Malaysia Airlines Boeing 777 vanishes without trace

[5t3IIa]

2hats Breathe, matey. I know it's exciting but you're going to give yourself an injury

A local (Reunion) journalist has just reported that well weathered fragments of what might be some luggage have been found in the same area as the aircraft debris.

Nnnngh

 

[Pickman's model]

Nnnngh

 

[Spymaster]

This debris and any other could be used as bayesian priors to constrain the underwater search area.

That's handy.

In Bayesian statistical inference, a prior probability distribution, often called simply the prior, of an uncertain quantity is the probability distribution p that would express one's beliefs about this quantity before some evidence is taken into account. It is meant to attribute uncertainty, rather than randomness, to the quantity. The unknown quantity may be a parameter or latent variable.

One applies Bayes' theorem, multiplying the prior by the liklihood and then normalizing, to get the posterior probability distribution, which is the conditional distribution of the uncertain quantity, given the data.

Piece of piss really.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prior_probability

 

[Minnie_the_Minx]

Conspiracy theorists who reckon it's on Diego Garcia will probably claim the passengers were offloaded on DG and the plane dumped a couple of thousand miles away

 

[2hats]

It's a cross between a flap and an aileron.

It operates as a flap (drag inducing, lowers stall speed) for takeoff/landing and as an aileron (control surface) at higher speeds.

 

[Minnie_the_Minx]

I remember getting really worried the first time I went on a plane and seeing those flaps move. I thought the plane was broken

 

[2hats]

I remember getting really worried the first time I went on a plane and seeing those flaps move. I thought the plane was broken

Unlike ailerons/flaps, the flaperons are left to move freely during take off; they are in bypass mode with no hydraulic force applied to reduce stress on the actuators from the initial surge of direct engine thrust (they are immediately behind each engine exit nozzle). As V1 approaches hydraulic control is re-enabled. So during the roll down the runway they will tend to pitch up and down with the airflow/jet thrust turbulence rather than being fixed/commanded perhaps giving the impression that they are somewhat 'loose'. On landing they respond in proportion to the degree of speedbrake selected in order to shed lift and so discourage the aircraft from rising. Once the speedbrake is off they are left to move freely again.

 

[Pickman's model]

Unlike ailerons/flaps, the flaperons are left to move freely during take off; they are in bypass mode with no hydraulic force applied to reduce stress on the actuators from the initial surge of direct engine thrust (they are immediately behind each engine exit nozzle). As V1 approaches hydraulic control is re-enabled. So during the roll down the runway they will tend to pitch up and down with the airflow/jet thrust turbulence rather than being fixed/commanded perhaps giving the impression that they are somewhat 'loose'. On landing they respond in proportion to the degree of speedbrake selected in order to shed lift and so discourage the aircraft from rising. Once the speedbrake is off they are left to move freely again.

this one seems to have moved fairly freely

 

[5t3IIa]

this one seems to have moved fairly freely

Weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee bob bob bob

 

[Pickman's model]

Weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee bob bob bob

just so

 

[2hats]

serial numbers

It is quite possible there are no serial numbers as they are most likely on separate plates that have probably fallen off (impact and/or weathering), unless there are small components still attached (perhaps not likely) with their own numbers etched on.

e2a: though there is a slight possibility that on the internal surfaces, perhaps below protective primer, they might find the original Boeing assembly codes handwritten on airframe parts:

 

[2hats]

Referring to post 1710 upthread:

This debris is being shipped to BEA facilities in Toulouse for analysis.

 

[2hats]

The French authorities in Reunion are conducting aerial surveys of the coastline for further debris and urging locals to keep an eye out and report anything they find.

 

[a_chap]

Unlike ailerons/flaps, the flaperons ....

Dear 2hats,

Just like to say how very impressed and grateful I am for the astonishing insight+knowledge you've brought to this thread right from the start.

Ta extremely much.

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

And so say most of us!

 

[twentythreedom]

I would like to award him an extra hat

 

[a_chap]

3hats

 

[twentythreedom]

3hats

He can have as many as he likes as far as I'm concerned

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

Steady on 23dom

 

[twentythreedom]

Steady on 23dom

Ok, 4 hats. 5 on the weekend and bank holidays

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

If he finds Glen Miller he can have a sixth hat at Easter.

 

[a_chap]

If he finds Glen Miller he can have a sixth hat at Easter.

My Dad saw Glen Miller play during the war.

Would be lovely to bring Glen Miller back.

Even more lovely to bring my Dad back...

 

[2hats]

I have 2 x 2hats, still.

(purposefully cryptic message)

 

[laptop]

Hmm. It's a 777 wing part. Only two 777 wings have been lost anywhere near the sea. Therefore...

Not so fast?

David Gleave, an air accident investigator, said: “...it is possible to buy these parts should you wish to confuse things."

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/jul/30/mh370-aircraft-debris-flown-to-france-for-analysis

Who he?

http://www.pprune.org/where-they-now/544141-who-david-gleave.html

A student. Less of a student than our own 2*2hats.

 

[5t3IIa]

The flaperon is on it's way to Toulouse today, I think? No solid news for 24 hours at least, I guess.

 

[bi0boy]

Another one for the Guardian going downhill thread

 

[Pickman's model]

Another one for the Guardian going downhill thread

 

[bi0boy]

Saved to important gifs folder

 

[2hats]

Somewhat unfortunately the people who found the flaperon started cleaning it when they recovered it. Luckily, one of their number realised it might be significant and halted the procedure.

Whilst 'hidden' manufacturing/assembly marks will pin it to the originating airframe (if such can be found in a strip down), analysis of the attached marine life may also prove critical. It may be possible to derive time in the water and constrain the original location and path taken by the debris from both the variety of barnacle, nature and stage of their growth and from associated parasites and viruses/bacteria on and within said barnacles.

 

[Pickman's model]

Somewhat unfortunately the people who found the flaperon started cleaning it when they recovered it. Luckily, one of their number realised it might be significant and halted the procedure.

Whilst 'hidden' manufacturing/assembly marks will pin it to the originating airframe (if such can be found in a strip down), analysis of the attached marine life may also prove critical. It may be possible to derive time in the water and constrain the original location and path taken by the debris from both the variety of barnacle, nature and stage of their growth and from associated parasites and viruses/bacteria on and within said barnacles.

not a problem: all they have to do is get hold of the cleaning equipment which may yet hold marine dna