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Patrick Mercer to resign. By-Election incoming.

butchersapron said:
Piece of piss
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You think they have an experienced and large enough Get Out To Vote operation?

You think that Labour voters will switch to UKIP if it's not just a protest but theres a perceived chance of victory?

Is there a reason for your talking up the chances? It 's hard to see talk of overturning 16000 being "piece of piss" as anything else.
 
taffboy gwyrdd said:
You think they have an experienced and large enough Get Out To Vote operation?

You think that Labour voters will switch to UKIP if it's not just a protest but theres a perceived chance of victory?

Is there a reason for your talking up the chances? It 's hard to see talk of overturning 16000 being "piece of piss" as anything else.
Click to expand...
Who is the they here?

Yes.

It's staring you in the face.
 
Obvious who the they is from context and what the thread is about.

So try answering the question?

Are you admitting to talking up the chances?

I saw elsewhere a calculation you did to justify your claim, but I'm skeptical especially about the idea of thousands of labour switchers, and even the tory ones aint a foregone.

Not saying a creditable second isn't on the cards, even a close run thing.

But "piece of piss" is beyond even predicting a victory and I think quite a lot of your guesstimate is based on supposition. A person who didn't know of you better might almost think you want them to do well, in some perverse kind of way.
 
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Below is a post from another board by someone who's a superb analyst despite his centre right politics:

Labour won the old Newark in 1997 - but only just, on a landslide vote. This version of Newark is more Tory-friendly, leaving out Retford and containing more of rural Nottinghamshire, and would probably have been a Conservative hold in 1997.

I think UKIP's chances here are being overblown. I made a very rough estimate of their vote in this constituency in the 2013 locals. They came third after Labour, with the Conservatives in the low forties. There is a solid Tory vote which is more affluent than the usual UKIP vote.

There will definitely be anger at Mercer, and it's just possible to see the combination of this anger and a post-Euros UKIP bounce pushing the party over the top. But my initial prediction is a Conservative hold on a reduced majority, especially as the main parties have expected this to happen for some months.
 
farmerbarleymow said:
Is Mercer on the right wing of the party thus the hatred of Cameron?...
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he is further right than Cameron - though in the current tory party thats not hard, but he's not on the swivel-eyed loon wing - his problem with Cameron, and indeed the front bench, is much more personal than purely political.

the view would be hugely dismissive, a 'know-nothing, done-nothing, silver spoon PR gimp with the moral fibre of wet cardboard' would probably cover it...

of course, Cameron hasn't been caught on the take, so he can at least take comfort in that.
 
taffboy gwyrdd said:
Obvious who the they is from context and what the thread is about.

So try answering the question?

Are you admitting to talking up the chances?

I saw elsewhere a calculation you did to justify your claim, but I'm skeptical especially about the idea of thousands of labour switchers, and even the tory ones aint a foregone.

Not saying a creditable second isn't on the cards, even a close run thing.

But "piece of piss" is beyond even predicting a victory and I think quite a lot of your guesstimate is based on supposition. A person who didn't know of you better might almost think you want them to do well, in some perverse kind of way.
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What claim? Where did i do a calculation elsewhere?

I do want them to do well, i want them to win.
 
Yes it was. Yes it is. UKIP. Why do you do this?

Now answer mine if you can manage to avoid more obfuscating.

You think they have an experienced and large enough Get Out To Vote operation?

You think that Labour voters will switch to UKIP if it's not just a protest but theres a perceived chance of victory?

Is there a reason for your talking up the chances?
 
The calculation elsewhere was on the UKIP thread? Today or yesterday. Are you suffering memory issues?

Why do you want them to win?

Sick of the NHS in public hands?
 
taffboy gwyrdd said:
Below is a post from another board by someone who's a superb analyst despite his centre right politics:

...

There will definitely be anger at Mercer
Click to expand...


I think anger will be muted because he's done the decent thing and resigned. 'Clean slate' and all that. I know that in 2010 a large part of my not voting Labour in Luton South was Margaret Moran and her shenanigans. Had she resigned earlier and the Labour candidate not backed her, I may well have voted differently.
 
Oh did you lie? thought of going into politics?

And now you don't have to address issues because, well because you said so.

You pretend to not understand obvious questions and you evade when it doesn't suit you.

You think they have an experienced and large enough Get Out To Vote operation?

You think that Labour voters will switch to UKIP if it's not just a protest but theres a perceived chance of victory?

Is there a reason for your talking up the chances?
 
Sorry if I fell foul of Poe's law and your astonishing wit Butchers, but the questions are relevant (maybe the third less so)

Dodge them if you want of course, I'm used to nothing less.
 
taffboy gwyrdd said:
Oh did you lie? thought of going into politics?

And now you don't have to address issues because, well because you said so.

You pretend to not understand obvious questions and you evade when it doesn't suit you.

You think they have an experienced and large enough Get Out To Vote operation?

You think that Labour voters will switch to UKIP if it's not just a protest but theres a perceived chance of victory?

Is there a reason for your talking up the chances?
Click to expand...
What? Any chance of you responding to my posts - i know it's draughty up there, but make an effort please.
 
Quartz said:
I think anger will be muted because he's done the decent thing and resigned. 'Clean slate' and all that. I know that in 2010 a large part of my not voting Labour in Luton South was Margaret Moran and her shenanigans. Had she resigned earlier and the Labour candidate not backed her, I may well have voted differently.
Click to expand...
Who won the seat?
 
For the record I don't actually want UKIP to win.

I'd like Bone to win it for Class War :thumbs:

But in the realm of what's possible on the night I can find things to enjoy in a potential UKIP victory.
 
butchersapron said:
Bizzare outburst. To what end?
Click to expand...

What outburst?

Just some reasonable questions. Your reaction is bizzare but wait.... you didn't get round to answering the questions. The usual MO is in place and I can't see why it would persuade anyone beyond you.

Do you think they have have an experienced and large enough Get Out To Vote operation? (for clarity, the "they" here is UKIP)

Do you think that Labour voters will switch to UKIP if it's not just a protest but there's a perceived chance of victory?

I await your next wriggle.
 
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