New Zealand election 2020

[teqniq]

I've been paying a bit of attention to this via Twitter. Labour has an unheard-of lead. Obvously it's not over 'till it's over (September 19th). But with the way this appears now...

Newshub-Reid Research Poll: Collins fails to save National, party in disarray

National has dropped to just 25.1 percent in the latest Newshub-Reid Research Poll.

www.newshub.co.nz

As an added bonus Arron Banks and Andrew Wigmore thought they were going to creat 'mayhem and mischief' by providing social media strategy advice to the National party. This looks to have well and truly pissed on their chips

 

[teqniq]

Wrt to Banks and Wigmore, This person on Twitter would have it otherwise (short thread)

 

[Idris2002]

When I was down there in 2008, Helen Clarke was Labour PM, but Labour as a party seemed to be in long-term decline. Will Ardern be a shot in the arm over the long-term? Let's see. . .

 

[Idris2002]

Wrt to Banks and Wigmore, This person on Twitter would have it otherwise (short thread)

The problem here is that Peters is a lunatic who is largely popular with coffin dodgers, and nobody else.

 

[Streathamite]

Obvously it's not over 'till it's over (September 19th). But with the way this appears now...

That's a hellish long election campaign. Any idea why so long?

 

[teqniq]

That's a hellish long election campaign. Any idea why so long?

No

 

[Idris2002]

The election's been postponed since the last posts on this thread. But I just saw this and thought it was interesting:

Will NZ First make it back into Parliament?

One of the most interesting questions about the current election campaign is will New Zealand First make it back into Parliament after the election, with polling and a slew of not dissimilar partie…

thestandard.org.nz

Basically, the world may not have Winston Peters to kick around for much longer. The nutter vote in Aotearoa is being split by five nutter parties, which are squeezing Peters' New Zealand First very badly. Peters is something of a nutter himself, but his socially conservative economically (relatively) left party is an interesting response to neoliberalism. With hindsight it can be seen as an early avatar of the right wing populism that is currently making waves all over the world.

 

[Idris2002]

New poll:

Colmar Brunton poll: Labour still way ahead

Judith will not enjoy this poll result.

thestandard.org.nz

Looks good for Labour, looks bad for National.

I'm a bit suprised that the loony-tunes libertarian Association of Citizens and Taxpayers are on 7% mind.

 

[Dom Traynor]

Not seen this thread before.

If we fail to get a Labour / Green coalition it will be Labour voters complacency that causes the defeat, it won't be a lack of love for the Labour party or the PM among the electorate especially the lower paid working classes who really see Labour and their party at the moment.

That could still happen the polls are narrowing, the Nats are focusing on fighting dirty and Labour are resting on their almost flawless handling of COViD almost too much.

What should be of interest to the left is that if we do get a soley Labour Green government there will be in the first year legislation to enable compulsory industry bargaining if initiated by the unions, against a backdrop of newly confident unionism despite 10% density in the private sector.

That could be a game changer for organised workers if delivered properly and fully taken advantage of.

ACTs resurgence seems to be due to the weakness and disorganisation of the Nats and capture of some of the alt right types who were disappointed by NZ First supporting Labour, and anger around the tightened up firearm legislation.

As for whether Labour are in long term decline they were but it has to be said that Arderns leadership has led to a resurgence, whether it will last is another matter.

 

[redsquirrel]

If we fail to get a Labour / Green coalition it will be Labour voters complacency that causes the defeat, it won't be a lack of love for the Labour party or the PM among the electorate especially the lower paid working classes who really see Labour and their party at the moment.

Is there any polling providing information on the breakdown on the Labour vote?

 

[Dom Traynor]

Is there any polling providing information on the breakdown on the Labour vote?

Colmar Brunton get criticised for slightly exaggerated swings not sure why but here is the full report of their latest poll

1 NEWS Poll - Colmar Brunton

www.colmarbrunton.co.nz

You have to scroll to the bottom of the first part of the page

 

[redsquirrel]

Colmar Brunton get criticised for slightly exaggerated swings not sure why but here is the full report of their latest poll

1 NEWS Poll - Colmar Brunton

www.colmarbrunton.co.nz

You have to scroll to the bottom of the first part of the page

Thanks, maybe I'm being dense but that does not really provide any information on the breakdown of the vote.
For any BPS pollster you have the breakdown of respondents male/female; region; social class etc

 

[Dom Traynor]

Yeah I realise that however its the only breakdown of any sort I've seen.

My anecdotal evidence from phone banking is lower paid browner people leaning strongly Labour, better paid (90k+) whiter workers being split more 50/50 Labour / Nat.

ETA: but also Jacinda really appeals across the gender divide and the racial and class divides, although seems to be least popular with fifty something white men.

 

[peterkro]

Wiki page has links to what polls there are.I'm not in the slightest interested in polling but you may find it useful:

Opinion polling for the 2020 New Zealand general election - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[Idris2002]

I did the occasional political poll when I was in market research (not in New Zealand). "No one should see laws or sausages being made" was what that experience evoked.

 

[teqniq]

 

[Streathamite]

View attachment 234459

Pretty much a done deal then. Absolute walkover for Labour

 

[retribution]

We were in NZ in Feb-March and visited the Beehive (Parliament) for free, unannounced with a really good informative tour. i think it was one of the last days before they shut down tours due to COVID. From what I recall, a Lab majority would be unprecedented, is that right?

Let's not forget that there's a referendum to legalise weed in NZ on the same day, too.

 

[Dom Traynor]

The poll tecniq posted is bonkers and completely different to the normal recent ones which are more like 46/45% Labour, 32% Nat.

Having said that NZ F will probably be out, the Māori Party might sneak in with literally one seat and (Libertarian / alt right / "classical liberal") ACT will do very well for them and Greens will just hang in there

And it's currently looking like 55% will vote against cannabis legalisation sadly and 51% for murdering elderly poor in hospital which is what the end of life referendum is about.

 

[JTG]

From what I recall, a Lab majority would be unprecedented, is that right?

Yep. Nobody has won a majority since NZ abandoned FPTP in 1996. They use mixed member proportional voting - same as the Scottish & Welsh Parliaments. If Labour win a majority then they'll have done what the SNP have been doing and effectively broken the system that nearly guarantees coalition governments.

Having said that NZ F will probably be out, the Māori Party might sneak in with literally one seat and (Libertarian / alt right / "classical liberal") ACT will do very well for them and Greens will just hang in there

I think NZF are just on the cusp aren't they? If they fail to get a constituency seat then they won't get a top up either as there's a 5% vote share threshold

 

[Fruitloop]

The problem here is that Peters is a lunatic who is largely popular with coffin dodgers, and nobody else.

Winston Pizza as he used to be known, as apparently when he was younger he pretended to be Italian

 

[Idris2002]

Winston Pizza as he used to be known, as apparently when he was younger he pretended to be Italian

Yeah, I heard that one when I was in Auckland. About his being "creative" with his background, I mean, not the pizza gag.

I remember when he was still in the National Party in the 1980s, the (London) Daily Telegraph bigged him up as a living refutation of lefty multiculturalism ("look, NZ's senior Maori politico - and he's a conservative" was the basic line, even if his relationship to "Maori-ness" is "problematic" as those awful young people say).

 

[Fruitloop]

I think he literally has no political compass whatsoever, and is just purely driven by opportunism and ambition, so no wonder the Torygraph identify with him.

 

[Argonia]

If they vote to legalise weed I'm packing my bags and moving out there. My grandfather came from New Zealand so it would be like coming home.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Winston Pizza as he used to be known, as apparently when he was younger he pretended to be Italian

Easy to make fun of that, but it's also a sorry indictment of the racism of NZ at the time, no? A version of 'passing'.

 

[Idris2002]

Anyway, big day's tomorrow.

Have a read of this.

Jacinda or Judith?

With election day tomorrow those who have not voted already need to decide, do they want Jacinda Ardern or Judith Collins to be the next Prime Minister.

thestandard.org.nz

 

[Fruitloop]

Easy to make fun of that, but it's also a sorry indictment of the racism of NZ at the time, no? A version of 'passing'.

I dunno. The history and indeed the present of race-relations in NZ is far from perfect, but I think he is just a sleazeball and the rumor was he did it to impress the ladies.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

I dunno. The history and indeed the present of race-relations in NZ is far from perfect, but I think he is just a sleazeball and the rumor was he did it to impress the ladies.

Not Maori ladies though eh? Is not the story there 'part-Maori man tries to pass as italian to gain acceptance with white people in a racist white-majority society'?

 

[Dom Traynor]

Yep. Nobody has won a majority since NZ abandoned FPTP in 1996. They use mixed member proportional voting - same as the Scottish & Welsh Parliaments. If Labour win a majority then they'll have done what the SNP have been doing and effectively broken the system that nearly guarantees coalition governments.


I think NZF are just on the cusp aren't they? If they fail to get a constituency seat then they won't get a top up either as there's a 5% vote share threshold

NZ First have no chance of an electorate seat and are polling around the 3 - 4 % mark, so yes very unlikely they will get in.

I've spent the day reminding Labour votes to go and vote and it feels like my electorate which had recently moved from marginal National to safe national due to boundary changes may actually go Labour.

NZ First are heavily Māori at the leadership and activist level and are basically a populist conservative party.

Winston was a protege of Bob Muldoon who was the great last PM (and is sometimes described as a socialist nationalist) of the post war welfare state, Winston is keen on what he sees as old fashioned conservatism, looking after pensioners, and the racing industry.

In reality Muldoon was your dad's rightwing mate down the pub.

 

[Serge Forward]

In reality Muldoon was your dad's rightwing mate down the pub

And he banned that Peter Cook record - though, to be fair, it was an unpleasant song.