Patrick Mercer to resign. By-Election incoming.

[butchersapron]

What outburst?

Just some reasonable questions. Your reaction is bizzare but wait.... you didn't get round to answering the questions. The usual MO is in place and I can't see why it would persuade anyone beyond you.

Do you think they have have an experienced and large enough Get Out To Vote operation? (for clarity, the "they" here is UKIP)

Do you think that Labour voters will switch to UKIP if it's not just a protest but there's a perceived chance of victory?

I await your next wriggle.

Oddly enough, I answered this on Saturday night, days before you even asked.

Farages bottling it will cost a few thousand votes, might come to be seen as a fatal error.

 

[Kaka Tim]

Wonder if Boris is tempted?

 

[Dogsauce]

That doesn't look good for him. I can understand why, he probably wants more certainty. It'd probably hold him up to more policy scrutiny too, and he tends to come across a bit oily when pushed for specifics.

The guy already has a job anyway, not that he can be able to find much time for it amidst the media circus.

 

[Awesome Wells]

I bet Charlotte Leslie read about this and had kittens!

 

[Dogsauce]

It could be that he had no serious intention of running, but playing it up in the Tory press only for him to apparently decline gives the loyal press a way of making him look like he's chickening out. Is that their game?

 

[butchersapron]

He's obviously working to a longer term plan with another seat already chosen and groundwork being put in place. Politicians should be able to grasp opportunities like this though, especially opportunistic ones! Where's your warrior spirit farage?

 

[Dogsauce]

Does this mean Labour might have a more serious crack at the seat, supplemented by LD defectors? I read boundary changes have probably killed their chances.

It's also clear the Tory guy is a parachute, probably a Bright Young Cameronite, which will be an easy target for UKIP railing against career politicians. The older, UKIP leaning Tories would sooner vote for someone more like themselves I reckon.

 

[brogdale]

He's obviously working to a longer term plan with another seat already chosen and groundwork being put in place. Politicians should be able to grasp opportunities like this though, especially opportunistic ones! Where's your warrior spirit farage?

Yeah, short-term this bottling will give tories the opportunity to throw more mud...but the decision will probably worry CCHQ more in the longer run. Farage shows that he is much more of a politician than he pretends to the electorate.

 

[brogdale]

Does this mean Labour might have a more serious crack at the seat, supplemented by LD defectors? .

No.

 

[brogdale]

Good call....

1. 
   So assuming that the purples do well in the Euros the by-election would be seen as a key indicator as to whether their surge is continuing. That’s where it gets very tricky. The last thing they want is for the bubble to burst within weeks of their expected May 22 successes.

With Farage as candidate any outcome in Newark less than a victory would be seen as a defeat. The party’s had some good by-election performances in terms of vote shares – but for Westminster seats you need to come top and that’s eluded them.

Their best ever in a Westminster seat was at Eastleigh fourteen months ago when there was a great clamour for Farage to be the flag carrier. They came pretty close and their 27.8% was the highest the party has ever achieved in a Westminster seat.

I’d be very surprised if Farage does go for it – but then one of his great characteristics is his ability to surprise.

http://www1.politicalbetting.com/in...n-newark-if-they-are-90-certain-that-hed-win/


'Toodles!'

 

[Spanky Longhorn]

It was a difficult one for Farage I can see why he bottled it, but I agree it might harm him in the long run. I would also add that if he had been narrowly defeated by the Tories then he could have easily played up to the plucky outsider only beaten by the combined forces of the elite (which would be true).

 

[Louis MacNeice]

I think Farage has played this quite well, keeping to his I'm/we're not like all the others script. UKIPs longterm planning must have been focussing on the locals and Euros; there doesn't seem to be much in it for them to go all in on a high risk by election.

Cheers - Louis MacNeice

 

[Quartz]

Is this constituency within Farage's Euro constituency?

 

[butchersapron]

Is this constituency within Farage's Euro constituency?

No.

 

[Dogsauce]

If Mercer had resigned after the Euros, with UKIP having done better than expected, Farage could have used that momentum I reckon. At the moment it'd be a distraction. Could they put forward candidates after the euro election?

Are there any existing Euro MPs that are also party MPs? Is it allowed? I thought some of the SF guys had both, but they don't turn up at Westminster.

 

[butchersapron]

Nope, it's one or the other now. Used to be allowed.

 

[Spanky Longhorn]

Yes due to the Northern Irish habit of collecting seats I'm sure I remember Ian Paisley being an MP, MEP, MLA, and councillor all at once (along with his church duties)

 

[Teaboy]

I think Farage has played this quite well, keeping to his I'm/we're not like all the others script. UKIPs longterm planning must have been focussing on the locals and Euros; there doesn't seem to be much in it for them to go all in on a high risk by election.

Cheers - Louis MacNeice

Yeah me too.

The important thing is he hasn't dithered and has a couple of ready made excuses in the importance of the upcoming euros and his lack of links to the area. Whilst it may do a bit of short term damage I can't help feeling defeat at the by-election would have done more damage, 16,000 is a huge majority whichever way you look at it and having to stand on stage grinning away whilst his defeat was broadcast to the whole nation, well that could seriously derail the UKIP train very soon after the euros success.

 

[tony.c]

I think Farage has played this quite well, keeping to his I'm/we're not like all the others script. UKIPs longterm planning must have been focussing on the locals and Euros; there doesn't seem to be much in it for them to go all in on a high risk by election.

I agree. Farage was on tv saying that it wasn't the right constituency for him, and that UKIP prefers local working class candidates for parliamentary elections. If they lose and come second he can claim it was because he didn't stand, and if they win he can claim a huge victory indicating further seats at the GE next year.

 

[articul8]

A bit hard for him to go hard at the Tories on cash for questions given he's got Neil Hamilton on his side

 

[butchersapron]

A bit hard for him to go hard at the Tories on cash for questions given he's got Neil Hamilton on his side

No he hasn't.

 

[articul8]

?

 

[butchersapron]

He was demoted and hidden away ages ago and is now looking for a back to knife.

 

[articul8]

he has a media profile higher than virtually anyone else in UKIP

 

[butchersapron]

he has a media profile higher than virtually anyone else in UKIP

Maybe so, but Farage has demoted him, dropped him from heading the election campaign - they are not unaware of the problems with him. And i suspect he's going to try and cause them some trouble whilst they bundle him out the door. See his BNP comments the other day for example.

 

[Dogsauce]

Somewhere around the country right now a labour and a Tory hack will be fighting over a chicken costume inside a fancy dress shop.

 

[ViolentPanda]

I don't think so. Dave's got him where he wants him.

Yep, outside the Parliamentary party.

 

[ViolentPanda]

As an officer and a gentleman, surely, Patrick should be taking the honourable way out.

Yes, but with one of these fine British revolvers,

not a piece of American tat as in your picture above!

he is after all, as you say, an officer and a gentleman.

 

[brogdale]

Writ moved...it'll be Thursday June 5th.

 

[kebabking]

...he is after all, as you say, an officer and a gentleman.

ah, the Ante room, the Mess Webley and 'a few moments to consider the future..'. saved a fortune in Courts Martial and bad publicity.

as long as the individual leaves his possessions to the Regiment - the Mercians i believe the H&W Foresters were absorbed into - i think we should bring it back...