Patrick Mercer to resign. By-Election incoming.

[kebabking]

Farages bottling it will cost a few thousand votes, might come to be seen as a fatal error.

i think this is almost certainly correct - while the UKIP researchers and policy wonks might have done the ground work and decided that Falange wasn't going to win, the 'politically disenfrancised' who he appeals to will think that with Cameron looking weaker and more inept than ever, a disredited Tory MP, Milliband not setting the world alight and, apparently, the political scene having UKIP's rocket up its arse, Falange was an absolute shoe-in for this seat.

not going for it says that he's either a bottler - and his constituancy wants 'bottle' above all else - or he's the same old, same old professional politician guided by beardless PPE's who tell him he's not going to win because of this or that 3.86% demographic so he shouldn't touch it with a bargepole.

for all the EU/Migration stuff Falange's core appeal is the 'one of us, not one of them' thing - if he's got no bottle, or listens to 23yo PPE's, then he's not one of us. fatal - and far more fatal than another 2nd place election result.

 

[Kaka Tim]

yeah - I think farage going for this one with all the momentum of a probably big win in the euros behind him could very well have seen him win the seat - which would have been a small political earthquake. Even coming a close second would have been seen as a moral victory.
Waiting till 2015 to stand and winning a more winnable seat would be much smaller beer and eclipsed by the much bigger poltical story of whoever won the GE.
I mean what is farages end game? Does he think UKIP can win power one day? Or is it to marry UKIP with the tories - with him as leader? Or is he just having a laugh?

 

[brogdale]

yeah - I think farage going for this one with all the momentum of a probably big win in the euros behind him could very well have seen him win the seat - which would have been a small political earthquake. Even coming a close second would have been seen as a moral victory.
Waiting till 2015 to stand and winning a more winnable seat would be much smaller beer and eclipsed by the much bigger poltical story of whoever won the GE.
I mean what is farages end game? Does he think UKIP can win power one day? Or is it to marry UKIP with the tories - with him as leader? Or is he just having a laugh?

I think their 'game-plan' is to gain a sufficient number of MPs in the 2015 GE to hold the balance of power over a tory minority administration. The problem with this plan is, of course, the difficulty of them gaining more than one or two seats.

 

[Dogsauce]

I suspect the 'Farage has a crack at Newark' story was more something the press were running with than him - though he could have talked it down a while ago, knowing the election was coming. It certainly allows the Tory press to paint him as a bottler, so useful from their purposes.

 

[butchersapron]

Mercer wasn't expected to resign until late saturday night though and then someone leaked that the parliamentary report into him had heard much more serious allegations that hadn't been made public - up till that point it was understood that he would be banned from the chamber for 6 months but nothing else.

 

[Quartz]

The Telegraph are having a go at Farage, but he's MEP for the SE, nowhere near Newark.

 

[butchersapron]

The Telegraph are having a go at Farage, but he's MEP for the SE, nowhere near Newark.

That's got nothing to do with why he chose not to stand. Unless you take his explanations at face value. Which is a daft thing to do with a politician.

 

[Dogsauce]

Politicians go where there are safe seats for them, not where they're from, hence my MP's London accent.

 

[brogdale]

Mercer's offences...

Former Tory MP Patrick Mercer committed one of the worst ever breaches of parliamentary lobbying rules, the Commons watchdog has said, after finding he used his position for paid advocacy, claimed a fellow MP was a "crook of the first order" and described a female soldier as looking like a "bloody Jew".

 

[butchersapron]

Mercer's offences...

I think questions must now be asked of Mercers background and upbringing now he's been revealed to be an abusive anti-semtic thief and liar. His father was bish of exeter. I wonder what sort of religious upbringing would lead him to jew-hatery. So questions need be asked of the bish. Not to mention his private school, his oxbridge college and Sandhurst. What sort of kids are these places producing? Does society need to them to carry on doing it?

 

[ViolentPanda]

I think questions must now be asked of Mercers background and upbringing now he's been revealed to be an abusive anti-semtic thief and liar. His father was bish of exeter. I wonder what sort of religious upbringing would lead him to jew-hatery. So questions need be asked of the bish. Not to mention his private school, his oxbridge college and Sandhurst. What sort of kids are these places producing? Does society need to them to carry on doing it?

I don't know about nowadays, but when Mercer went through Sandhurst, they were producing the likes of Iain Duncan Smith too. Dim fucks whose status as members of the upper middle class got them into idiot school.

 

[butchersapron]

I don't know about nowadays, but when Mercer went through Sandhurst, they were producing the likes of Iain Duncan Smith too. Dim fucks whose status as members of the upper middle class got them into idiot school.

Mercer went after Oxbridge though rather than being bundled off there to keep him out the way.

 

[tony.c]

I don't know about nowadays, but when Mercer went through Sandhurst, they were producing the likes of Iain Duncan Smith too. Dim fucks whose status as members of the upper middle class got them into idiot school.

Didn't Prince Harry go there too recently? Seems nothing has changed then.

 

[marty21]

Farage could run in Newark and not even campaign - his argument that it would distract from the Euro campaign is laughable

 

[brogdale]

Farage could run in Newark and not even campaign - his argument that it would distract from the Euro campaign is laughable

He's had his eyes set on South Thanet for some time now.

 

[marty21]

He's had his eyes set on South Thanet for some time now.

If he lost in Newark, he could still run in South Thanet, if he managed a shock win, he wouldn't need to

 

[butchersapron]

He can run in all the seats at once if he likes. That's actually a bloody good idea.

 

[marty21]

He can run in all the seats at once if he likes. That's actually a bloody good idea.

and if he won all the seats - think of all the expenses he could claim

 

[brogdale]

If he lost in Newark, he could still run in South Thanet, if he managed a shock win, he wouldn't need to

I honestly don't think Newark was on his agenda at all. The BBC's reporter Norman Smith quoted Farage on the morning after Mercer's resignation as saying that "he didn't want to burst the bubble". There is a political logic at work here. Yes, the short-term damage was the accusation of 'bottling, but longer term UKIP are confident of a major success in the Euros and that momentum would have been dented by a leader's failure to take the seat. As it is, if a ('lesser') UKIP candidate either takes Newark, or comes 'a brave second' they'll still have "the big Mo".

Furthermore Thanet is rapidly becoming the closest thing that UKIP have to a heartland, and I'm sure that Farage is well aware how often by-election victors fail to retain the seat at the next GE.

 

[chilango]

Farage simply has no *need* to stand.

 

[ViolentPanda]

Didn't Prince Harry go there too recently? Seems nothing has changed then.

There's a book called "On the Psychology of Military Incompetence" by Norman Dixon (thanks offered to Bernie Gunther , who put me onto this fascinating book years ago!) which does a good analysis of how come we get so many military idiots from our military colleges.
Things have changed slightly for the better, btw, but only since Sandhurst stopped being the purview of the monied classes, and concentrated more on merit and intellect - so only the last 20 years, really, and that hasn't fed through to the upper echelons yet, who're still staffed with the same old same old as Elphinstone.

 

[ViolentPanda]

double post

 

[tony.c]

Listening to Radio 4 this morning and one interviewee (can't remember name) was saying that another reason Farage would not want to stand for Newark was that if he became an MP he would be under much more media coverage and public scrutiny in the British Parliament. He would not just be able to get away with the 'ordinary bloke in the pub' PR image, and this would probably damage their electoral chances in next year's General Election.
Sounds like a good point to me.

 

[butchersapron]

Yeah, the great British media - holding MPs to account since...when exactly?

 

[Spanky Longhorn]

I think their 'game-plan' is to gain a sufficient number of MPs in the 2015 GE to hold the balance of power over a tory minority administration. The problem with this plan is, of course, the difficulty of them gaining more than one or two seats.

I don't.

I think their plan is simply to get as many people elected to whatever office they can so as to push the agenda in the direction they want to move it. The last thing they want is any real power or responsibility

 

[brogdale]

I don't.

I think their plan is simply to get as many people elected to whatever office they can so as to push the agenda in the direction they want to move it. The last thing they want is any real power or responsibility

I don't think we're as far apart as you might suppose on this. In saying that they might aspire to hold some balance of power, I am obviously suggesting that UKIP seek political power...but that's not really controversial; that's generally regarded as a defining feature of most conventional political parties which you appear to doubt in the case of UKIP. But, I think my interpretation of hoping to hold enough representation is not very distinct from your 'get as many people elected' strategy. Have you ever played around with the numbers on "Electoral Calculus"? Accepting it's methodological weaknesses, it does indicate just how difficult it will be for UKIP to gain more than a couple of Westminster seats. For instance, these extraordinary %s still see UKIP gaining only 3 seats in the GE:-

Con 28%, Lab 30%, LD 9%, UKIP 24%. (..and I don't think many would put any money on those numbers actually occurring).

 

[belboid]

I see the Patriotic Socialist Party are putting up a candidate. A 19 year old also standing in Kirklees the same day.

 

[Brechin Sprout]

And now the big guns come out

http://www.nottinghampost.com/Bus-P...ark-election/story-21062677-detail/story.html

 

[brogdale]

Very small 'straw in the wind' and all that.....but.....

Council by-election results like this one will start to unsettle the tories in Newark. Yes, the vermin did in this instance hold the safe council seat, but that 33% UKIP "from nowhere" has pretty much come from former Lab/LD voters piling in. Could be a very damaging model of 'tactical voting'/disaffection that could see 'safe' tories unseated?

Party 2014 votes 2014 share since 2011 "top"since 2011 "average" 2007 result
Conservative 763 48.1% -8.8% -5.9%3 unopposed
UKIP 537 33.8% from nowhere from nowhere
Labour 193 12.1% -14.6% -16.4%
Independent 70 4.4% from nowhere from nowhere
Lib Dem 24 1.5% -14.8% -15.9%
Total votes 1,589 -618 -480

 

[brogdale]

First poll

The Tories are ahead in this poll for the Sun by Survation, but down nearly 18% since the general election, but with a strong campaign, I can see either UKIP or Labour winning, the fact that UKIP are up over 24% since the General Election, compared to 4.7% that Labour are up since the election, shows the momentum is with UKIP.

The normal caveats that this just one poll, this raises an interesting dilemma for Labour, and their supporters?

Do they vote Labour with the prize of winning the seat. It would do a lot for Ed and Labour’s nerves if they could win a seat that Labour won under the Blair landslide (even if the boundaries have changed since then)

Or do they vote tactically for UKIP?

Tough times if you’re part of the tactical voting Tory alliance, we will find out next week.

Vulnerable.