Patrick Mercer to resign. By-Election incoming.

[belboid]

Do we know what time the expected result is?

about two, apparently

Turnout could be as high as 58%

 

[Puddy_Tat]

A friend of mine has been up there canvassing / whatever they call it when you're standing outside a polling station on the day - for the greens this week.

(and at getting sent to a polling station near one of the remaining coal fired power stations)

he's predicting a fairly comfortable tory win.

 

[belboid]

3am they're saying now. cant be arsed with that

(Labour saying it's 'a clear tory win')

 

[belboid]

Libscum could be as low as 2%

 

[butchersapron]

That's quite good for them in a parliamentary by election isn't it?

 

[shagnasty]

Libscum could be as low as 2%

now that i do like,their taking odds on the libdems gettting less than 5% so the bookies may have to pay out

 

[belboid]

That's quite good for them in a parliamentary by election isn't it?

only if they beat bus pass elvis as well

UKIP have conceded, apparently

 

[belboid]

indie hospital campaigner 1891
bus pass elvis 87
monster raving loony 168
indie 117
ukip 10028 (26%)
cons 17431
green 1057
lab 6842
anti bank person 64
libscum 1004 (2.6%)
patriotic socialist party 18

59 rejects

 

[chilango]

That's quite good for them in a parliamentary by election isn't it?

Worst post-war by-election result for them according to the Bbc.

The Lib Dems' 1,004 votes represents their worst performance in a post-war English by-election.

 

[brogdale]

Well, the tories damn well should win this seat. (It's no co-incidence that Farage declined the opportunity) Large parts of the south of the seat are filled with the type of tory supporter are the antithesis of disaffected; they've done very well out of the tory government, and any farmers with their heads screwed on should run a mile from any party that proposes separating them from their subsidies.

Of some interest, though, is the polling; two outfits have produced quite distinct numbers...will be interesting to see if Ashcroft's impressive sample size really does equate to a more accurate forecast, or whether Survation's decision not to re-allocate the DKs is closer to the mark.

Actual result (rounded):-

Con 45%
UKIP 26%
Lab 18%
Ind 5%
Gre 3%
LD 3%

Top marks to Ashcroft.

 

[Garek]

I don't understand why all the papers are treating this as a Tory victory. They lost nigh on 10k votes, UKIP were up 22% and turnout collapsed by nearly 20%. If anything the real story is people are voting populist or not botheringto vote at all.

 

[brogdale]

I don't understand why all the papers are treating this as a Tory victory. They lost nigh on 10k votes, UKIP were up 22% and turnout collapsed by nearly 20%. If anything the real story is people are voting populist or not botheringto vote at all.

Agreed. Clear sartorial victory to the LDs

 

[redsquirrel]

indie hospital campaigner 1891
libscum 1004 (2.6%)

 

[brogdale]

Graphically...

 

[belboid]

The hospital campaigner was about 43 votes off getting their deposit back, which would have been nice. Otherwise, good result. 6th place, who'd have thought it

 

[Wilf]

Gawd, fucking look at 'em - British democracy!

 

[Kaka Tim]

Why did UKIP put up a joke candidate though? with some one halfway credible - i.e not a fully paid up bufton tufton buffoon - they would have given the tories a run for their money.

 

[JHE]

I don't understand why all the papers are treating this as a Tory victory.

It's because (i) the Tories won and (ii) some people thought that UKIP's momentum after the Euro elections might get them their first MP and that hasn't happened.