Malaysia Airlines Boeing 777 vanishes without trace

[equationgirl]

The French prosecutor's statement seemed slightly less committed ("strong indication it is from MH370" apparently based on technical information* provided by Malaysia Airlines) but did confirm that detailed forensic analysis would commence tomorrow following the initial inspections performed today.

e2a: * the technical information referred to may be characteristic and unique markings specific to Malaysia Airlines maintenance procedures for this type.

Thanks for the update.

 

[a_chap]

According to the 9pm BBC news it's been confirmed that the flaperon is part of MH370.

 

[2hats]

Some news outlets (mainly via AFP it seems) are reporting on the discovery of further plane debris (window, insulation, seat cushions) on Reunion by a team from Malaysian Airlines (one would hope better at selecting suspect airplane parts than random locals/police/etc). Items reported as being handed over to the French for analysis.

 

[5t3IIa]

What is up with this guy and his premature pronouncements?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-33794012

Part of the aircraft wing found on Reunion Island is from the missing MH370 plane, Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak has confirmed.

Mr Najib said experts examining the debris in France had "conclusively confirmed" it was from the aircraft.

But the investigators have stopped short of confirming the link, saying only that it is highly likely.

 

[2hats]

Either they are privy to other information shared amongst the investigators and want to release it first (though they aren't explaining themselves very well, either because they aren't that well organised or aren't in a position to divulge the key information leading to the conclusions or just don't want to), OR they have additional information that they haven't shared (fully) yet (ie their own team on the ground has found something conclusive based on what they know about that specific aircraft) OR they are simply not as thorough as the French (want to be).

 

[laptop]

Either they are privy to other information shared amongst the investigators and want to release it first (though they aren't explaining themselves very well, either because they aren't that well organised or aren't in a position to divulge the key information leading to the conclusions or just don't want to), OR they have additional information that they haven't shared (fully) yet (ie their own team on the ground has found something conclusive based on what they know about that specific aircraft) OR they are simply not as thorough as the French (want to be).

Or the French understand that they'll get better co-operation from the Malaysians if they let them feel they appear to be making the running...

 

[2hats]

Some technical details behind the Malaysians' certainty over the flaperon coming from MH370: the Prime Minister Najib is reported as stating that a maintenance seal and paint match those used by Malaysian Airlines and a serial number tallies with that specific airframe.

 

[5t3IIa]

Here is some Reddit business about loose flaperons that might be about the planet https://np.reddit.com/r/MH370/comments/3fxyib/alternate_flaperon_sources/

 

[2hats]

There are reports of what may be airframe parts being washed up on a beach in the Maldives.

e2a: photo - could just as easily be part of some boat hull

 

[2hats]

Here is some Reddit business about loose flaperons that might be about the planet https://np.reddit.com/r/MH370/comments/3fxyib/alternate_flaperon_sources/

Note the comments (above) by the Malaysian prime minister concerning features which positively tie this particular flaperon to the MAS fleet.

 

[2hats]

The authorities in Reunion have initiated a visual aerial debris search of the sea surface to the east of the island from aircraft, estimated to last a week. Surface ships and helicopters will be used to inspect any items of interest. At the same time soldiers have been tasked to make a sweep of the coastline.

 

[2hats]

Or the French understand that they'll get better co-operation from the Malaysians if they let them feel they appear to be making the running...

Except there are reports of friction between the French and Malaysian authorities over various matters.

 

[laptop]

Except there are reports of friction between the French and Malaysian authorities over various matters.

So, if leaking to Malaysia so it could make an announcement was tried, it didn't work.

 

[2hats]

So, if leaking to Malaysia so it could make an announcement was tried, it didn't work.

As members of the investigatory team (along with the Australians, Chinese, French, US and British) their representatives would have been informed in advance. So probably not leaked to them in that sense/for that reason anyway.

 

[2hats]

A French investigating judge plans to travel to Malaysia as part of his probe into the fate of MH370, deepening France’s involvement in the search for answers to the jet’s mysterious disappearance. The move is likely to heighten scrutiny of Malaysia’s handling of its criminal investigation into the plane, which didn’t implicate anyone on board.

Questions still surround the recent discovery of a section of an airplane wing found roughly a week ago on [Reunion]. Malaysia Airlines officials are convinced the recovered wing section, called a flaperon, came from the missing Boeing 777. But a team of investigators led by Alain Gaudino, a French counterterrorism judge examining the flaperon at a military laboratory near Toulouse, isn’t yet certain. French investigators have said the flaperon very likely came from the missing jet but “want more undeniable evidence before they are willing to say the flaperon broke off Flight 370”. “They know it’s a Boeing 777, but today they have no proof at all that it’s coming from MH370.”

French investigators drilled into the recovered wing section, searching for signs of a maintenance seal that Malaysian authorities documented when the missing jet previously underwent repairs. The findings of the French investigators didn’t match the Malaysian records. Malaysian officials, however, believe the discrepancies aren’t significant enough to challenge their conclusion.

Malaysia’s transport minister said this week that paint on the wing section helped identify it as coming from the missing jet, but Gaudino said that the paint on the component appeared to come from its manufacturer, Boeing, not Malaysia Airlines.

“To my knowledge, there isn’t paint specific to Malaysia Airlines”, said a spokesperson for Gaudino. In addition, the wing section’s placard, containing a serial number, appears to have fallen off. To confirm the piece is from Flight 370, the experts will now have to examine parts in the interior of the flaperon, find their serial numbers, and match them if possible to parts known to have been inside the Flight 370 flaperon. Investigators are also trying to match records with an identifying mark on a portion of the internal structure that would establish the flaperon’s origin.

Some safety experts said Malaysian authorities seem to be repeating some of their earlier missteps in prematurely announcing that debris has been found, only to have to later walk it back. Malaysian officials promised to coordinate more closely with foreign counterparts after coming under widespread criticism for repeated miscommunication at the outset of the probe. French authorities opened a separate criminal investigation months ago, because four French nationals were on the plane. Since then, Mr. Gaudino has been waiting for Malaysian authorities to turn over information, including files from Malaysia’s own criminal investigation and satellite data used to identify where the jet may have crashed, French officials said.

“We have no reason to think the information won’t be transmitted,” said Gaudino's spokesperson.

Source: WSJ.

 

[2hats]

The Daily Fail seems to be getting excited over some category 3 objects ("sonar contacts that are of some interest as they stand out from their surroundings but have low probability of being significant to the search", contrary to their claim in their article) spotted recently by Fugro/Phoenix in the main ocean bed search area which could just as easily be sunken shipping containers.

Spoiler: Fail link

Fail article

 

[Bob_the_lost]

The thread title is incorrect

 

[laptop]

which could just as easily be sunken shipping containers.

Spoiler: Fail link

Fail article

Indeed, by eye the proportions are just right for 20-foot ISO containers...

E2A: the absence of anything resembling a scale bar is not helping get beyond "proportions". They could be Lego, if the sonar were impossibly sensitive

E2A2: the article looks like a whinge from the pictured Steve Duffield, the managing director of Fugro Survey, who fears that his lucrative contract may be canned. And what it mostly demonstrates is that the beaches of Réunion have had a good tidy-up recently.

 

[2hats]

Indeed, by eye the proportions are just right for 20-foot ISO containers...

E2A: the absence of anything resembling a scale bar is not helping get beyond "proportions". They could be Lego, if the sonar were impossibly sensitive

Actually, the scale in each direction might not be linear anyway so imaged objects could be distorted in an ever varying fashion, their aspect ratios incorrect, making interpretation more difficult.

 

[2hats]

The French prosecutor has this afternoon announced that, after technical investigations, "it is now possible to state with certainty that the flaperon discovered in Reunion, on 29 July 2015, is from flight MH370."

The identification was made after endoscopic inspection of the inside of the flaperon revealed serial numbers which could positively be tied (by the subcontractor who manufactured it) to the part that was fitted to the 777 in question.

 

[2hats]

Some developments which are now relevant given the previous posting...

Metron, who conducted the Bayesian analysis of the AF447 debris field and search in order to narrow down and help locate the airframe on the seabed, have circulated a memorandum in which, accounting for the discovery of the flaperon on Reunion and factoring in the Indian Ocean circulation model of van Sebille et al, they determine that:

positions in the northerly part of the arc of possible aircraft locations published by the Australian Transportation Safety Board are roughly 10 times more likely to be the source of the flaperon than the more southerly areas that are now being searched. Posterior probability distributions calculated from these likelihood functions indicate a northward shift in the search should be considered

Analyses both with no priors and priors suggest searching to the north of the current surveyed area might be worthwhile:

​

Similarly, a group of researchers at the Geomar Helmholtz Centre for Oceanography in Kiel have performed simulations, using another circulation model, which point to the part coming from the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean (further north along the 7th arc):


e2a: Both results tie in with the model results illustrated in post 1748, though it is not clear to what degree, if any, they use the same ocean circulation models.

 

[Idris2002]

Now new claims of wreckage and a skeleton being found off a Filipino island.

MH370 claim: Wreckage with pilot skeleton and Malaysian Airlines colours found - World - NZ Herald News

 

[Pickman's model]

it's a story that just keeps on giving

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

Spooky skellingtongz in time for Halloween

 

[equationgirl]

Now new claims of wreckage and a skeleton being found off a Filipino island.

MH370 claim: Wreckage with pilot skeleton and Malaysian Airlines colours found - World - NZ Herald News

That sounds like the local variant of 'i know a bloke down the pub who swears...'

 

[2hats]

This year's World Radiocommunication Conference (currently under way in Geneva) has reached agreement on the radio spectrum allocations necessary to facilitate the reception of ADS-B signals via satellite which is a necessary first step towards building a global flight tracking system. Guidelines for tracking will be developed over the next year to be published in November 2016.

 

[Pickman's model]

This year's World Radiocommunication Conference (currently under way in Geneva) has reached agreement on the radio spectrum allocations necessary to facilitate the reception of ADS-B signals via satellite which is a necessary first step towards building a global flight tracking system. Guidelines for tracking will be developed over the next year to be published in November 2016.

let's hope some other pilot doesn't go off the radar before then.

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

Very glad that there are people who can sort that kind of shit out for us, but if any fucker who's attended the World Radiocommunications Conference ever try's to engage me in conversation, justifiable homicide.

 

[laptop]

Very glad that there are people who can sort that kind of shit out for us, but if any fucker who's attended the World Radiocommunications Conference ever try's to engage me in conversation, justifiable homicide.

What if they're also very interesting about the works of Virginia Woolf? Detrot techno, more likely?


(((attendees of deep geek gigs)))

 

[2hats]

On 19 December 2015, an anomalous sonar contact was identified in the course of the underwater search, with analysis suggesting the object was likely to be man-made, probably a shipwreck. Havila Harmony was tasked with further examination of the contact using the AUV. On 2 January 2016, the AUV captured high-resolution sonar imagery of the contact, confirming that it was indeed the wreck of a ship.

The Shipwreck Galleries of the Western Australian Museum have conducted a preliminary review of some sonar imagery and advised that the vessel is likely to be a steel/iron vessel dating from the turn of the 19th Century.