brutal reality can continue.
 
As Ive mentioned before, I sometimes like to consider an alternative history of peak oil where certain elements of government may have been well aware of the issue since at least the 1970's, even going so far as to ponder whether the various oil & other energy crises of that decade were at least partially related to this. At a minimum I believe one of the reasons IEA was setup was due to expectation of non-OPEC countries oil peaking.

Given that the IEA has taken to being a bit more realistic about oil in the last year, I went to their website today to see what was new, and one of the things was a ministerial the other week which yielded various reports.

IEA is 35 so they did a 'Scoreboard - 35 key energy trends for 35 years.' Im not sure the full thing is online but there is a fact sheet which inludes the following:

IEA member countries have been successful in diversifying their energy mix in production and supply. The combined share of oil, coal and natural gas dropped from 90% to 74% in total energy production, and from 93% to 82% in total primary energy supply. The share of oil has been halved in all sectors but transport; oil has been almost phased out in electricity generation. All countries but two have decreased the share of oil in energy supply.
From http://www.iea.org/journalists/ministerial2009/fs_scoreboard.pdf

Obviously other trends have meant we have still seen demand go up, but even so, if this transition had not happened then supply-demand balance would have gone out of whack far sooner than it did. The long emergency indeed, also known as the long slow application of the brakes whilst still managing to increase speed for decades.
 
One more IEA quote whilst Im on the subject, sums up the story of the century fairly well to me:

15 October 2009 Paris --- “The world faces unprecedented economic, environmental and security challenges, all of which relate to energy. Ministers from the 28 member countries of the International Energy Agency and the European Commission have expressed their determination to tackle these challenges together to ensure a more secure, sustainable and clean energy future,” said Nobuo Tanaka, Executive Director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), today at the closing of the Agency’s Ministerial meeting in Paris. “This is a historic moment,” added the Chair of the Ministerial meeting, Netherlands’ Minister of Economic Affairs Maria van der Hoeven. “35 years ago, the IEA was founded to provide an effective response to oil supply disruptions and to ensure access to reliable, affordable energy. Today, we chart a course to a low-carbon economy, adequate energy investment and greater global engagement.”

http://www.iea.org/press/pressdetail.asp?PRESS_REL_ID=291
 
O My!

Just an aside. Having made post #5 of this thread -- in 2003! -- it is truly amazing that this thread is still alive and well in late 2009. It is a testament to every contributor, and to Bernie who seeded this wonderful thread.

Carry on, mates!
 
Oil closed at $79.55

UK consumers are paying over £1.05 per liter at the pump. Amazing how quickly we adjust to the new normal. (The price was up over the past week on very low US domestic stocks available, TOD and others do more indepth analysis for anyone intersted.)

The longest recession since WWII (officialy now) and still enough oil is being sold to justify $80 a barrel? Blimey. I did see that Saudi has said Manifa is still on course. So that will be 900 000 000 barrels a day of heavy crude by 2013.

Dash for gas causes concern (and E.On [F.Off] Kingsnorth story blown)
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/natural_resources/article6891244.ece

If your not prepping in some way for whats coming down the line, you have not understood the issues.
 
Just an aside. Having made post #5 of this thread -- in 2003! -- it is truly amazing that this thread is still alive and well in late 2009. It is a testament to every contributor, and to Bernie who seeded this wonderful thread.

Carry on, mates!



Aye!


Big up the Urban Massive.

What a community!

:)


Blessings one and all.

:)



Woof
 
Saudi dumps WTI as a benchmark

Saudi Arabia yesterday decided to drop the widely used West Texas Intermediate oil contract as the benchmark for pricing its oil, dealing a serious blow to the New York Mercantile Exchange.

The decision by the world's biggest oil exporter could encourage other producers to abandon the benchmark and threatens the dominance of the world's most heavily traded oil futures contract. It is the main contract traded on Nymex.

The move reveals the growing discontent of Riyadh and its US refinery customers with WTI after the price of the benchmark became separated from the global oil market this year.

The surge in oil inventories in Cushing, Oklahoma, where WTI is delivered into America's pipeline system, depressed the value of the WTI against other global benchmarks, throwing the global oil market into disarray.

In January, WTI, which usually trades at a premium of $1-$2 a barrel to Brent, fell sharply, leaving it at a discount of almost $12 - a record gap. This dislocation in the market continued well into the summer.

I will wait till some sober analysis has turned up on this before getting to invloved but I can predict that it will be acompanied by many death of the dollar stories on the blogosphere.

WTI has been getting alot of flack over the past two years as there is such small volumes of it now, like Brent blend, it comes from depleted fields and so on. The article mentions that 'sour' oil is now a big portion of the market, that is to say oil with a high content of sulpher. Also heavier grades of oil are becoming more important as well. IIRC (could be wrong dont quote me on it) Nigerian Bonny Light is the biggest source of light oil imported to the US.

Updated by DD
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125676974879614339.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

A new U.S. oil pricing benchmark is rapidly taking shape, threatening to further erode the dominance of the Nymex crude futures contract.

Argus Media said Wednesday its Sour Crude Index will be adopted by Saudi Aramco to set prices for oil sold in the U.S., in a move away from a formula tied closely to light, sweet crude futures traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

The backing of the world's biggest oil exporter gives new clout to the five-month-old benchmark, and to the Gulf Coast market where the oil tracked in the Argus index is delivered. Argus and rival Platts have argued for years without gaining much headway that growing production in the Gulf of Mexico makes the region better-suited for setting oil prices than Cushing, Okla., the delivery point for barrels underpinning the Nymex futures contract.

Aramco's shift could eventually lead to lower trading volume for the Nymex contract if their customers, such as refiners, no longer see Cushing-delivered as adequately protecting against price volatility. CME Group Inc., which owns Nymex, plans to introduce a new derivative by the end of the year to capitalize on the early success of the Argus index, said Bob Levin, the exchange operator's managing director for energy research and product development.


"We've been wanting to get a U.S. Gulf (sour benchmark) going, we're very supportive of them," Mr. Levin said. "The world doesn't just trade one type of product, there are hundreds of (crude) streams .. it needs more than one pivot."

Looks like there will be no short term impact on the dollar or US economy as a whole, just the NYMEX exchange.
 
Saudi dumps WTI as a benchmark



I will wait till some sober analysis has turned up on this before getting to invloved but I can predict that it will be acompanied by many death of the dollar stories on the blogosphere.

WTI has been getting alot of flack over the past two years as there is such small volumes of it now, like Brent blend, it comes from depleted fields and so on. The article mentions that 'sour' oil is now a big portion of the market, that is to say oil with a high content of sulpher. Also heavier grades of oil are becoming more important as well. IIRC (could be wrong dont quote me on it) Nigerian Bonny Light is the biggest source of light oil imported to the US.

Updated by DD
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125676974879614339.html?mod=googlenews_wsj






Looks like there will be no short term impact on the dollar or US economy as a whole, just the NYMEX exchange.

innit

A commodity derivatives professional ( but cynical of the markets & wankers he is involved in ) writes....

Its sensible for exchanges to re-evaluate their F&O contracts and introduce new / revised ones to cash in on hedging opportunities for producers and users

The basics of F&O contracts are pretty simple - to survive, they need to take account of changes in the market - NYMEX LS crude contract has been around for 25 years and TBH, its worth is declining year on year with its relationship to the underlying.I am surprised that LSC lasted this long - it really was a 20th Century product & has outlived its usefulness

LSC may be on the way out, but revised contracts and indexes will fill the gap - the CME are pretty smart are meeting needs
 
Shale gas drilling in Poland

This could be one of the most important geopolitical changes in Europe this decade if it does come off. Shale gas is a very different beast to shale "oil", with shale sand oil the oil is really just Kerogen that needs a great deal of heat treatment to crack it and turn it into an oil that will flow. With shale gas what is being extracted is already largely methane so does not need insitu cracking. What makes it hard to extract is the very small pore size of the source rock making it very hard to get a flow of gas worth drilling a hole for. With the new technologies (well relatively new) of horozontal wells and hydraulic fracturing (plus keeping those fractures open using injected sands and other compounds) it is now possible to extract economic volumes of gas for every well. This is very expensive gas but there are huge amounts of it. This is the same kind of unconventional fuel source as the Marcellus shale and the Barnet shale in the US that has been a huge game changer over there. But I have no idea of the volume of these reserves atm.

The if is a big one but if this is a big shale gas play then it will see a change in the dependency of Europe on Russian gas and from Poland to be less dependent of its coal. This will reduce the barganing power of Russia (although not end it by any stretch of the imagenation) and perhaps make one of Europes largest countries much more hospitable to climate change treaties.

But I have seen enough false dawns in the energy to not be counting my chickens, just flagging a possibility here.


Edited to add that the times ran an article on this a couple of days ago.
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/natural_resources/article6898015.ece
 
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